Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Election Predictions UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
94% | 6% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
94% | 6% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 207.5 | 94% |
| O/U 209.5 | 92% |
| O/U 211.5 | 91% |
| O/U 213.5 | 88% |
| O/U 215.5 | 86% |
| O/U 217.5 | 82% |
| O/U 219.5 | 79% |
| O/U 221.5 | 76% |
| Cameron Boozer: Points O/U 9.5 | 72% |
| Jeremiah Fears: Assists O/U 1.5 | 72% |
| O/U 223.5 | 71% |
| Cedric Coward: Points O/U 9.5 | 71% |
| Dejounte Murray: Assists O/U 3.5 | 71% |
| Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 3.5 | 70% |
| Pelicans 1H O/U 54.5 | 70% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 14.5 | 69% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 57.5 | 68% |
| O/U 225.5 | 67% |
| 4Q O/U 53.5 | 67% |
| 2Q O/U 55.5 | 67% |
| Saddiq Bey: Points O/U 9.5 | 65% |
| Zion Williamson: Points O/U 14.5 | 65% |
| 1Q O/U 57.5 | 65% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 64% |
| 3Q O/U 53.5 | 64% |
| O/U 227.5 | 63% |
| Cameron Boozer: Assists O/U 3.5 | 63% |
| Cedric Coward: Assists O/U 1.5 | 63% |
| Spread -1.5 | 62% |
| Pelicans 1H O/U 56.5 | 62% |
| Dejounte Murray: Points O/U 9.5 | 61% |
| Zion Williamson: Assists O/U 1.5 | 61% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 61% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 59.5 | 61% |
| 1H O/U 116.5 | 61% |
| Spread -2.5 | 60% |
| Zion Williamson: Points O/U 9.5 | 60% |
| O/U 229.5 | 59% |
| Dejounte Murray: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 59% |
| Jeremiah Fears: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 59% |
| 2Q O/U 57.5 | 59% |
| Jerami Grant: Points O/U 9.5 | 58% |
| Dejounte Murray: Points O/U 14.5 | 57% |
| Zion Williamson: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 57% |
| Derik Queen: Assists O/U 1.5 | 57% |
| 3Q O/U 55.5 | 57% |
| Spread -3.5 | 56% |
| Cameron Boozer: Points O/U 14.5 | 56% |
| Cedric Coward: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 56% |
| Saddiq Bey: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 56% |
| Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 9.5 | 56% |
| Grizzlies O/U 117.5 | 56% |
| Pelicans O/U 112.5 | 56% |
| Saddiq Bey: Assists O/U 1.5 | 55% |
| Zion Williamson: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 55% |
| 1Q O/U 59.5 | 55% |
| O/U 231.5 | 54% |
| Cedric Coward: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 54% |
| Derik Queen: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 54% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 54% |
| 1H O/U 118.5 | 54% |
| Spread -4.5 | 53% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 53% |
| Derik Queen: Points O/U 4.5 | 52% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 9.5 | 52% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 52% |
| Cedric Coward: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 52% |
| Dejounte Murray: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 52% |
| Derik Queen: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 52% |
| Saddiq Bey: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 52% |
| Ty Jerome: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 52% |
| Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 4.5 | 52% |
| Jerami Grant: Points O/U 4.5 | 52% |
| 4Q O/U 55.5 | 52% |
| 4Q O/U 57.5 | 52% |
| Derik Queen: Points O/U 9.5 | 51% |
| Cameron Boozer: Assists O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| Dejounte Murray: Assists O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| Zach Edey: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| Zach Edey: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 51% |
| Team to Score First | 50% |
| Odd/Even Score | 50% |
| Overtime? | 50% |
| Race to 10 | 50% |
| Race to 20 | 50% |
| Race to 30 | 50% |
| O/U 233.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| Pelicans 1H O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies O/U 115.5 | 50% |
| Pelicans O/U 110.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| Spread -5.5 | 49% |
| Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 5.5 | 49% |
| Jaylen Wells: Steals O/U 0.5 | 49% |
| Jaylen Wells: Steals O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Jaylen Wells: Steals O/U 2.5 | 49% |
| Ty Jerome: Steals O/U 0.5 | 49% |
| Ty Jerome: Steals O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Ty Jerome: Steals O/U 2.5 | 49% |
| Zion Williamson: Steals O/U 0.5 | 49% |
| 2Q O/U 59.5 | 49% |
| Grizzlies O/U 119.5 | 49% |
| Pelicans O/U 114.5 | 49% |
| Jeremiah Fears: Points O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 48% |
| Jeremiah Fears: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 48% |
| Cedric Coward: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 48% |
| Ty Jerome: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 48% |
| Jaylen Wells: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 48% |
| Zach Edey: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 48% |
| Dejounte Murray: Steals O/U 0.5 | 48% |
| Jeremiah Fears: Steals O/U 0.5 | 48% |
| Zach Edey: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 48% |
| Zach Edey: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 48% |
| Zach Edey: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 48% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 61.5 | 48% |
| O/U 234.5 | 47% |
| Zion Williamson: Points O/U 19.5 | 47% |
| Derik Queen: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 47% |
| Zach Edey: Points O/U 4.5 | 47% |
| 1H O/U 120.5 | 47% |
| 3Q O/U 57.5 | 47% |
| Pelicans O/U 115.5 | 47% |
| GG Jackson II: Points O/U 4.5 | 47% |
| Cameron Boozer: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 46% |
| Bennedict Mathurin: Points O/U 4.5 | 46% |
| Karlo Matković: Points O/U 14.5 | 46% |
| Spread -6.5 | 45% |
| Dejounte Murray: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 45% |
| Zion Williamson: Assists O/U 2.5 | 45% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 39.5 | 45% |
| Dejounte Murray: Assists O/U 5.5 | 45% |
| Jeremiah Fears: Assists O/U 3.5 | 45% |
| 1Q O/U 61.5 | 45% |
| O/U 235.5 | 44% |
| Cedric Coward: Points O/U 14.5 | 44% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 19.5 | 44% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 44% |
| Ty Jerome: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 44% |
| Jaylen Wells: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 44% |
| Isaiah Stewart: Points O/U 4.5 | 44% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 44% |
| Cedric Coward: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 43% |
| Zach Edey: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 43% |
| 1H O/U 122.5 | 43% |
| Bennedict Mathurin: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 43% |
| Spread -7.5 | 42% |
| O/U 236.5 | 42% |
| Saddiq Bey: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 42% |
| Jaylen Wells: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 42% |
| Jerami Grant: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 42% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 42% |
| Grizzlies O/U 121.5 | 42% |
| Cameron Boozer: Assists O/U 5.5 | 41% |
| Pelicans O/U 116.5 | 41% |
| O/U 237.5 | 40% |
| Zion Williamson: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 40% |
| Ty Jerome: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 40% |
| Jeremiah Fears: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 40% |
| Jerami Grant: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 40% |
| 1H Moneyline | 40% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 63.5 | 40% |
| Dejounte Murray: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 39% |
| Ty Jerome: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 39% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 39% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 39% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 39% |
| 1Q O/U 63.5 | 39% |
| 2Q O/U 61.5 | 39% |
| 3Q O/U 59.5 | 39% |
| Pelicans 1H O/U 60.5 | 39% |
| Karlo Matković: Points O/U 4.5 | 39% |
| Spread -8.5 | 38% |
| Jeremiah Fears: Points O/U 14.5 | 38% |
| 1H O/U 124.5 | 38% |
| O/U 239.5 | 37% |
| Pelicans vs. Grizzlies | 36% |
| Spread -9.5 | 36% |
| Dejounte Murray: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 36% |
| Dejounte Murray: Steals O/U 2.5 | 36% |
| Isaiah Stewart: Points O/U 9.5 | 36% |
| Bennedict Mathurin: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 36% |
| Cameron Boozer: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 35% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 35% |
| Zion Williamson: Points O/U 39.5 | 34% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 34% |
| O/U 241.5 | 33% |
| Spread -10.5 | 33% |
| Trey Murphy III: Points O/U 14.5 | 33% |
| Karlo Matković: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 33% |
| Cedric Coward: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 33% |
| Zion Williamson: Steals O/U 1.5 | 33% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 33% |
| Trey Murphy III: Assists O/U 2.5 | 32% |
| Jaylen Wells: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 32% |
| 1Q O/U 65.5 | 32% |
| 2Q O/U 63.5 | 32% |
| Spread -2.5 | 31% |
| Cameron Boozer: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 31% |
| Zach Edey: Points O/U 9.5 | 31% |
| Dejounte Murray: Steals O/U 1.5 | 31% |
| Bennedict Mathurin: Points O/U 9.5 | 31% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 31% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 31% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 31% |
| 3Q O/U 61.5 | 31% |
| O/U 243.5 | 30% |
| Derik Queen: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 30% |
| Cedric Coward: Assists O/U 3.5 | 30% |
| Spread -11.5 | 29% |
| Saddiq Bey: Points O/U 12.5 | 29% |
| Dejounte Murray: Points O/U 17.5 | 28% |
| Trey Murphy III: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 28% |
| Jerami Grant: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 28% |
| Jerami Grant: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 27% |
| GG Jackson II: Points O/U 9.5 | 27% |
| O/U 245.5 | 26% |
| Spread -4.5 | 26% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 22.5 | 26% |
| Karlo Matković: Points O/U 6.5 | 26% |
| Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 6.5 | 26% |
| Saddiq Bey: Points O/U 14.5 | 26% |
| Saddiq Bey: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 26% |
| Zion Williamson: Points O/U 20.5 | 26% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 26% |
| Spread -13.5 | 25% |
| Saddiq Bey: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 25% |
| Dejounte Murray: Points O/U 19.5 | 25% |
| Dejounte Murray: Assists O/U 6.5 | 25% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 24.5 | 25% |
| Zion Williamson: Points O/U 21.5 | 25% |
| Trey Murphy III: Points O/U 16.5 | 25% |
| Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 14.5 | 25% |
| Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 7.5 | 23% |
| Karlo Matković: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 23% |
| Jeremiah Fears: Steals O/U 1.5 | 23% |
| Zion Williamson: Steals O/U 2.5 | 23% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 23% |
| O/U 247.5 | 22% |
| Dejounte Murray: Assists O/U 7.5 | 22% |
| Spread -6.5 | 21% |
| Zion Williamson: Points O/U 22.5 | 21% |
| Cameron Boozer: Points O/U 19.5 | 21% |
| Dejounte Murray: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 21% |
| Derik Queen: Assists O/U 3.5 | 21% |
| Jeremiah Fears: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 21% |
| Zach Edey: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 21% |
| Spread -15.5 | 20% |
| Zion Williamson: Points O/U 24.5 | 20% |
| Saddiq Bey: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 20% |
| O/U 249.5 | 19% |
| Jerami Grant: Points O/U 14.5 | 19% |
| Spread -17.5 | 18% |
| Spread -8.5 | 18% |
| Derik Queen: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 18% |
| Jeremiah Fears: Assists O/U 5.5 | 18% |
| Jaylen Wells: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 18% |
| Zion Williamson: Assists O/U 3.5 | 17% |
| Karlo Matković: Points O/U 9.5 | 17% |
| O/U 251.5 | 16% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 29.5 | 16% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 16% |
| Dejounte Murray: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 16% |
| Cedric Coward: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 15% |
| Ty Jerome: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 15% |
| O/U 253.5 | 14% |
| Jeremiah Fears: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 14% |
| Saddiq Bey: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 14% |
| Jerami Grant: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 14% |
| Spread -19.5 | 13% |
| Spread -10.5 | 13% |
| Derik Queen: Points O/U 14.5 | 13% |
| Jeremiah Fears: Steals O/U 2.5 | 13% |
| GG Jackson II: Points O/U 14.5 | 13% |
| Cedric Coward: Points O/U 19.5 | 12% |
| O/U 255.5 | 11% |
| Jeremiah Fears: Points O/U 19.5 | 11% |
| Jeremiah Fears: Points O/U 24.5 | 11% |
| Spread -21.5 | 10% |
| Spread -12.5 | 10% |
| O/U 257.5 | 10% |
| Dejounte Murray: Points O/U 24.5 | 10% |
| Saddiq Bey: Points O/U 19.5 | 10% |
| Saddiq Bey: Points O/U 24.5 | 10% |
| Zion Williamson: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 10% |
| Cameron Boozer: Assists O/U 7.5 | 10% |
| Dejounte Murray: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 10% |
| Jeremiah Fears: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 10% |
| Zach Edey: Points O/U 14.5 | 10% |
| Jaylen Wells: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 10% |
| Zach Edey: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 10% |
| Cameron Boozer: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 10% |
| Bennedict Mathurin: Points O/U 14.5 | 10% |
| Spread -14.5 | 9% |
| Cedric Coward: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 9% |
| Ty Jerome: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 9% |
| Dejounte Murray: Assists O/U 9.5 | 9% |
| Jaylen Wells: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 9% |
| Isaiah Stewart: Points O/U 14.5 | 9% |
| O/U 259.5 | 8% |
| Cameron Boozer: Points O/U 24.5 | 8% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 8% |
| Saddiq Bey: Assists O/U 3.5 | 8% |
| Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 9.5 | 8% |
| Ty Jerome: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 8% |
| Jerami Grant: Points O/U 24.5 | 8% |
| Cedric Coward: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 8% |
| Spread -23.5 | 7% |
| Spread -25.5 | 7% |
| O/U 261.5 | 7% |
| Spread -18.5 | 7% |
| Spread -31.5 | 7% |
| Saddiq Bey: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 7% |
| Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 24.5 | 7% |
| Jerami Grant: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 7% |
| Spread -16.5 | 6% |
| Spread -27.5 | 6% |
| Spread -29.5 | 6% |
| O/U 263.5 | 6% |
| Spread -20.5 | 6% |
| Spread -33.5 | 6% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 34.5 | 6% |
| Zion Williamson: Points O/U 29.5 | 6% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 6% |
| Dejounte Murray: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 6% |
| Cameron Boozer: Assists O/U 9.5 | 6% |
| Cedric Coward: Assists O/U 5.5 | 6% |
| Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 19.5 | 6% |
| Jerami Grant: Points O/U 19.5 | 6% |
| Zach Edey: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 6% |
| Dejounte Murray: Points O/U 29.5 | 5% |
| Cedric Coward: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 5% |
| Derik Queen: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 5% |
| Zion Williamson: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 5% |
| Dejounte Murray: Assists O/U 11.5 | 5% |
| Derik Queen: Assists O/U 5.5 | 5% |
| Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 11.5 | 5% |
| Dejounte Murray: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 5% |
| Jeremiah Fears: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 5% |
| Jeremiah Fears: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 5% |
| Jeremiah Fears: Assists O/U 7.5 | 5% |
| Cameron Boozer: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 5% |
| Jaylen Wells: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 5% |
| Ty Jerome: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 5% |
| Cameron Boozer: Points O/U 29.5 | 5% |
| Spread -22.5 | 4% |
| Cedric Coward: Points O/U 24.5 | 4% |
| Zion Williamson: Points O/U 34.5 | 4% |
| Saddiq Bey: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 4% |
| Zion Williamson: Assists O/U 5.5 | 4% |
| Saddiq Bey: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 4% |
| Derik Queen: Points O/U 19.5 | 4% |
| Zach Edey: Points O/U 19.5 | 4% |
| Jerami Grant: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 4% |
| Saddiq Bey: Assists O/U 5.5 | 4% |
| Cedric Coward: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 4% |
| Jaylen Wells: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 4% |
| Jerami Grant: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 4% |
| Dejounte Murray: Points O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| Saddiq Bey: Points O/U 13.5 | 0% |
| Bennedict Mathurin: Points O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| Grizzlies O/U 123.5 | 0% |
| Pelicans O/U 118.5 | 0% |
| Bennedict Mathurin: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 65.5 | 0% |
| Pelicans 1H O/U 62.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 114.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 55.5 | 0% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 0% |
| 3Q O/U 51.5 | 0% |
| Grizzlies O/U 113.5 | 0% |
| Pelicans O/U 108.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 126.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 67.5 | 0% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 0% |
| 3Q O/U 63.5 | 0% |
| Grizzlies O/U 125.5 | 0% |
| Pelicans O/U 120.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 112.5 | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 94% YES probability for Pelicans vs. Grizzlies. In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for November 2 at 8:00PM ET: If the Pelicans win, the market will resolve to "Pelicans". If the Grizzlies win, the market will resolve to "Grizzlies". If the game i…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $291K.
Methodology
This page tracks Pelicans vs. Grizzlies across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Election Predictions UK provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.
Resolution & payout
For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- How accurate are political prediction markets?
- Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.
- What resolution source is used for elections?
- Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.
- Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?
- Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.
- Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?
- Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.
- Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?
- Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.
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