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Lakers vs. Hawks

"Lakers vs. Hawks" — live political-market odds plus comparison across the four major prediction venues.

Kingston Flemings: Points O/U 4.5 100% Sandro Mamukelashvili: Points O/U 4.5 100% Ziaire Williams: Points O/U 4.5 100% Walker Kessler: Rebounds O/U 1.5 100% Volume: $2.9M Liquidity: $2.6M Closes: 10 Nov 2026
Open live market →
Lakers vs. Hawks

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Election Predictions UK) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
100% 0% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
100% 0% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Trade this market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
— — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
— — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Trade this market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
— — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Kingston Flemings: Points O/U 4.5100%
Sandro Mamukelashvili: Points O/U 4.5100%
Ziaire Williams: Points O/U 4.5100%
Walker Kessler: Rebounds O/U 1.5100%
Onyeka Okongwu: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5100%
Sandro Mamukelashvili: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5100%
Ziaire Williams: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5100%
Nickeil Alexander-Walker: Steals O/U 0.5100%
Race to 30100%
1Q Spread -1.5100%
1Q Spread -0.5100%
1Q Spread -3.5100%
1Q Spread -5.5100%
1Q O/U 51.5100%
1Q O/U 49.5100%
Luka Dončić: Rebounds O/U 1.5100%
Luka Dončić: Assists O/U 1.5100%
Luka Dončić: Assists O/U 3.5100%
Luka Dončić: Steals O/U 0.5100%
Luka Dončić: Steals O/U 1.5100%
Collin Sexton: Assists O/U 1.5100%
Dyson Daniels: Assists O/U 1.599%
O/U 207.594%
Sandro Mamukelashvili: Rebounds O/U 1.593%
Luguentz Dort: Rebounds O/U 1.592%
Nickeil Alexander-Walker: Rebounds O/U 1.592%
O/U 209.591%
Walker Kessler: Assists O/U 1.591%
1H O/U 105.590%
Luka Dončić: Rebounds O/U 3.590%
Luka Dončić: Assists O/U 5.590%
O/U 211.589%
Onyeka Okongwu: Points O/U 9.589%
Walker Kessler: Rebounds O/U 5.589%
Jalen Johnson: Rebounds O/U 3.588%
O/U 213.587%
Sandro Mamukelashvili: Points O/U 9.587%
1H Spread -1.587%
Luka Dončić: Points O/U 24.587%
Jalen Johnson: Points O/U 14.586%
Onyeka Okongwu: Rebounds O/U 3.586%
Luka Dončić: Assists O/U 7.585%
Jake LaRavia: Rebounds O/U 1.585%
O/U 215.583%
Walker Kessler: Rebounds O/U 7.583%
1H O/U 107.583%
Luka Dončić: Rebounds O/U 5.583%
Kingston Flemings: Points O/U 9.580%
Nickeil Alexander-Walker: Points O/U 9.580%
Collin Sexton: Points O/U 9.580%
Collin Sexton: Assists O/U 3.580%
O/U 217.579%
Onyeka Okongwu: Points O/U 14.579%
Aaron Wiggins: Rebounds O/U 1.579%
Sandro Mamukelashvili: Rebounds O/U 3.579%
1H Spread -3.579%
Jalen Johnson: Rebounds O/U 5.576%
1H O/U 109.576%
O/U 219.575%
Kingston Flemings: Rebounds O/U 1.575%
Onyeka Okongwu: Rebounds O/U 5.575%
Luka Dončić: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.575%
1H Spread -5.571%
O/U 221.570%
Luka Dončić: Points O/U 29.570%
Lakers vs. Hawks69%
Ziaire Williams: Points O/U 9.569%
Dyson Daniels: Rebounds O/U 3.567%
Walker Kessler: Rebounds O/U 9.567%
Spread -1.566%
1H O/U 111.566%
Luka Dončić: Assists O/U 9.566%
O/U 223.565%
Spread -2.563%
Hawks O/U 116.562%
Walker Kessler: Points O/U 14.561%
Nickeil Alexander-Walker: Rebounds O/U 3.561%
Lakers O/U 122.561%
O/U 225.560%
CJ McCollum: Points O/U 9.560%
1H Spread -7.559%
Spread -3.558%
1H Moneyline58%
2Q O/U 61.558%
1H O/U 113.558%
Ziaire Williams: Rebounds O/U 1.557%
4Q O/U 57.557%
Lakers O/U 106.556%
Spread -4.555%
2Q Spread -3.555%
Hawks O/U 114.555%
Luka Dončić: Rebounds O/U 7.554%
O/U 227.553%
CJ McCollum: Rebounds O/U 1.553%
Jake LaRavia: Rebounds O/U 3.553%
3Q Spread -0.553%
Spread -5.552%
Nickeil Alexander-Walker: Points O/U 14.552%
Luguentz Dort: Rebounds O/U 3.552%
4Q Spread -0.552%
Lakers 1H O/U 60.552%
3Q Spread -1.552%
4Q Spread -2.552%
Lakers O/U 120.552%
Hawks O/U 110.552%
O/U 229.551%
Jalen Johnson: Points O/U 19.551%
Walker Kessler: Points O/U 9.551%
Dyson Daniels: Rebounds O/U 1.551%
Jalen Johnson: Rebounds O/U 1.551%
Onyeka Okongwu: Rebounds O/U 1.551%
Walker Kessler: Rebounds O/U 3.551%
Kingston Flemings: Assists O/U 1.551%
Nickeil Alexander-Walker: Assists O/U 3.551%
Nickeil Alexander-Walker: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.551%
Onyeka Okongwu: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.551%
Sandro Mamukelashvili: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.551%
Ziaire Williams: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.551%
Matisse Thybulle: Steals O/U 0.551%
Nickeil Alexander-Walker: Steals O/U 1.551%
Ziaire Williams: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.551%
Lakers O/U 118.551%
4Q O/U 53.551%
Lakers O/U 116.551%
2Q Spread -2.551%
3Q O/U 60.551%
Lakers 1H O/U 62.551%
3Q O/U 54.551%
4Q Spread -4.551%
2Q O/U 63.551%
3Q Spread -4.551%
Hawks O/U 126.551%
Lakers O/U 117.551%
Luka Dončić: Steals O/U 2.551%
Jalen Johnson: Points O/U 20.550%
Aaron Wiggins: Points O/U 24.550%
Onyeka Okongwu: Points O/U 13.550%
Walker Kessler: Points O/U 12.550%
Walker Kessler: Rebounds O/U 10.550%
Jalen Johnson: Rebounds O/U 8.550%
Nickeil Alexander-Walker: Rebounds O/U 2.550%
CJ McCollum: Points O/U 24.550%
Dyson Daniels: Points O/U 4.550%
Nickeil Alexander-Walker: Assists O/U 2.550%
Onyeka Okongwu: Assists O/U 2.550%
Jake LaRavia: Points O/U 4.550%
Jalen Johnson: Points O/U 9.550%
Jalen Johnson: Points O/U 34.550%
Luguentz Dort: Points O/U 4.550%
Matisse Thybulle: Points O/U 4.550%
Matisse Thybulle: Points O/U 9.550%
Matisse Thybulle: Points O/U 14.550%
CJ McCollum: Rebounds O/U 3.550%
CJ McCollum: Rebounds O/U 5.550%
Dyson Daniels: Rebounds O/U 11.550%
Jalen Johnson: Rebounds O/U 13.550%
Jalen Johnson: Rebounds O/U 15.550%
Matisse Thybulle: Rebounds O/U 1.550%
Matisse Thybulle: Rebounds O/U 3.550%
Matisse Thybulle: Rebounds O/U 5.550%
Sandro Mamukelashvili: Rebounds O/U 9.550%
Walker Kessler: Rebounds O/U 17.550%
Ziaire Williams: Rebounds O/U 5.550%
CJ McCollum: Assists O/U 3.550%
CJ McCollum: Assists O/U 5.550%
Dyson Daniels: Assists O/U 3.550%
Dyson Daniels: Assists O/U 5.550%
Dyson Daniels: Assists O/U 7.550%
Dyson Daniels: Assists O/U 9.550%
Jalen Johnson: Assists O/U 1.550%
Jalen Johnson: Assists O/U 3.550%
Jalen Johnson: Assists O/U 5.550%
Jalen Johnson: Assists O/U 9.550%
Jalen Johnson: Assists O/U 11.550%
Kingston Flemings: Assists O/U 3.550%
Kingston Flemings: Assists O/U 5.550%
Kingston Flemings: Assists O/U 7.550%
Kingston Flemings: Assists O/U 9.550%
Nickeil Alexander-Walker: Assists O/U 5.550%
Onyeka Okongwu: Assists O/U 3.550%
Aaron Wiggins: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.550%
Aaron Wiggins: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.550%
Aaron Wiggins: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.550%
Aaron Wiggins: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.550%
Aaron Wiggins: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.550%
CJ McCollum: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.550%
CJ McCollum: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.550%
CJ McCollum: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.550%
Jalen Johnson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.550%
Jalen Johnson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.550%
Jalen Johnson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.550%
CJ McCollum: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.550%
CJ McCollum: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.550%
Luguentz Dort: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.550%
Luguentz Dort: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.550%
Luguentz Dort: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.550%
Luguentz Dort: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.550%
Matisse Thybulle: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.550%
Matisse Thybulle: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.550%
Matisse Thybulle: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.550%
Nickeil Alexander-Walker: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.550%
Nickeil Alexander-Walker: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.550%
Nickeil Alexander-Walker: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.550%
Nickeil Alexander-Walker: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.550%
Onyeka Okongwu: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.550%
Onyeka Okongwu: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.550%
Sandro Mamukelashvili: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.550%
Sandro Mamukelashvili: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.550%
Ziaire Williams: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.550%
Aaron Wiggins: Steals O/U 0.550%
Aaron Wiggins: Steals O/U 1.550%
Aaron Wiggins: Steals O/U 2.550%
Dyson Daniels: Steals O/U 0.550%
Dyson Daniels: Steals O/U 1.550%
Dyson Daniels: Steals O/U 2.550%
Jake LaRavia: Steals O/U 0.550%
Jake LaRavia: Steals O/U 1.550%
Jake LaRavia: Steals O/U 2.550%
Matisse Thybulle: Steals O/U 1.550%
Matisse Thybulle: Steals O/U 2.550%
Nickeil Alexander-Walker: Steals O/U 2.550%
Onyeka Okongwu: Steals O/U 0.550%
Onyeka Okongwu: Steals O/U 1.550%
Onyeka Okongwu: Steals O/U 2.550%
Walker Kessler: Steals O/U 0.550%
Walker Kessler: Steals O/U 1.550%
Walker Kessler: Steals O/U 2.550%
Ziaire Williams: Steals O/U 0.550%
Ziaire Williams: Steals O/U 1.550%
Ziaire Williams: Steals O/U 2.550%
Onyeka Okongwu: Blocks O/U 0.550%
Onyeka Okongwu: Blocks O/U 1.550%
Onyeka Okongwu: Blocks O/U 2.550%
Walker Kessler: Blocks O/U 1.550%
Walker Kessler: Blocks O/U 2.550%
Walker Kessler: Blocks O/U 3.550%
Onyeka Okongwu: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.550%
Walker Kessler: Blocks O/U 4.550%
CJ McCollum: Assists O/U 7.550%
Dyson Daniels: Steals O/U 3.550%
Dyson Daniels: Steals O/U 4.550%
Jalen Johnson: Steals O/U 0.550%
Jalen Johnson: Steals O/U 1.550%
Walker Kessler: Blocks O/U 0.550%
2Q Spread -0.550%
Hawks 1H O/U 60.550%
Odd/Even Score50%
Overtime?50%
Walker Kessler: Points O/U 13.550%
3Q O/U 56.550%
Hawks 1H O/U 58.550%
Lakers 1H O/U 58.550%
Hawks 1H O/U 61.550%
Lakers 1H O/U 56.550%
2Q Spread -4.550%
3Q O/U 62.550%
4Q Spread -3.550%
Hawks O/U 122.550%
Hawks 1H O/U 64.550%
Lakers 1H O/U 64.550%
3Q O/U 52.550%
3Q O/U 64.550%
Lakers O/U 126.550%
Hawks O/U 108.550%
Lakers O/U 128.550%
1H Spread -18.550%
Jalen Johnson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.550%
Jalen Johnson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.550%
Matisse Thybulle: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.550%
Ziaire Williams: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.550%
Jalen Johnson: Steals O/U 2.550%
Luka Dončić: Points O/U 33.550%
CJ McCollum: Rebounds O/U 9.550%
Kingston Flemings: Rebounds O/U 9.550%
Luguentz Dort: Rebounds O/U 9.550%
Matisse Thybulle: Rebounds O/U 9.550%
Ziaire Williams: Rebounds O/U 9.550%
Luka Dončić: Points O/U 35.550%
Luka Dončić: Assists O/U 8.550%
Luka Dončić: Points O/U 9.550%
Luka Dončić: Points O/U 14.550%
Luka Dončić: Points O/U 19.550%
Luka Dončić: Points O/U 49.550%
Luka Dončić: Assists O/U 13.550%
Luka Dončić: Assists O/U 15.550%
Luka Dončić: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.550%
Luka Dončić: 3-Pointers Made O/U 6.550%
Hawks 2H O/U 59.550%
Lakers 2H O/U 58.550%
Luka Dončić: Points O/U 36.550%
Hawks 2H O/U 57.550%
Lakers 2H O/U 56.550%
Hawks 2H O/U 61.550%
Lakers 2H O/U 60.550%
Hawks 2H O/U 55.550%
Lakers 2H O/U 54.550%
Hawks 2H O/U 63.550%
Lakers 2H O/U 62.550%
1H O/U 120.550%
4Q Spread -0.550%
Lakers 1H O/U 59.550%
Luka Dončić: Points O/U 37.550%
Collin Sexton: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.550%
Collin Sexton: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.550%
Collin Sexton: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.550%
Luka Dončić: Points O/U 38.550%
Matisse Thybulle: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.550%
1H Spread -0.549%
2Q O/U 59.549%
3Q O/U 58.549%
4Q O/U 55.549%
Hawks 1H O/U 62.549%
3Q O/U 57.549%
Hawks 1H O/U 56.549%
Hawks O/U 124.549%
Lakers O/U 124.549%
Spread -30.548%
Luka Dončić: Points O/U 34.548%
Nickeil Alexander-Walker: Assists O/U 1.548%
Luguentz Dort: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.548%
1H O/U 115.548%
3Q Spread -6.548%
Lakers O/U 108.548%
Hawks O/U 128.548%
Hawks O/U 106.548%
Spread -6.547%
Sandro Mamukelashvili: Points O/U 14.547%
Jalen Johnson: Rebounds O/U 7.547%
2Q O/U 55.546%
1H Spread -9.546%
Collin Sexton: Points O/U 14.546%
O/U 231.545%
Dyson Daniels: Points O/U 9.545%
2Q Spread -1.545%
2Q O/U 57.545%
3Q Spread -2.545%
Aaron Wiggins: Rebounds O/U 3.544%
Spread -7.543%
Jalen Johnson: Assists O/U 7.543%
Team to Score First43%
Lakers O/U 130.543%
Onyeka Okongwu: Rebounds O/U 7.542%
Walker Kessler: Rebounds O/U 11.542%
CJ McCollum: Assists O/U 1.542%
Onyeka Okongwu: Assists O/U 1.542%
Lakers O/U 110.542%
Hawks O/U 130.542%
Onyeka Okongwu: Points O/U 19.541%
Spread -8.540%
O/U 233.539%
Luka Dončić: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.539%
Aaron Wiggins: Points O/U 9.538%
1H O/U 117.537%
Lakers O/U 114.537%
Lakers O/U 112.537%
Dyson Daniels: Rebounds O/U 5.536%
Sandro Mamukelashvili: Rebounds O/U 5.536%
Hawks O/U 112.536%
O/U 234.536%
Spread -10.535%
Collin Sexton: Rebounds O/U 1.535%
O/U 235.534%
1H Spread -11.534%
Kingston Flemings: Points O/U 14.533%
Luka Dončić: Points O/U 39.533%
Luka Dončić: Rebounds O/U 9.533%
Collin Sexton: Assists O/U 5.532%
Walker Kessler: Assists O/U 3.531%
O/U 236.531%
Luka Dončić: Assists O/U 11.531%
Jalen Johnson: Rebounds O/U 9.530%
O/U 237.528%
Spread -1.528%
Spread -12.528%
4Q Spread -1.528%
Spread -2.527%
Jake LaRavia: Points O/U 9.526%
1H O/U 119.526%
1H Spread -13.526%
O/U 239.525%
Ziaire Williams: Points O/U 14.525%
Kingston Flemings: Rebounds O/U 3.525%
Jalen Johnson: Points O/U 24.524%
Spread -3.523%
Spread -14.523%
Nickeil Alexander-Walker: Points O/U 19.523%
CJ McCollum: Points O/U 14.523%
O/U 241.521%
Jake LaRavia: Rebounds O/U 5.521%
Ziaire Williams: Rebounds O/U 3.521%
Hawks O/U 120.521%
3Q Spread -5.521%
Collin Sexton: Points O/U 19.521%
Onyeka Okongwu: Rebounds O/U 9.520%
Hawks O/U 118.520%
3Q Spread -3.520%
Walker Kessler: Rebounds O/U 13.519%
1H O/U 121.519%
1H Spread -15.519%
O/U 243.518%
Spread -5.518%
Spread -16.518%
Walker Kessler: Points O/U 19.517%
Luka Dončić: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.517%
Sandro Mamukelashvili: Points O/U 19.517%
Nickeil Alexander-Walker: Rebounds O/U 5.516%
O/U 245.515%
O/U 263.515%
Spread -18.514%
O/U 257.514%
O/U 259.514%
O/U 261.514%
Luguentz Dort: Points O/U 9.514%
Jalen Johnson: Rebounds O/U 11.514%
Sandro Mamukelashvili: Rebounds O/U 7.514%
Spread -7.513%
Nickeil Alexander-Walker: Points O/U 24.513%
Dyson Daniels: Rebounds O/U 7.513%
O/U 247.512%
O/U 255.512%
Jalen Johnson: Points O/U 29.512%
Aaron Wiggins: Rebounds O/U 5.512%
Luguentz Dort: Rebounds O/U 5.512%
Walker Kessler: Rebounds O/U 15.512%
Kingston Flemings: Points O/U 19.512%
Collin Sexton: Rebounds O/U 3.512%
Spread -20.511%
Aaron Wiggins: Points O/U 14.511%
Aaron Wiggins: Points O/U 19.511%
Luguentz Dort: Points O/U 14.511%
Kingston Flemings: Rebounds O/U 5.511%
1H Spread -17.511%
Luka Dončić: Points O/U 44.511%
Luka Dončić: Rebounds O/U 11.511%
O/U 249.510%
Spread -9.510%
Onyeka Okongwu: Points O/U 24.510%
Onyeka Okongwu: Rebounds O/U 11.510%
Nickeil Alexander-Walker: Rebounds O/U 7.510%
Dyson Daniels: Points O/U 14.59%
Dyson Daniels: Points O/U 19.59%
Onyeka Okongwu: Assists O/U 5.59%
1H O/U 123.59%
Aaron Wiggins: Rebounds O/U 7.59%
O/U 251.58%
Spread -22.58%
Dyson Daniels: Rebounds O/U 9.58%
1H O/U 125.58%
Spread -11.57%
CJ McCollum: Points O/U 19.57%
Jake LaRavia: Points O/U 14.57%
Walker Kessler: Points O/U 24.57%
O/U 253.56%
Spread -13.56%
Spread -24.56%
1H Spread -2.56%
1H Spread -1.56%
Spread -26.55%
Collin Sexton: Points O/U 24.55%
Nickeil Alexander-Walker: Points O/U 29.54%
1H O/U 127.54%
Spread -15.53%
Spread -19.53%
Spread -28.53%
1H O/U 129.53%
1H O/U 131.53%
Spread -17.52%
Spread -21.52%
1H Spread -4.52%
1H Spread -6.52%
1H Spread -12.52%
Austin Reaves: Points O/U 21.51%
Austin Reaves: Points O/U 9.51%
Austin Reaves: Points O/U 14.51%
Austin Reaves: Points O/U 19.51%
Austin Reaves: Points O/U 24.51%
Austin Reaves: Points O/U 29.51%
Austin Reaves: Points O/U 34.51%
Austin Reaves: Rebounds O/U 3.51%
Austin Reaves: Assists O/U 4.51%
Austin Reaves: Rebounds O/U 1.51%
Austin Reaves: Rebounds O/U 5.51%
Austin Reaves: Assists O/U 1.51%
Austin Reaves: Assists O/U 3.51%
Austin Reaves: Assists O/U 5.51%
Austin Reaves: Assists O/U 7.51%
Austin Reaves: Assists O/U 9.51%
Austin Reaves: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.51%
Austin Reaves: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.51%
Austin Reaves: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.51%
Austin Reaves: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.51%
Austin Reaves: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.51%
Austin Reaves: Steals O/U 0.51%
Austin Reaves: Steals O/U 1.51%
Austin Reaves: Steals O/U 2.51%
Austin Reaves: Rebounds O/U 7.51%
1H Spread -8.51%
1H Spread -10.51%
1H O/U 133.51%
1H Spread -14.51%
1H O/U 135.51%
1H Spread -16.51%
1H O/U 137.51%
Spread -23.50%
Spread -25.50%
1Q Spread -0.50%
1Q O/U 61.50%
Race to 100%
Race to 200%
1Q O/U 59.50%
1Q Spread -2.50%
1Q O/U 63.50%
1Q O/U 57.50%
1Q Spread -4.50%
1Q O/U 65.50%
1Q O/U 55.50%
1Q Spread -6.50%
1Q O/U 67.50%
1Q O/U 53.50%
1Q O/U 69.50%
1Q O/U 71.50%
1Q O/U 73.50%
1Q O/U 62.50%

Market context

Lakers vs. Hawks — current market-implied probability: 100%. In the upcoming NBA game between Lakers and Hawks, originally scheduled for Monday, November 9, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET (as of creation of the first market related to the event): If the Lakers win, the mar…

Live Data & Statistics

The Polymarket order book prices Kingston Flemings: Points O/U 4.5 at 100% for "Lakers vs. Hawks".

Kingston Flemings: Points O/U 4.5 100% Other 0%

Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $2.9M.

Methodology

This page tracks Lakers vs. Hawks across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Election Predictions UK provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How accurate are political prediction markets?
Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.
What resolution source is used for elections?
Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.
Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?
Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.
Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?
Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.
Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?
Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.
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Trade Lakers vs. Hawks on Election Predictions UK

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