Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Election Predictions UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
91% | 9% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
91% | 9% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 209.5 | 91% |
| O/U 211.5 | 88% |
| O/U 213.5 | 85% |
| O/U 215.5 | 83% |
| Spread -2.5 | 79% |
| O/U 217.5 | 79% |
| O/U 219.5 | 75% |
| Spread -4.5 | 74% |
| O/U 221.5 | 73% |
| Spread -5.5 | 71% |
| O/U 223.5 | 69% |
| Spread -6.5 | 68% |
| O/U 225.5 | 65% |
| Spread -7.5 | 64% |
| O/U 226.5 | 63% |
| O/U 227.5 | 62% |
| Spread -8.5 | 61% |
| Spread -10.5 | 56% |
| O/U 229.5 | 56% |
| Egor Demin: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 52% |
| Spread -11.5 | 51% |
| O/U 231.5 | 51% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 51% |
| James Harden: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| Team to Score First | 50% |
| Odd/Even Score | 50% |
| Overtime? | 50% |
| Race to 10 | 50% |
| Race to 20 | 50% |
| Race to 30 | 50% |
| O/U 232.5 | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| 1H O/U 118.5 | 50% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Jaylon Tyson: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Sam Merrill: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Jarrett Allen: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jarrett Allen: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Day'Ron Sharpe: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Egor Demin: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Julius Randle: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Keon Ellis: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Keon Ellis: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Keon Ellis: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Michael Porter Jr.: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Day'Ron Sharpe: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Day'Ron Sharpe: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Julius Randle: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Keon Ellis: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Keon Ellis: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Keon Ellis: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Michael Porter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Peyton Watson: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Assists O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| James Harden: Assists O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| James Harden: Assists O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Julius Randle: Assists O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Donovan Mitchell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Jaylon Tyson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Julius Randle: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Keon Ellis: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Keon Ellis: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Keon Ellis: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Peyton Watson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Peyton Watson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Day'Ron Sharpe: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Day'Ron Sharpe: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Day'Ron Sharpe: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Egor Demin: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Egor Demin: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Egor Demin: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| James Harden: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| James Harden: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| James Harden: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Julius Randle: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Julius Randle: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Julius Randle: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Keon Ellis: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Keon Ellis: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Keon Ellis: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Michael Porter Jr.: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Michael Porter Jr.: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Michael Porter Jr.: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Peyton Watson: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Peyton Watson: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Day'Ron Sharpe: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Day'Ron Sharpe: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Evan Mobley: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Evan Mobley: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Evan Mobley: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Jarrett Allen: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Jarrett Allen: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jarrett Allen: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Keon Ellis: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Keon Ellis: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Peyton Watson: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Peyton Watson: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Evan Mobley: Points O/U 9.5 | 49% |
| Jarrett Allen: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 49% |
| Jaylon Tyson: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Julius Randle: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 49% |
| Michael Porter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 49% |
| James Harden: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 49% |
| Spread -12.5 | 48% |
| O/U 233.5 | 48% |
| Peyton Watson: Points O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| Jaylon Tyson: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 48% |
| Michael Porter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 48% |
| Michael Porter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 48% |
| Peyton Watson: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 48% |
| Peyton Watson: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 48% |
| Keon Ellis: Assists O/U 3.5 | 48% |
| Egor Demin: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 48% |
| Evan Mobley: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 48% |
| Sam Merrill: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 48% |
| Sam Merrill: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 48% |
| 1H O/U 119.5 | 47% |
| James Harden: Points O/U 9.5 | 47% |
| James Harden: Points O/U 14.5 | 47% |
| Day'Ron Sharpe: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 47% |
| Day'Ron Sharpe: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 47% |
| Day'Ron Sharpe: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 47% |
| Day'Ron Sharpe: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 47% |
| Day'Ron Sharpe: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 47% |
| Peyton Watson: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 47% |
| Evan Mobley: Assists O/U 1.5 | 47% |
| O/U 234.5 | 46% |
| Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 46% |
| Day'Ron Sharpe: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 46% |
| Egor Demin: Assists O/U 1.5 | 46% |
| Michael Porter Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 46% |
| Spread -13.5 | 45% |
| James Harden: Assists O/U 11.5 | 45% |
| Jaylon Tyson: Points O/U 9.5 | 44% |
| Jarrett Allen: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 44% |
| Michael Porter Jr.: Points O/U 14.5 | 43% |
| Julius Randle: Assists O/U 3.5 | 43% |
| Donovan Mitchell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 43% |
| O/U 235.5 | 42% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 19.5 | 42% |
| Day'Ron Sharpe: Assists O/U 1.5 | 42% |
| O/U 236.5 | 41% |
| Spread -14.5 | 41% |
| Evan Mobley: Assists O/U 3.5 | 41% |
| Jarrett Allen: Points O/U 9.5 | 41% |
| Julius Randle: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 40% |
| Julius Randle: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 40% |
| Michael Porter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 40% |
| Spread -15.5 | 39% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 39% |
| Julius Randle: Assists O/U 5.5 | 39% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Assists O/U 3.5 | 39% |
| James Harden: Assists O/U 5.5 | 39% |
| O/U 237.5 | 38% |
| James Harden: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 38% |
| Evan Mobley: Points O/U 14.5 | 37% |
| James Harden: Points O/U 34.5 | 37% |
| Julius Randle: Points O/U 14.5 | 37% |
| Keon Ellis: Assists O/U 1.5 | 37% |
| Evan Mobley: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 37% |
| Spread -16.5 | 36% |
| Michael Porter Jr.: Assists O/U 1.5 | 35% |
| Michael Porter Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 35% |
| O/U 239.5 | 34% |
| Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 34% |
| Michael Porter Jr.: Points O/U 19.5 | 34% |
| Egor Demin: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 34% |
| Sam Merrill: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 34% |
| Peyton Watson: Assists O/U 1.5 | 33% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 24.5 | 33% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 33% |
| James Harden: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 33% |
| O/U 240.5 | 32% |
| Egor Demin: Points O/U 9.5 | 32% |
| Jaylon Tyson: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 32% |
| Spread -18.5 | 31% |
| Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 31% |
| Jarrett Allen: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 31% |
| James Harden: Assists O/U 6.5 | 30% |
| Jarrett Allen: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 30% |
| Jarrett Allen: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 30% |
| Day'Ron Sharpe: Points O/U 9.5 | 30% |
| Donovan Mitchell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 30% |
| Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 29% |
| O/U 242.5 | 28% |
| James Harden: Points O/U 17.5 | 28% |
| Evan Mobley: Points O/U 17.5 | 28% |
| Jarrett Allen: Points O/U 12.5 | 28% |
| Peyton Watson: Points O/U 12.5 | 28% |
| Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 8.5 | 28% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 28% |
| Jaylon Tyson: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 28% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Assists O/U 4.5 | 28% |
| Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 28% |
| James Harden: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 28% |
| Julius Randle: Points O/U 19.5 | 28% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 26.5 | 27% |
| James Harden: Points O/U 29.5 | 27% |
| James Harden: Points O/U 39.5 | 27% |
| James Harden: Points O/U 44.5 | 27% |
| Peyton Watson: Points O/U 24.5 | 27% |
| Egor Demin: Assists O/U 3.5 | 27% |
| Spread -20.5 | 26% |
| Spread -21.5 | 25% |
| Jarrett Allen: Rebounds O/U 8.5 | 25% |
| Peyton Watson: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 25% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 39.5 | 25% |
| Egor Demin: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 25% |
| James Harden: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 25% |
| James Harden: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 24% |
| Julius Randle: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 24% |
| O/U 245.5 | 23% |
| Julius Randle: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 23% |
| James Harden: Assists O/U 7.5 | 23% |
| Jarrett Allen: Assists O/U 1.5 | 23% |
| Jaylon Tyson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 23% |
| Michael Porter Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 23% |
| Spread -22.5 | 22% |
| Evan Mobley: Points O/U 19.5 | 22% |
| James Harden: Points O/U 19.5 | 22% |
| Jarrett Allen: Points O/U 14.5 | 22% |
| Sam Merrill: Points O/U 9.5 | 22% |
| Julius Randle: Points O/U 24.5 | 22% |
| Egor Demin: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 22% |
| Peyton Watson: Points O/U 14.5 | 21% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 29.5 | 20% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 20% |
| Michael Porter Jr.: Points O/U 24.5 | 20% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Assists O/U 5.5 | 20% |
| Day'Ron Sharpe: Points O/U 14.5 | 19% |
| Jaylon Tyson: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 19% |
| Day'Ron Sharpe: Assists O/U 3.5 | 19% |
| Donovan Mitchell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 19% |
| Nets vs. Cavaliers | 18% |
| Spread -24.5 | 18% |
| O/U 248.5 | 18% |
| Spread -1.5 | 16% |
| Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 16% |
| James Harden: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 16% |
| Michael Porter Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 16% |
| O/U 251.5 | 15% |
| Spread -26.5 | 14% |
| Egor Demin: Points O/U 14.5 | 14% |
| Julius Randle: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 14% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Assists O/U 9.5 | 14% |
| James Harden: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 14% |
| Spread -3.5 | 13% |
| Michael Porter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 13% |
| James Harden: Assists O/U 9.5 | 13% |
| Julius Randle: Assists O/U 9.5 | 13% |
| Egor Demin: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 13% |
| Julius Randle: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 13% |
| Sam Merrill: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 13% |
| Evan Mobley: Points O/U 29.5 | 12% |
| Jarrett Allen: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 12% |
| Michael Porter Jr.: Points O/U 34.5 | 12% |
| Egor Demin: Assists O/U 5.5 | 12% |
| Julius Randle: Assists O/U 7.5 | 12% |
| Michael Porter Jr.: Assists O/U 3.5 | 12% |
| Donovan Mitchell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 12% |
| Jaylon Tyson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 12% |
| Peyton Watson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 12% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 34.5 | 11% |
| James Harden: Points O/U 24.5 | 11% |
| Jaylon Tyson: Points O/U 14.5 | 11% |
| Michael Porter Jr.: Points O/U 29.5 | 11% |
| Michael Porter Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 11% |
| Spread -5.5 | 10% |
| Spread -28.5 | 10% |
| Evan Mobley: Points O/U 24.5 | 10% |
| Jarrett Allen: Points O/U 19.5 | 10% |
| Jarrett Allen: Points O/U 24.5 | 10% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Assists O/U 7.5 | 10% |
| Evan Mobley: Assists O/U 5.5 | 10% |
| Peyton Watson: Assists O/U 3.5 | 10% |
| Evan Mobley: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 10% |
| Peyton Watson: Points O/U 19.5 | 9% |
| Sam Merrill: Points O/U 14.5 | 9% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 9% |
| Julius Randle: Points O/U 34.5 | 9% |
| Egor Demin: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 9% |
| Jaylon Tyson: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 9% |
| Egor Demin: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 9% |
| Spread -7.5 | 8% |
| Spread -30.5 | 8% |
| Julius Randle: Points O/U 29.5 | 8% |
| Julius Randle: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 8% |
| Sam Merrill: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 8% |
| Egor Demin: Points O/U 19.5 | 7% |
| Peyton Watson: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 7% |
| Day'Ron Sharpe: Assists O/U 5.5 | 7% |
| Jaylon Tyson: Points O/U 19.5 | 7% |
| Egor Demin: Assists O/U 7.5 | 7% |
| Jaylon Tyson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 7% |
| Peyton Watson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 7% |
| Spread -9.5 | 6% |
| Spread -32.5 | 6% |
| James Harden: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 6% |
| Day'Ron Sharpe: Points O/U 19.5 | 6% |
| Jarrett Allen: Assists O/U 3.5 | 6% |
| Evan Mobley: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 6% |
| Egor Demin: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 6% |
| Spread -34.5 | 5% |
| Evan Mobley: Assists O/U 7.5 | 5% |
| Michael Porter Jr.: Assists O/U 5.5 | 5% |
| Spread -11.5 | 4% |
| Spread -13.5 | 4% |
| Spread -17.5 | 3% |
| Spread -36.5 | 3% |
| Spread -38.5 | 3% |
| Spread -15.5 | 2% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 91% probability to nets vs. cavaliers. In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 24 at 7:30PM ET: If the Nets win, the market will resolve to "Nets". If the Cavaliers win, the market will resolve to "Cavaliers". If the game is postpo…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $83K.
Methodology
Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Nets vs. Cavaliers plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.
Resolution & payout
Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- How accurate are political prediction markets?
- Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.
- Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?
- Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.
- How fast do political markets react to news?
- High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.
- Are political prediction markets legal in my country?
- It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.
- Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?
- Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.
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