Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PolyGram Pick polygram.ink |
78% | 22% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open on PolyGram → |
Polymarket polymarket.com |
78% | 22% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open on PolyGram → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open on PolyGram → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open on PolyGram → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open on PolyGram → |
Live odds for Polymarket-based markets come from the Polygon order book. Non-Polymarket venues show attributes only; clicking any row opens the market on PolyGram.
Active sub-markets
Market context
The San Francisco Giants visit the Arizona Diamondbacks in a regular-season MLB game, with the market currently pricing the Giants at 45% to win. That leaves the Diamondbacks as the slight favourite, which is consistent with recent form: Arizona opened the series with a 12-2 win on 18 May, then added a 5-3 win on the next night, while the Giants have struggled to contain the D-backs’ bats in this matchup. Over the last 20 meetings, Arizona has been roughly even or slightly ahead, and the longer head-to-head record still favours San Francisco, so the market is balancing recent results against the wider historical edge.
For traders, the main catalyst is the starting-pitching and line-up context rather than any broader trend. MLB’s game preview notes Justin Verlander has posted a 0.69 ERA in two starts this month, while Brandon Pfaadt is 0-4 with a 5.11 ERA in five career starts against the Giants, a split that helps explain why the matchup is close despite Arizona’s recent wins. ESPN’s team coverage and MLB’s official preview both point to the game’s importance as the immediate form guide: if Arizona’s offence continues to pressure the Giants early, the current underdog price on San Francisco may remain justified, but a strong Verlander outing would quickly narrow that gap.
Methodology
Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.
Resolution & payout
For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?
- Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.
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