How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.

New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs | Election Predictions — 80% Yes

Name: New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs
Start: 2026-07-25T13:00:39.000Z
End: 2026-08-07T18:20:00.000Z

Platform comparison

Platform	YES odds	NO odds	Fee	KYC	Settlement
Polymarket (via Election Predictions UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker)	80%	20%	0% (USDC on-chain)	No-KYC up to $1,500	USDC, auto via UMA oracle	Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com	80%	20%	0%	Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU	USDC, on-chain	Trade this market →
Kalshi kalshi.com	—	—	Up to 7% per trade	US-only, KYC required	USD	Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange betfair.com	—	—	2-5% commission	Full KYC from first trade	GBP / EUR	Trade this market →
Manifold Markets manifold.markets	—	—	Play-money (mana)	None — play-money	Mana (no cash-out)	Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

Outcome	Probability
1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5	80%
1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5	68%
1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5	56%
O/U 8.5	56%
NRFI	52%
O/U 9.5	47%
1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5	45%
Spread -1.5	43%
New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs	42%
O/U 10.5	39%
1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5	36%
1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5	33%
Spread -2.5	32%
Spread -1.5	32%
1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5	23%
Spread -2.5	22%
Extra Innings	9%

Market context

The New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs prediction market currently prices this outcome at 80% YES. In the upcoming MLB game between the New York Yankees and Chicago Cubs, scheduled for July 31 at 2:20PM ET: This market will resolve to "New York Yankees" if the New York Yankees win the game. This …

Live Data & Statistics

The Polymarket order book prices 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 at 80% for "New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs".

1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 80% Other 20%

Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $153K.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?: Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.
What resolution source is used for elections?: Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.
Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?: Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.
Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?: Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.
Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?: Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.

David ParkSports Data Analystand

Oliver HughesBlockchain & Crypto Reporter

Trade New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs on Election Predictions UK

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New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs

Platform comparison

Outcome probabilities

Market context

Live Data & Statistics

Methodology

Resolution & payout

FAQ

Trade New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs on Election Predictions UK

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