New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The New York Yankees face the Baltimore Orioles in a regular-season MLB matchup on 13 May at 6:35 PM ET. The market's 3% implied probability for a Yankees victory reflects substantial confidence in an Orioles win, despite the Yankees' historical franchise strength and recent competitive positioning within the AL East.

The current pricing sits well below the Yankees' typical win probability in regular-season games against divisional opponents. Historical context suggests that single-game markets between established teams rarely settle at such extreme probabilities unless one side faces documented roster depletion or injury crisis. The Yankees' baseline win expectancy against Baltimore typically ranges between 45–55%, depending on pitching matchups and recent form. A 3% probability implies either severe roster constraints for New York or exceptionally favourable conditions for Baltimore—factors that would need to be substantive rather than marginal to justify such an outlier valuation.

Traders should monitor starting pitcher announcements, which typically finalise 24–48 hours before game time and represent the primary catalyst affecting single-game probabilities. Recent injury reports from both organisations, available through MLB's official injury tracker and team statements, will clarify whether either side faces unexpected absences. Weather conditions at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on game day may also influence betting patterns, particularly wind direction affecting fly-ball carry. The settlement window extends to 20 May, allowing for postponement scenarios under MLB's weather protocols.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.