Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Election Predictions UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
96% | 4% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
96% | 4% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1Q O/U 42.5 | 96% |
| 1H O/U 91.5 | 94% |
| O/U 201.5 | 93% |
| O/U 203.5 | 92% |
| 1Q O/U 44.5 | 92% |
| Mavericks O/U 100.5 | 92% |
| 1H O/U 93.5 | 92% |
| 1H O/U 95.5 | 90% |
| O/U 205.5 | 89% |
| Pascal Siakam: Points O/U 9.5 | 89% |
| P.J. Washington: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 89% |
| 1Q O/U 46.5 | 88% |
| Mavericks O/U 102.5 | 88% |
| O/U 207.5 | 87% |
| 1H O/U 97.5 | 87% |
| Pacers O/U 98.5 | 87% |
| Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 14.5 | 86% |
| O/U 209.5 | 85% |
| Kyrie Irving: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 84% |
| Cooper Flagg: Assists O/U 3.5 | 84% |
| Mavericks O/U 104.5 | 84% |
| Pacers O/U 100.5 | 83% |
| O/U 211.5 | 82% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Points O/U 9.5 | 82% |
| 1Q O/U 48.5 | 82% |
| 1H O/U 99.5 | 82% |
| Kyrie Irving: Points O/U 14.5 | 81% |
| Andrew Nembhard: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 80% |
| O/U 213.5 | 79% |
| Pascal Siakam: Points O/U 14.5 | 79% |
| Mavericks O/U 106.5 | 79% |
| Ivica Zubac: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 78% |
| Pascal Siakam: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 78% |
| 2Q O/U 48.5 | 77% |
| 1H O/U 101.5 | 77% |
| Pacers O/U 102.5 | 77% |
| Pascal Siakam: Assists O/U 1.5 | 76% |
| Mavericks 1H O/U 50.5 | 76% |
| O/U 215.5 | 75% |
| Santi Aldama: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 75% |
| 1Q O/U 50.5 | 74% |
| Mavericks O/U 108.5 | 74% |
| Kyrie Irving: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 73% |
| Pacers O/U 104.5 | 73% |
| Naji Marshall: Assists O/U 1.5 | 73% |
| O/U 217.5 | 72% |
| Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 19.5 | 72% |
| 1H O/U 103.5 | 72% |
| Pacers 1H O/U 51.5 | 71% |
| Pacers 1H O/U 49.5 | 71% |
| Cooper Flagg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 70% |
| O/U 219.5 | 68% |
| Obi Toppin: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 68% |
| Mavericks O/U 110.5 | 68% |
| P.J. Washington: Points O/U 9.5 | 67% |
| Mavericks 1H O/U 52.5 | 67% |
| Pacers O/U 106.5 | 67% |
| 1H O/U 105.5 | 66% |
| 2Q O/U 50.5 | 66% |
| Ivica Zubac: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 65% |
| Cooper Flagg: Assists O/U 5.5 | 65% |
| 3Q O/U 58.5 | 65% |
| 1Q O/U 52.5 | 65% |
| O/U 221.5 | 64% |
| Cooper Flagg: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 64% |
| P.J. Washington: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 64% |
| Aaron Nesmith: Points O/U 9.5 | 63% |
| O/U 222.5 | 63% |
| Pascal Siakam: Assists O/U 2.5 | 63% |
| 3Q O/U 56.5 | 63% |
| 4Q O/U 53.5 | 63% |
| 3Q O/U 52.5 | 63% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Assists O/U 5.5 | 62% |
| Kyrie Irving: Assists O/U 1.5 | 62% |
| Mavericks O/U 112.5 | 62% |
| Spread -1.5 | 61% |
| O/U 223.5 | 60% |
| Obi Toppin: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 60% |
| Kyrie Irving: Assists O/U 3.5 | 60% |
| Aaron Nesmith: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 60% |
| Pascal Siakam: Steals O/U 0.5 | 60% |
| 1H O/U 107.5 | 60% |
| Spread -2.5 | 59% |
| Pascal Siakam: Points O/U 19.5 | 59% |
| Daniel Gafford: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 59% |
| 2Q O/U 52.5 | 59% |
| Pacers O/U 108.5 | 59% |
| Ivica Zubac: Points O/U 9.5 | 58% |
| Aaron Nesmith: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 58% |
| Mavericks 1H O/U 54.5 | 58% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Steals O/U 0.5 | 57% |
| Pacers 1H O/U 53.5 | 57% |
| O/U 224.5 | 57% |
| Spread -3.5 | 56% |
| Daniel Gafford: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 56% |
| Pascal Siakam: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 56% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Assists O/U 3.5 | 56% |
| 1Q O/U 54.5 | 56% |
| 2Q O/U 53.5 | 56% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Points O/U 14.5 | 55% |
| 4Q O/U 55.5 | 55% |
| Mavericks O/U 114.5 | 55% |
| Mavericks 1H O/U 55.5 | 55% |
| Ivica Zubac: Assists O/U 1.5 | 55% |
| O/U 225.5 | 54% |
| P.J. Washington: Rebounds O/U 6.5 | 54% |
| Kyrie Irving: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 54% |
| Kyrie Irving: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 54% |
| P.J. Washington: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 54% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 54% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 54% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 54% |
| 1H O/U 109.5 | 54% |
| Santi Aldama: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 54% |
| Andrew Nembhard: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 53% |
| Pacers O/U 110.5 | 53% |
| Pascal Siakam: Points O/U 20.5 | 53% |
| O/U 226.5 | 53% |
| Naji Marshall: Points O/U 9.5 | 53% |
| Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 24.5 | 52% |
| Cooper Flagg: Assists O/U 6.5 | 52% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Assists O/U 6.5 | 52% |
| 2Q O/U 54.5 | 52% |
| 1Q O/U 55.5 | 52% |
| Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| 3Q O/U 54.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 51% |
| O/U 227.5 | 50% |
| Kyrie Irving: Points O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Team to Score First | 50% |
| Odd/Even Score | 50% |
| Overtime? | 50% |
| Race to 10 | 50% |
| Race to 20 | 50% |
| Race to 30 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| Pacers O/U 111.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks O/U 115.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks 2H O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| Pacers 2H O/U 55.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks 2H O/U 55.5 | 50% |
| Pacers 2H O/U 53.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks 2H O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Pacers 2H O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks 2H O/U 53.5 | 50% |
| Pacers 2H O/U 51.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks 2H O/U 61.5 | 50% |
| Pacers 2H O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Aaron Nesmith: Points O/U 4.5 | 49% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Points O/U 15.5 | 49% |
| Daniel Gafford: Points O/U 9.5 | 49% |
| Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 9.5 | 49% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 49% |
| Ivica Zubac: Points O/U 4.5 | 49% |
| Kyrie Irving: Points O/U 9.5 | 49% |
| Obi Toppin: Points O/U 4.5 | 49% |
| Cooper Flagg: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Daniel Gafford: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Ivica Zubac: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Ivica Zubac: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 49% |
| P.J. Washington: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Pascal Siakam: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Assists O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Cooper Flagg: Assists O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Steals O/U 2.5 | 49% |
| Mavericks 1H O/U 56.5 | 49% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 49% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 49% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 49% |
| 3Q O/U 59.5 | 49% |
| Pacers 1H O/U 54.5 | 49% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 49% |
| Naji Marshall: Points O/U 4.5 | 49% |
| Daniel Gafford: Rebounds O/U 6.5 | 48% |
| Ivica Zubac: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| Kyrie Irving: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 48% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 48% |
| 1H O/U 111.5 | 48% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 48% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 48% |
| P.J. Washington: Points O/U 13.5 | 48% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 48% |
| Spread -5.5 | 47% |
| Kyrie Irving: Points O/U 21.5 | 47% |
| Daniel Gafford: Points O/U 4.5 | 47% |
| Cooper Flagg: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 47% |
| 1Q O/U 56.5 | 47% |
| Mavericks O/U 116.5 | 47% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 47% |
| Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 25.5 | 46% |
| Aaron Nesmith: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 46% |
| Aaron Nesmith: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 46% |
| Obi Toppin: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 46% |
| Santi Aldama: Points O/U 24.5 | 46% |
| Santi Aldama: Points O/U 29.5 | 46% |
| Santi Aldama: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 46% |
| Santi Aldama: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 46% |
| Santi Aldama: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 46% |
| O/U 229.5 | 45% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 45% |
| 4Q O/U 57.5 | 45% |
| 3Q O/U 64.5 | 45% |
| Naji Marshall: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 45% |
| Spread -6.5 | 44% |
| Kyrie Irving: Assists O/U 4.5 | 44% |
| P.J. Washington: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 44% |
| Cooper Flagg: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 43% |
| Pascal Siakam: Rebounds O/U 6.5 | 43% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 43% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 43% |
| O/U 231.5 | 42% |
| P.J. Washington: Points O/U 14.5 | 42% |
| 2Q O/U 56.5 | 42% |
| Naji Marshall: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 42% |
| Spread -7.5 | 41% |
| P.J. Washington: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 41% |
| Obi Toppin: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 41% |
| Daniel Gafford: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 41% |
| 1H Moneyline | 41% |
| Mavericks O/U 118.5 | 41% |
| Cooper Flagg: Assists O/U 7.5 | 40% |
| Cooper Flagg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 40% |
| Cooper Flagg: Steals O/U 0.5 | 40% |
| Cooper Flagg: Steals O/U 1.5 | 40% |
| 1H O/U 113.5 | 40% |
| Naji Marshall: Assists O/U 3.5 | 40% |
| Pascal Siakam: Assists O/U 3.5 | 39% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 39% |
| Pascal Siakam: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 39% |
| Daniel Gafford: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 39% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 39% |
| Pacers O/U 114.5 | 39% |
| Mavericks 1H O/U 58.5 | 39% |
| Pacers vs. Mavericks | 38% |
| Spread -8.5 | 38% |
| Pascal Siakam: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 38% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 38% |
| 1Q O/U 58.5 | 38% |
| O/U 233.5 | 37% |
| Daniel Gafford: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 37% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Assists O/U 7.5 | 37% |
| Kyrie Irving: Steals O/U 0.5 | 37% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 37% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 37% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 37% |
| Spread -9.5 | 35% |
| Pacers O/U 112.5 | 35% |
| Mavericks O/U 120.5 | 35% |
| Spread -1.5 | 34% |
| Kyrie Irving: Points O/U 24.5 | 34% |
| Aaron Nesmith: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 34% |
| Kyrie Irving: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 34% |
| Kyrie Irving: Steals O/U 1.5 | 34% |
| Santi Aldama: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 34% |
| O/U 235.5 | 33% |
| Aaron Nesmith: Points O/U 14.5 | 33% |
| 3Q O/U 60.5 | 33% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 33% |
| Pacers O/U 116.5 | 33% |
| 1H O/U 115.5 | 33% |
| Naji Marshall: Assists O/U 2.5 | 33% |
| Pascal Siakam: Points O/U 24.5 | 32% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 32% |
| Spread -2.5 | 31% |
| P.J. Washington: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 31% |
| Obi Toppin: Points O/U 9.5 | 30% |
| Obi Toppin: Points O/U 14.5 | 30% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 30% |
| O/U 237.5 | 29% |
| Ivica Zubac: Points O/U 14.5 | 29% |
| Kyrie Irving: Assists O/U 5.5 | 29% |
| 3Q O/U 62.5 | 29% |
| Mavericks O/U 122.5 | 29% |
| Spread -11.5 | 28% |
| Ivica Zubac: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 28% |
| Andrew Nembhard: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 28% |
| Pacers 1H O/U 55.5 | 28% |
| Pacers 1H O/U 57.5 | 28% |
| 1Q O/U 60.5 | 28% |
| Pacers O/U 118.5 | 28% |
| 1H O/U 117.5 | 28% |
| Santi Aldama: Points O/U 9.5 | 28% |
| Santi Aldama: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 28% |
| Spread -4.5 | 27% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Points O/U 19.5 | 27% |
| Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 29.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 27% |
| Santi Aldama: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 26% |
| O/U 239.5 | 25% |
| Spread -13.5 | 25% |
| Obi Toppin: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 25% |
| Obi Toppin: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 24% |
| 1Q O/U 62.5 | 23% |
| Mavericks O/U 124.5 | 23% |
| O/U 241.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 22% |
| Pacers O/U 120.5 | 22% |
| 1H O/U 119.5 | 22% |
| Spread -6.5 | 21% |
| Kyrie Irving: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 21% |
| Spread -15.5 | 20% |
| Cooper Flagg: Assists O/U 9.5 | 20% |
| 1H Spread -11.5 | 20% |
| O/U 243.5 | 18% |
| Daniel Gafford: Points O/U 14.5 | 18% |
| Aaron Nesmith: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 18% |
| Pascal Siakam: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 18% |
| Cooper Flagg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 18% |
| Aaron Nesmith: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 18% |
| Spread -8.5 | 17% |
| Kyrie Irving: Points O/U 29.5 | 17% |
| Cooper Flagg: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 17% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Assists O/U 9.5 | 17% |
| Pascal Siakam: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 17% |
| Pascal Siakam: Steals O/U 1.5 | 17% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 17% |
| Pacers O/U 122.5 | 17% |
| 1H O/U 121.5 | 17% |
| Spread -17.5 | 16% |
| Daniel Gafford: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 16% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Steals O/U 1.5 | 16% |
| 1Q O/U 64.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 16% |
| O/U 245.5 | 15% |
| P.J. Washington: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 15% |
| P.J. Washington: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 14% |
| Naji Marshall: Points O/U 14.5 | 14% |
| Spread -10.5 | 13% |
| O/U 247.5 | 13% |
| Spread -19.5 | 13% |
| Aaron Nesmith: Points O/U 19.5 | 13% |
| Obi Toppin: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 13% |
| Cooper Flagg: Assists O/U 11.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 13% |
| 1H O/U 123.5 | 13% |
| Santi Aldama: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 13% |
| Pascal Siakam: Points O/U 29.5 | 12% |
| Kyrie Irving: Assists O/U 9.5 | 12% |
| Cooper Flagg: Steals O/U 2.5 | 12% |
| Daniel Gafford: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -15.5 | 12% |
| Naji Marshall: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 12% |
| Spread -12.5 | 11% |
| O/U 249.5 | 11% |
| P.J. Washington: Points O/U 19.5 | 11% |
| Ivica Zubac: Points O/U 19.5 | 11% |
| Kyrie Irving: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 11% |
| Ivica Zubac: Assists O/U 3.5 | 11% |
| Spread -21.5 | 10% |
| Ivica Zubac: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 10% |
| Kyrie Irving: Steals O/U 2.5 | 10% |
| 1Q O/U 66.5 | 10% |
| O/U 251.5 | 9% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 9% |
| Cooper Flagg: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 9% |
| Pascal Siakam: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -12.5 | 9% |
| Pascal Siakam: Steals O/U 2.5 | 9% |
| Naji Marshall: Assists O/U 5.5 | 9% |
| Spread -14.5 | 8% |
| Spread -23.5 | 8% |
| O/U 253.5 | 8% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Points O/U 24.5 | 8% |
| Obi Toppin: Points O/U 19.5 | 8% |
| Obi Toppin: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 8% |
| P.J. Washington: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 8% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Assists O/U 11.5 | 8% |
| Pascal Siakam: Assists O/U 5.5 | 8% |
| Andrew Nembhard: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 8% |
| Santi Aldama: Points O/U 14.5 | 8% |
| Santi Aldama: Points O/U 19.5 | 8% |
| O/U 255.5 | 7% |
| Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 34.5 | 7% |
| Daniel Gafford: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 7% |
| Ivica Zubac: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 7% |
| Kyrie Irving: Assists O/U 7.5 | 7% |
| Pascal Siakam: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 7% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 7% |
| Obi Toppin: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 7% |
| Spread -16.5 | 6% |
| Spread -25.5 | 6% |
| Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 39.5 | 6% |
| Kyrie Irving: Points O/U 34.5 | 6% |
| Pascal Siakam: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 6% |
| Aaron Nesmith: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 6% |
| 1H Spread -19.5 | 6% |
| Kyrie Irving: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 6% |
| Spread -18.5 | 5% |
| Spread -27.5 | 5% |
| O/U 257.5 | 5% |
| Daniel Gafford: Points O/U 19.5 | 5% |
| P.J. Washington: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 5% |
| Cooper Flagg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 5% |
| Spread -20.5 | 4% |
| Spread -22.5 | 4% |
| P.J. Washington: Points O/U 24.5 | 4% |
| Andrew Nembhard: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 4% |
| Kyrie Irving: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 4% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 4% |
| Spread -29.5 | 3% |
| Spread -31.5 | 3% |
| Pascal Siakam: Assists O/U 7.5 | 3% |
| Obi Toppin: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 3% |
| Pascal Siakam: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 3% |
| Cooper Flagg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 3% |
| Spread -24.5 | 1% |
Market context
Pacers vs. Mavericks — current market-implied probability: 96%. In the upcoming NBA game between Pacers and Mavericks, originally scheduled for Monday, November 9, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET (as of creation of the first market related to the event): If the Pacers win, the…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $904K.
Methodology
This page tracks Pacers vs. Mavericks across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Election Predictions UK provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.
Resolution & payout
Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- What resolution source is used for elections?
- Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.
- Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?
- Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.
- Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?
- Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.
- Are political prediction markets legal in my country?
- It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.
- Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?
- Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.
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