Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the Major League Baseball game between the Philadelphia Phillies and the New York Mets, played at Citi Field on 26 June 2026, which the Phillies won decisively. With the crowd-implied probability locked at 100% YES for a Phillies victory, the market reflects the certainty of the outcome now that the game has concluded and official statistics confirm the result.

Historically, prediction markets that reach 100% certainty before settlement typically mirror cases where the event has already finished and the resolution source—here, MLB’s official final statistics—has unambiguously validated the winner. Comparable instances in sports markets show that once a game ends with a clear win and no tie or cancellation, markets collapse to absolute certainty, eliminating any remaining volatility. This pattern aligns with the current 100% pricing, as the Phillies’ 45–36 scoreline and confirmed win leave no room for alternative outcomes.

Traders should monitor the official MLB resolution announcement and any subsequent data corrections, though no such adjustments are expected given the game’s finality. The primary catalyst the market leans on is the confirmed final score and win declaration from MLB, as reported by ESPN and CBS Sports, which serve as the definitive resolution sources. No pending announcements, schedule changes, or campaign-finance disclosures affect this market, as the event is complete and the outcome is settled.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Election Predictions UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Election Predictions UK?

Zero. Election Predictions UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Election Predictions UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.