New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The New York Yankees face the Cleveland Guardians on 9 June at 6:40PM ET in a regular-season Major League Baseball fixture. The crowd-implied probability of 53% for a Yankees victory reflects marginal favouritism, though the market remains competitive given the teams' comparable recent form and the inherent volatility of single-game outcomes in baseball.

Historical matchups between these franchises show relatively balanced results over recent seasons, with neither team holding decisive dominance in head-to-head play. The Yankees' larger payroll and market position typically confer a modest edge in season-long performance, yet the Guardians have demonstrated competitive strength, particularly in divisional play. Single-game probabilities in MLB rarely exceed 60% for favourites, as pitching matchups, bullpen availability, and injury status create substantial uncertainty. The current 53% reading aligns with conventional expectations for a game between teams of comparable mid-season standing.

Traders should monitor pitching assignments in the days preceding the fixture, as starter quality materially affects win probability. Recent injury reports from both organisations—particularly regarding key position players or relief arms—will shift the market. Weather conditions at the venue on game day, including wind direction and temperature, influence offensive output and should be tracked through meteorological forecasts. Cleveland's home-field advantage, if applicable, would typically narrow the Yankees' edge. The settlement window extends to 16 June, allowing for postponement resolution should weather or scheduling disruptions occur.

Methodology

This page tracks New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. Election Predictions UK routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Election Predictions UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Election Predictions UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.