How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phill…

Name: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Start: 2026-06-24T13:02:27.516Z
End: 2026-07-07T22:40:00.000Z

Platform comparison

Platform	YES odds	NO odds	Fee	KYC	Settlement
Polymarket (via Election Predictions UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker)	76%	24%	0% (USDC on-chain)	No-KYC up to $1,500	USDC, auto via UMA oracle	Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com	76%	24%	0%	Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU	USDC, on-chain	Trade this market →
Kalshi kalshi.com	—	—	Up to 7% per trade	US-only, KYC required	USD	Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange betfair.com	—	—	2-5% commission	Full KYC from first trade	GBP / EUR	Trade this market →
Manifold Markets manifold.markets	—	—	Play-money (mana)	None — play-money	Mana (no cash-out)	Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

Outcome	Probability
1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5	76%
1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5	61%
O/U 8.5	51%
Spread -1.5	50%
NRFI	48%
1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5	48%
1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5	47%
1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5	36%
1st 5 Innings Spread -2.5	34%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies	33%
1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5	27%
1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5	17%
Extra Innings	11%
1st 5 Innings Spread -2.5	10%

Market context

Live Polymarket data shows 76% YES probability for Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies. In the upcoming MLB game between the Pittsburgh Pirates and Philadelphia Phillies, scheduled for June 30 at 6:40PM ET: This market will resolve to "Pittsburgh Pirates" if the Pittsburgh Pirates win t…

Live Data & Statistics

The Polymarket order book prices 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 at 76% for "Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies".

1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 76% Other 24%

Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $158K.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?: Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.
What resolution source is used for elections?: Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.
Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?: Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.
How fast do political markets react to news?: High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.
Are political prediction markets legal in my country?: It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

David ParkSports Data Analystand

Oliver HughesBlockchain & Crypto Reporter

Trade Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies on Election Predictions UK

Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.

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Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Platform comparison

Outcome probabilities

Market context

Live Data & Statistics

Methodology

Resolution & payout

FAQ

Trade Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies on Election Predictions UK

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