Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Election Predictions UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
78% | 22% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
78% | 22% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 209.5 | 78% |
| O/U 212.5 | 72% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 70% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 14.5 | 69% |
| O/U 215.5 | 67% |
| Jayson Tatum: Assists O/U 5.5 | 61% |
| O/U 218.5 | 60% |
| O/U 220.5 | 56% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Assists O/U 3.5 | 55% |
| Spread -1.5 | 54% |
| O/U 221.5 | 54% |
| OG Anunoby: Assists O/U 1.5 | 52% |
| O/U 222.5 | 51% |
| Team to Score First | 50% |
| Odd/Even Score | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| Overtime? | 50% |
| Race to 10 | 50% |
| Race to 20 | 50% |
| Race to 30 | 50% |
| Jayson Tatum: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Josh Hart: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Mikal Bridges: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| OG Anunoby: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Jayson Tatum: Assists O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| OG Anunoby: Assists O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Josh Hart: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| OG Anunoby: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Walsh: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Walsh: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Walsh: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Mitchell Robinson: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Mitchell Robinson: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Neemias Queta: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Sam Hauser: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Walsh: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Walsh: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Walsh: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Walsh: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Sam Hauser: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Derrick White: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Derrick White: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Derrick White: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Brunson: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Brunson: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Brunson: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Jayson Tatum: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Jayson Tatum: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jayson Tatum: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Josh Hart: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Josh Hart: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Josh Hart: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Mikal Bridges: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Mikal Bridges: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Mikal Bridges: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| OG Anunoby: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| OG Anunoby: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| OG Anunoby: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Paul George: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Paul George: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Paul George: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Derrick White: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Derrick White: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Derrick White: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Mitchell Robinson: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Mitchell Robinson: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Mitchell Robinson: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Neemias Queta: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Neemias Queta: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Neemias Queta: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Spread -2.5 | 49% |
| O/U 223.5 | 49% |
| Mikal Bridges: Assists O/U 2.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 48% |
| Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 14.5 | 48% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 47% |
| OG Anunoby: Points O/U 9.5 | 47% |
| O/U 224.5 | 46% |
| 1H O/U 115.5 | 46% |
| Derrick White: Points O/U 9.5 | 46% |
| Jayson Tatum: Points O/U 19.5 | 46% |
| Jayson Tatum: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 46% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 46% |
| Sam Hauser: Assists O/U 2.5 | 46% |
| Knicks vs. Celtics | 45% |
| Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 19.5 | 45% |
| Payton Pritchard: Points O/U 9.5 | 45% |
| Paul George: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 45% |
| O/U 226.5 | 44% |
| O/U 225.5 | 44% |
| Sam Hauser: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 44% |
| Jayson Tatum: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 43% |
| Spread -4.5 | 42% |
| Mikal Bridges: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 42% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 42% |
| Jalen Brunson: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 41% |
| Paul George: Points O/U 14.5 | 41% |
| Derrick White: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 41% |
| Mikal Bridges: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 41% |
| Spread -5.5 | 40% |
| Spread -2.5 | 40% |
| Paul George: Assists O/U 2.5 | 40% |
| OG Anunoby: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 39% |
| Payton Pritchard: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 39% |
| O/U 228.5 | 38% |
| Derrick White: Assists O/U 3.5 | 38% |
| Neemias Queta: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 38% |
| Josh Hart: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 37% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 37% |
| Paul George: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 37% |
| OG Anunoby: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 37% |
| Mitchell Robinson: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 37% |
| Josh Hart: Points O/U 9.5 | 36% |
| Jalen Brunson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 36% |
| Neemias Queta: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 36% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 18.5 | 35% |
| Mikal Bridges: Points O/U 9.5 | 35% |
| Payton Pritchard: Assists O/U 4.5 | 35% |
| Spread -7.5 | 34% |
| Derrick White: Points O/U 24.5 | 34% |
| Jayson Tatum: Points O/U 24.5 | 34% |
| Jayson Tatum: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 34% |
| Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 5.5 | 34% |
| O/U 231.5 | 33% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 19.5 | 33% |
| Jayson Tatum: Points O/U 25.5 | 33% |
| Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 24.5 | 33% |
| OG Anunoby: Points O/U 14.5 | 33% |
| Payton Pritchard: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 33% |
| Payton Pritchard: Assists O/U 3.5 | 33% |
| Paul George: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 33% |
| Jayson Tatum: Rebounds O/U 8.5 | 32% |
| Derrick White: Points O/U 14.5 | 32% |
| Payton Pritchard: Points O/U 14.5 | 32% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 17.5 | 32% |
| Jayson Tatum: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 32% |
| Spread -5.5 | 31% |
| Paul George: Points O/U 17.5 | 31% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Assists O/U 4.5 | 31% |
| Paul George: Assists O/U 3.5 | 31% |
| Mikal Bridges: Points O/U 11.5 | 31% |
| Derrick White: Assists O/U 4.5 | 31% |
| Josh Hart: Assists O/U 3.5 | 31% |
| Sam Hauser: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 31% |
| Sam Hauser: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 31% |
| Jayson Tatum: Points O/U 26.5 | 30% |
| Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 25.5 | 30% |
| Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 6.5 | 30% |
| OG Anunoby: Points O/U 16.5 | 30% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 24.5 | 30% |
| Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 7.5 | 30% |
| Mikal Bridges: Points O/U 14.5 | 29% |
| Paul George: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 28% |
| Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 29.5 | 28% |
| Mikal Bridges: Points O/U 19.5 | 28% |
| Derrick White: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 28% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 28% |
| Derrick White: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 28% |
| Josh Hart: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 28% |
| Jayson Tatum: Assists O/U 6.5 | 28% |
| O/U 234.5 | 27% |
| Derrick White: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 27% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 27% |
| Spread -10.5 | 26% |
| Paul George: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 26% |
| Payton Pritchard: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 26% |
| Josh Hart: Assists O/U 4.5 | 26% |
| Payton Pritchard: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 26% |
| Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 39.5 | 24% |
| Paul George: Points O/U 19.5 | 24% |
| Jalen Brunson: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 24% |
| Jayson Tatum: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 24% |
| Jayson Tatum: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 24% |
| Josh Hart: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 24% |
| Mikal Bridges: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 24% |
| Paul George: Assists O/U 4.5 | 24% |
| Mikal Bridges: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 24% |
| Mitchell Robinson: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 24% |
| Neemias Queta: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 24% |
| Neemias Queta: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 24% |
| Spread -8.5 | 23% |
| Jayson Tatum: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 23% |
| Jayson Tatum: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 23% |
| OG Anunoby: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 23% |
| Jayson Tatum: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 23% |
| Paul George: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 23% |
| Mitchell Robinson: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 23% |
| O/U 237.5 | 22% |
| Paul George: Points O/U 29.5 | 22% |
| Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 11.5 | 22% |
| Jalen Brunson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 22% |
| Jayson Tatum: Assists O/U 11.5 | 22% |
| Sam Hauser: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 22% |
| Jayson Tatum: Points O/U 39.5 | 21% |
| Josh Hart: Points O/U 14.5 | 21% |
| Derrick White: Assists O/U 5.5 | 21% |
| Paul George: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 20% |
| Jayson Tatum: Assists O/U 7.5 | 20% |
| Sam Hauser: Assists O/U 1.5 | 20% |
| Spread -13.5 | 19% |
| OG Anunoby: Points O/U 19.5 | 19% |
| Payton Pritchard: Points O/U 19.5 | 19% |
| OG Anunoby: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 19% |
| Neemias Queta: Points O/U 9.5 | 19% |
| Jayson Tatum: Points O/U 29.5 | 18% |
| Mikal Bridges: Assists O/U 3.5 | 18% |
| Derrick White: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 18% |
| Derrick White: Points O/U 19.5 | 17% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Assists O/U 5.5 | 17% |
| Payton Pritchard: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 17% |
| Sam Hauser: Points O/U 9.5 | 17% |
| Spread -11.5 | 16% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 16% |
| Paul George: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 16% |
| Jayson Tatum: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 15% |
| OG Anunoby: Points O/U 24.5 | 14% |
| Josh Hart: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 14% |
| Josh Hart: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 14% |
| Mikal Bridges: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 14% |
| OG Anunoby: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 14% |
| Spread -16.5 | 13% |
| Paul George: Points O/U 24.5 | 13% |
| Jalen Brunson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 13% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 11% |
| Derrick White: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 11% |
| Paul George: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 11% |
| Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 34.5 | 10% |
| Jayson Tatum: Points O/U 34.5 | 10% |
| Derrick White: Assists O/U 7.5 | 10% |
| Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 9.5 | 10% |
| Jayson Tatum: Assists O/U 9.5 | 10% |
| Payton Pritchard: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 10% |
| Mitchell Robinson: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 10% |
| Josh Hart: Points O/U 19.5 | 9% |
| Jalen Brunson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 9% |
| Neemias Queta: Points O/U 14.5 | 9% |
| Payton Pritchard: Points O/U 24.5 | 8% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Assists O/U 7.5 | 8% |
| OG Anunoby: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 8% |
| Sam Hauser: Points O/U 14.5 | 8% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 29.5 | 7% |
| Josh Hart: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 7% |
| Mitchell Robinson: Points O/U 14.5 | 5% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 78% YES probability for Knicks vs. Celtics. In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 23 at 7:00PM ET: If the Knicks win, the market will resolve to "Knicks". If the Celtics win, the market will resolve to "Celtics". If the game is postpo…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $93K.
Methodology
This page tracks Knicks vs. Celtics across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Election Predictions UK provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.
Resolution & payout
Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- How accurate are political prediction markets?
- Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.
- What resolution source is used for elections?
- Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.
- Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?
- Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.
- How fast do political markets react to news?
- High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.
- Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?
- Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.
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