Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Election Predictions UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
94% | 6% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
94% | 6% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2Q O/U 44.5 | 94% |
| 1Q O/U 46.5 | 93% |
| O/U 211.5 | 92% |
| 3Q O/U 50.5 | 92% |
| 4Q O/U 47.5 | 91% |
| O/U 213.5 | 90% |
| O/U 215.5 | 89% |
| 1Q O/U 48.5 | 88% |
| Heat 1H O/U 49.5 | 88% |
| 3Q O/U 52.5 | 87% |
| O/U 217.5 | 86% |
| Kelly Oubre Jr.: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 85% |
| 4Q O/U 49.5 | 85% |
| O/U 219.5 | 84% |
| 2Q O/U 48.5 | 84% |
| Heat 1H O/U 51.5 | 83% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 82% |
| Bobby Portis: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 82% |
| 1Q O/U 50.5 | 82% |
| O/U 221.5 | 81% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 80% |
| Aaron Nesmith: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 80% |
| O/U 223.5 | 78% |
| 4Q O/U 51.5 | 78% |
| 2Q O/U 50.5 | 77% |
| Heat 1H O/U 53.5 | 77% |
| 1Q O/U 52.5 | 75% |
| O/U 225.5 | 74% |
| Pascal Siakam: Points O/U 14.5 | 73% |
| Andrew Wiggins: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 73% |
| Spread -1.5 | 72% |
| Davion Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 72% |
| 2Q O/U 46.5 | 72% |
| 1H O/U 106.5 | 71% |
| O/U 227.5 | 70% |
| Spread -2.5 | 69% |
| 2Q O/U 52.5 | 68% |
| Heat 1H O/U 55.5 | 68% |
| Pascal Siakam: Points O/U 19.5 | 67% |
| Aaron Nesmith: Points O/U 9.5 | 67% |
| Spread: Heat (-3.5) | 66% |
| O/U 229.5 | 66% |
| Pascal Siakam: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 66% |
| 1Q O/U 54.5 | 66% |
| 3Q O/U 54.5 | 66% |
| 3Q O/U 58.5 | 66% |
| 4Q O/U 53.5 | 66% |
| 1H O/U 110.5 | 65% |
| 1H O/U 120.5 | 65% |
| Jarace Walker: Assists O/U 1.5 | 65% |
| 1H O/U 108.5 | 64% |
| Spread -4.5 | 63% |
| Bam Adebayo: Points O/U 14.5 | 63% |
| Kelly Oubre Jr.: Points O/U 9.5 | 63% |
| O/U 231.5 | 62% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Points O/U 9.5 | 62% |
| Spread -5.5 | 61% |
| Kelly Oubre Jr.: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 61% |
| 1H O/U 104.5 | 61% |
| 3Q O/U 56.5 | 61% |
| Bobby Portis: Points O/U 9.5 | 60% |
| Davion Mitchell: Points O/U 9.5 | 60% |
| 2Q O/U 54.5 | 60% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 60% |
| Davion Mitchell: Assists O/U 5.5 | 59% |
| 1H O/U 102.5 | 59% |
| 1H O/U 112.5 | 59% |
| 1Q O/U 56.5 | 59% |
| 3Q O/U 60.5 | 59% |
| Heat O/U 120.5 | 59% |
| Heat 1H O/U 57.5 | 59% |
| O/U 233.5 | 58% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 58% |
| Spread -6.5 | 57% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 57% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Assists O/U 5.5 | 57% |
| Pascal Siakam: Assists O/U 3.5 | 57% |
| Bam Adebayo: Points O/U 17.5 | 56% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Assists O/U 1.5 | 56% |
| Klay Thompson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 56% |
| Davion Mitchell: Steals O/U 0.5 | 56% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Steals O/U 0.5 | 56% |
| Pacers O/U 112.5 | 56% |
| Spread -7.5 | 55% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 55% |
| Davion Mitchell: Assists O/U 6.5 | 55% |
| 4Q O/U 57.5 | 55% |
| O/U 235.5 | 54% |
| Jay Huff: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 54% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 54% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 54% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 54% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Points O/U 29.5 | 53% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 53% |
| 1H O/U 114.5 | 52% |
| Bobby Portis: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 52% |
| Kelly Oubre Jr.: Steals O/U 0.5 | 52% |
| 1H O/U 100.5 | 52% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 52% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 52% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 52% |
| Heat O/U 122.5 | 52% |
| Pacers O/U 120.5 | 52% |
| Heat 1H O/U 59.5 | 52% |
| Heat O/U 132.5 | 52% |
| O/U 236.5 | 52% |
| Race to 10 | 51% |
| Tim Hardaway Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Steals O/U 0.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 2Q O/U 56.5 | 51% |
| Heat O/U 126.5 | 51% |
| Pacers O/U 118.5 | 51% |
| Pacers 1H O/U 56.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 51% |
| Jarace Walker: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 51% |
| Jarace Walker: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| Team to Score First | 50% |
| Odd/Even Score | 50% |
| Overtime? | 50% |
| Race to 20 | 50% |
| Race to 30 | 50% |
| Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Bam Adebayo: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Bobby Portis: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Bam Adebayo: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Bam Adebayo: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Bobby Portis: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Pascal Siakam: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Davion Mitchell: Assists O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Assists O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Kelly Oubre Jr.: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Pascal Siakam: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 98.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 122.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 126.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 128.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 62.5 | 50% |
| Pacers O/U 100.5 | 50% |
| Pacers O/U 96.5 | 50% |
| Pacers O/U 98.5 | 50% |
| Pacers O/U 104.5 | 50% |
| Pacers O/U 106.5 | 50% |
| Heat O/U 114.5 | 50% |
| Pacers O/U 108.5 | 50% |
| Heat O/U 118.5 | 50% |
| Pacers O/U 110.5 | 50% |
| Heat 2H O/U 65.5 | 50% |
| Pacers 1H O/U 64.5 | 50% |
| Heat O/U 128.5 | 50% |
| Heat O/U 130.5 | 50% |
| Pacers O/U 124.5 | 50% |
| Pacers 1H O/U 44.5 | 50% |
| Pacers 1H O/U 46.5 | 50% |
| Pacers 1H O/U 48.5 | 50% |
| Pacers 1H O/U 50.5 | 50% |
| Pacers 1H O/U 52.5 | 50% |
| Pacers 1H O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| Pacers 1H O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| Pacers 1H O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| Pacers 2H O/U 53.5 | 50% |
| Pacers 2H O/U 55.5 | 50% |
| Pacers 2H O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| Pacers 2H O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Pacers 2H O/U 61.5 | 50% |
| Heat 2H O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| Heat 2H O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Heat 2H O/U 61.5 | 50% |
| Heat 2H O/U 63.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Pacers O/U 122.5 | 50% |
| Heat O/U 112.5 | 50% |
| Heat O/U 110.5 | 50% |
| Heat O/U 134.5 | 50% |
| Kelly Oubre Jr.: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Pacers 1H O/U 55.5 | 50% |
| Jarace Walker: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Pelle Larsson: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Aaron Nesmith: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Jarace Walker: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Pelle Larsson: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Pelle Larsson: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Assists O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Assists O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Assists O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Pelle Larsson: Assists O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Pelle Larsson: Assists O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Pelle Larsson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Aaron Nesmith: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Jarace Walker: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Larry Nance Jr.: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Larry Nance Jr.: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Larry Nance Jr.: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Larry Nance Jr.: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Aaron Nesmith: Assists O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Aaron Nesmith: Assists O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Aaron Nesmith: Assists O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Kelly Oubre Jr.: Assists O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Kelly Oubre Jr.: Assists O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Quenton Jackson: Assists O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Quenton Jackson: Assists O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Quenton Jackson: Assists O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Aaron Nesmith: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Andrew Nembhard: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Jarace Walker: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Jarace Walker: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Quenton Jackson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Quenton Jackson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| O/U 237.5 | 49% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Points O/U 31.5 | 49% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Points O/U 9.5 | 49% |
| Klay Thompson: Points O/U 4.5 | 49% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 49% |
| Pascal Siakam: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 49% |
| Bobby Portis: Points O/U 24.5 | 49% |
| Pascal Siakam: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Jay Huff: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| 1Q O/U 58.5 | 49% |
| Heat O/U 116.5 | 49% |
| Pacers 1H O/U 62.5 | 49% |
| Pacers O/U 126.5 | 49% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 49% |
| Bobby Portis: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 49% |
| Davion Mitchell: Points O/U 4.5 | 49% |
| Jarace Walker: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Pelle Larsson: Assists O/U 3.5 | 49% |
| 1H O/U 115.5 | 48% |
| Bobby Portis Jr.: Points O/U 11.5 | 48% |
| Tim Hardaway Jr.: Points O/U 8.5 | 48% |
| Bam Adebayo: Assists O/U 3.5 | 48% |
| Bam Adebayo: Points O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Points O/U 19.5 | 48% |
| Bobby Portis: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 48% |
| 2Q Spread -12.5 | 48% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 48% |
| Pacers O/U 102.5 | 48% |
| Pacers O/U 114.5 | 48% |
| Spread -9.5 | 47% |
| Jay Huff: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 47% |
| 4Q O/U 59.5 | 47% |
| Pascal Siakam: Points O/U 24.5 | 46% |
| Pascal Siakam: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 46% |
| Davion Mitchell: Assists O/U 3.5 | 46% |
| Pascal Siakam: Assists O/U 1.5 | 46% |
| Jay Huff: Points O/U 4.5 | 46% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 46% |
| Aaron Nesmith: Points O/U 14.5 | 46% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Points O/U 9.5 | 46% |
| O/U 239.5 | 45% |
| Davion Mitchell: Points O/U 12.5 | 45% |
| Tim Hardaway Jr.: Points O/U 4.5 | 45% |
| Andrew Wiggins: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 45% |
| Klay Thompson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 45% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 45% |
| Heat O/U 124.5 | 45% |
| Pelle Larsson: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 45% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Assists O/U 5.5 | 45% |
| Bam Adebayo: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 44% |
| 1H O/U 116.5 | 44% |
| Aaron Nesmith: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 44% |
| Bam Adebayo: Assists O/U 1.5 | 43% |
| Pascal Siakam: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 43% |
| Jarace Walker: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 43% |
| Pelle Larsson: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 43% |
| Jarace Walker: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 43% |
| Bobby Portis Jr.: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 42% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Assists O/U 6.5 | 42% |
| Bam Adebayo: Points O/U 19.5 | 42% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 42% |
| Pacers O/U 116.5 | 42% |
| Andrew Nembhard: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 42% |
| Pascal Siakam: Assists O/U 4.5 | 41% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Assists O/U 3.5 | 41% |
| Bobby Portis: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 41% |
| Tim Hardaway Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 41% |
| 2Q O/U 58.5 | 41% |
| Heat 1H O/U 61.5 | 41% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 41% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 41% |
| Pacers vs. Heat: O/U 241.5 | 40% |
| Spread -11.5 | 40% |
| Bobby Portis: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 40% |
| Davion Mitchell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 40% |
| 3Q O/U 64.5 | 40% |
| O/U 242.5 | 39% |
| Davion Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 39% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Points O/U 24.5 | 39% |
| Bam Adebayo: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 39% |
| Klay Thompson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 39% |
| Kelly Oubre Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 39% |
| Pascal Siakam: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 39% |
| Jay Huff: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 39% |
| 1H O/U 118.5 | 39% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 39% |
| 1Q O/U 60.5 | 39% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 39% |
| Tim Hardaway Jr.: Points O/U 9.5 | 38% |
| Jay Huff: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 38% |
| 4Q O/U 61.5 | 38% |
| Bam Adebayo: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 37% |
| Bam Adebayo: Steals O/U 0.5 | 37% |
| Spread -13.5 | 36% |
| O/U 243.5 | 36% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 36% |
| Davion Mitchell: Assists O/U 7.5 | 36% |
| Kelly Oubre Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 36% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 36% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 36% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Assists O/U 7.5 | 36% |
| Pelle Larsson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 36% |
| Bam Adebayo: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 35% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 35% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Points O/U 14.5 | 35% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Steals O/U 0.5 | 35% |
| Klay Thompson: Points O/U 9.5 | 34% |
| Davion Mitchell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 34% |
| Jay Huff: Points O/U 9.5 | 34% |
| 3Q O/U 68.5 | 34% |
| 1H Moneyline | 33% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 33% |
| Heat 1H O/U 63.5 | 33% |
| Pelle Larsson: Points O/U 9.5 | 33% |
| O/U 245.5 | 32% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 32% |
| 2Q O/U 60.5 | 32% |
| 3Q O/U 66.5 | 32% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 32% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 31% |
| Heat 1H O/U 69.5 | 31% |
| 1Q O/U 62.5 | 31% |
| Spread -15.5 | 30% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 30% |
| Kelly Oubre Jr.: Points O/U 14.5 | 30% |
| 4Q O/U 63.5 | 30% |
| Jarace Walker: Points O/U 9.5 | 30% |
| Aaron Nesmith: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 30% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 29% |
| Andrew Nembhard: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 29% |
| O/U 247.5 | 28% |
| Bobby Portis: Points O/U 14.5 | 28% |
| Davion Mitchell: Points O/U 14.5 | 28% |
| Davion Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 28% |
| Davion Mitchell: Steals O/U 1.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 28% |
| 1H O/U 124.5 | 28% |
| 1H O/U 130.5 | 28% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 28% |
| Davion Mitchell: Points O/U 11.5 | 28% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Points O/U 30.5 | 28% |
| Pacers vs. Heat | 27% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Points O/U 34.5 | 27% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 27% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 27% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Points O/U 12.5 | 27% |
| Bam Adebayo: Points O/U 18.5 | 26% |
| Spread -17.5 | 25% |
| Jay Huff: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 25% |
| Tim Hardaway Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 25% |
| Spread -1.5 | 24% |
| O/U 249.5 | 24% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Points O/U 13.5 | 24% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 24% |
| Heat 1H O/U 65.5 | 24% |
| 1Q O/U 64.5 | 24% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Points O/U 14.5 | 23% |
| Bam Adebayo: Steals O/U 1.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -12.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 23% |
| 1Q Spread -8.5 | 23% |
| 4Q O/U 65.5 | 23% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Assists O/U 9.5 | 23% |
| Spread -2.5 | 22% |
| O/U 251.5 | 22% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 22% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 22% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 22% |
| Spread -19.5 | 21% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 21% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Assists O/U 7.5 | 21% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Points O/U 19.5 | 21% |
| Bam Adebayo: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 20% |
| Pascal Siakam: Points O/U 29.5 | 20% |
| Jay Huff: Points O/U 14.5 | 20% |
| Jay Huff: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 20% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 20% |
| Jarace Walker: Points O/U 14.5 | 20% |
| O/U 253.5 | 19% |
| Jay Huff: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 19% |
| Jay Huff: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 19% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 19% |
| Spread -4.5 | 18% |
| Pascal Siakam: Assists O/U 5.5 | 18% |
| Jay Huff: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 18% |
| Kelly Oubre Jr.: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 18% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Steals O/U 1.5 | 18% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 18% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 18% |
| Jarace Walker: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 18% |
| Aaron Nesmith: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 18% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Points O/U 39.5 | 17% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Points O/U 44.5 | 17% |
| Klay Thompson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 17% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Steals O/U 2.5 | 17% |
| Heat 1H O/U 67.5 | 17% |
| 1Q O/U 66.5 | 17% |
| Andrew Nembhard: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 17% |
| Pelle Larsson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 17% |
| O/U 255.5 | 16% |
| Bam Adebayo: Points O/U 29.5 | 16% |
| Pascal Siakam: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 16% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Steals O/U 1.5 | 16% |
| Kelly Oubre Jr.: Steals O/U 1.5 | 16% |
| Pascal Siakam: Steals O/U 1.5 | 16% |
| Jarace Walker: Assists O/U 3.5 | 16% |
| Jarace Walker: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 16% |
| Spread -21.5 | 15% |
| Davion Mitchell: Assists O/U 11.5 | 15% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 15% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 15% |
| Spread -6.5 | 14% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Points O/U 24.5 | 14% |
| Bam Adebayo: Points O/U 24.5 | 14% |
| Davion Mitchell: Points O/U 24.5 | 14% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Points O/U 49.5 | 14% |
| Bam Adebayo: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 14% |
| Pascal Siakam: Points O/U 39.5 | 14% |
| Bobby Portis: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 14% |
| Jay Huff: Points O/U 19.5 | 14% |
| Kelly Oubre Jr.: Points O/U 24.5 | 14% |
| Jay Huff: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 14% |
| Pascal Siakam: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 14% |
| Klay Thompson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 14% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 14% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Assists O/U 11.5 | 14% |
| O/U 257.5 | 13% |
| Klay Thompson: Points O/U 19.5 | 13% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 13% |
| Bobby Portis: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 13% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Assists O/U 3.5 | 13% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Assists O/U 11.5 | 13% |
| Pascal Siakam: Assists O/U 9.5 | 13% |
| Andrew Wiggins: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 13% |
| 3Q Spread -11.5 | 13% |
| Spread -23.5 | 12% |
| Davion Mitchell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 12% |
| Pascal Siakam: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 12% |
| 4Q Spread -11.5 | 12% |
| Aaron Nesmith: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 12% |
| Pelle Larsson: Assists O/U 5.5 | 12% |
| Spread -16.5 | 11% |
| Spread -8.5 | 11% |
| Davion Mitchell: Assists O/U 9.5 | 11% |
| Kelly Oubre Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 11% |
| 1Q Spread -12.5 | 11% |
| 1Q O/U 68.5 | 11% |
| O/U 259.5 | 11% |
| Aaron Nesmith: Points O/U 19.5 | 11% |
| Tim Hardaway Jr.: Points O/U 14.5 | 10% |
| Bam Adebayo: Assists O/U 5.5 | 10% |
| Bam Adebayo: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 10% |
| Spread -25.5 | 9% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 9% |
| Bam Adebayo: Steals O/U 2.5 | 9% |
| Kelly Oubre Jr.: Steals O/U 2.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -18.5 | 9% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 9% |
| 4Q Spread -8.5 | 9% |
| O/U 261.5 | 9% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Points O/U 24.5 | 9% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 9% |
| Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Points O/U 19.5 | 8% |
| Davion Mitchell: Points O/U 19.5 | 8% |
| Klay Thompson: Points O/U 14.5 | 8% |
| Bam Adebayo: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 8% |
| Pascal Siakam: Points O/U 34.5 | 8% |
| Pascal Siakam: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 8% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 8% |
| Davion Mitchell: Steals O/U 2.5 | 8% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Steals O/U 2.5 | 8% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 8% |
| 1Q O/U 70.5 | 8% |
| O/U 263.5 | 8% |
| Pelle Larsson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 8% |
| Spread -27.5 | 7% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Assists O/U 9.5 | 7% |
| Bobby Portis: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 7% |
| Kelly Oubre Jr.: Points O/U 19.5 | 7% |
| Tim Hardaway Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 7% |
| Kelly Oubre Jr.: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 7% |
| Pascal Siakam: Steals O/U 2.5 | 7% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 7% |
| 1H Spread -11.5 | 7% |
| Jarace Walker: Points O/U 19.5 | 7% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Assists O/U 13.5 | 7% |
| Spread -12.5 | 6% |
| Spread -14.5 | 6% |
| Bobby Portis: Points O/U 19.5 | 6% |
| Bobby Portis: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 6% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Rebounds O/U 17.5 | 6% |
| Andrew Wiggins: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 6% |
| Davion Mitchell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 6% |
| Klay Thompson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 6% |
| Pascal Siakam: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 6% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| O/U 265.5 | 6% |
| Aaron Nesmith: Points O/U 24.5 | 6% |
| Spread -29.5 | 5% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 5% |
| Davion Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 5% |
| Pascal Siakam: Assists O/U 7.5 | 5% |
| Obi Toppin: Points O/U 9.5 | 5% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 5% |
| O/U 267.5 | 5% |
| Jarace Walker: Assists O/U 5.5 | 5% |
| Spread -18.5 | 4% |
| Bam Adebayo: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 4% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 4% |
| Obi Toppin: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 4% |
| Obi Toppin: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 4% |
| Obi Toppin: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 4% |
| Jay Huff: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 4% |
| Kelly Oubre Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 4% |
| Tim Hardaway Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 4% |
| Bam Adebayo: Assists O/U 7.5 | 4% |
| 1H Spread -22.5 | 4% |
| Spread -20.5 | 3% |
| Spread -31.5 | 3% |
| Tim Hardaway Jr.: Points O/U 19.5 | 3% |
| Andrew Wiggins: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 3% |
| Bobby Portis: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 3% |
| Obi Toppin: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 3% |
| Obi Toppin: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 3% |
| Obi Toppin: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 3% |
| Pascal Siakam: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 3% |
| Obi Toppin: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 3% |
| Kelly Oubre Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 3% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Assists O/U 5.5 | 3% |
| Bam Adebayo: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 3% |
| Davion Mitchell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 3% |
| Spread -22.5 | 2% |
| Obi Toppin: Points O/U 24.5 | 2% |
| Spread -24.5 | 1% |
| Obi Toppin: Points O/U 14.5 | 1% |
| Obi Toppin: Points O/U 19.5 | 1% |
| Obi Toppin: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| Obi Toppin: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 1% |
| Obi Toppin: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| Obi Toppin: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 1% |
Market context
Market consensus: 94% chance of pacers vs. heat. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 30 at 8:00PM ET: If the Pacers win, the market will resolve to "Pacers". If the Heat win, the market will resolve to "Heat". If the …
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $1.1M.
Methodology
This page tracks Pacers vs. Heat across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Election Predictions UK provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.
Resolution & payout
Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- How accurate are political prediction markets?
- Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.
- What resolution source is used for elections?
- Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.
- Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?
- Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.
- Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?
- Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.
- Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?
- Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.
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