Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Election Predictions UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
96% | 4% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
96% | 4% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 198.5 | 96% |
| O/U 202.5 | 95% |
| O/U 200.5 | 95% |
| O/U 204.5 | 93% |
| O/U 206.5 | 92% |
| O/U 208.5 | 91% |
| O/U 210.5 | 87% |
| O/U 212.5 | 83% |
| O/U 214.5 | 81% |
| O/U 216.5 | 77% |
| Evan Mobley: Assists O/U 1.5 | 76% |
| James Harden: Assists O/U 3.5 | 76% |
| 1Q O/U 53.5 | 76% |
| Isaiah Hartenstein: Assists O/U 1.5 | 75% |
| 3Q O/U 50.5 | 75% |
| O/U 218.5 | 73% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 14.5 | 73% |
| Evan Mobley: Points O/U 9.5 | 73% |
| Jared McCain: Points O/U 9.5 | 73% |
| James Harden: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 73% |
| Thunder 1H O/U 53.5 | 72% |
| Thunder O/U 106.5 | 72% |
| Ajay Mitchell: Assists O/U 1.5 | 71% |
| Cavaliers 1H O/U 55.5 | 71% |
| Isaiah Hartenstein: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 70% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 70% |
| O/U 220.5 | 69% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Assists O/U 1.5 | 69% |
| 2Q O/U 53.5 | 69% |
| 1H O/U 111.5 | 69% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 19.5 | 68% |
| Isaiah Hartenstein: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 68% |
| Jarrett Allen: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 68% |
| 1Q O/U 55.5 | 68% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 3.5 | 67% |
| Ajay Mitchell: Points O/U 14.5 | 66% |
| Evan Mobley: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 66% |
| O/U 222.5 | 65% |
| Ajay Mitchell: Points O/U 9.5 | 65% |
| Thunder O/U 108.5 | 64% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 19.5 | 63% |
| Isaiah Hartenstein: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 63% |
| Thunder 1H O/U 55.5 | 63% |
| Jarrett Allen: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 62% |
| Cavaliers O/U 114.5 | 62% |
| 2Q O/U 55.5 | 61% |
| Cavaliers 1H O/U 57.5 | 61% |
| 1H O/U 113.5 | 61% |
| 3Q O/U 52.5 | 61% |
| O/U 224.5 | 60% |
| Spread -1.5 | 60% |
| James Harden: Assists O/U 5.5 | 60% |
| Kenrich Williams: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 60% |
| 3Q O/U 54.5 | 60% |
| James Harden: Points O/U 9.5 | 59% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 24.5 | 59% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Assists O/U 3.5 | 59% |
| Thunder O/U 110.5 | 58% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 57% |
| 1Q O/U 57.5 | 57% |
| O/U 226.5 | 56% |
| Spread -2.5 | 56% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 56% |
| Evan Mobley: Points O/U 14.5 | 56% |
| 1H O/U 115.5 | 56% |
| Cavaliers O/U 112.5 | 56% |
| O/U 227.5 | 55% |
| Jared McCain: Assists O/U 1.5 | 55% |
| Ajay Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 55% |
| Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 55% |
| Ajay Mitchell: Assists O/U 3.5 | 54% |
| Jarrett Allen: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 54% |
| Cavaliers O/U 110.5 | 54% |
| Spread -3.5 | 53% |
| Isaiah Hartenstein: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 53% |
| O/U 228.5 | 52% |
| Evan Mobley: Points O/U 16.5 | 52% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 9.5 | 52% |
| Isaiah Hartenstein: Points O/U 4.5 | 52% |
| Jarrett Allen: Points O/U 4.5 | 52% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 9.5 | 52% |
| Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 52% |
| Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 52% |
| Isaiah Hartenstein: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 52% |
| James Harden: Assists O/U 1.5 | 52% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 1.5 | 52% |
| Aday Mara: Points O/U 4.5 | 52% |
| Aday Mara: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 52% |
| Aday Mara: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 52% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 52% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 52% |
| Thunder 1H O/U 57.5 | 52% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 29.5 | 51% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 14.5 | 51% |
| Jarrett Allen: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| Sam Merrill: Points O/U 4.5 | 51% |
| 2Q O/U 57.5 | 51% |
| 4Q O/U 54.5 | 51% |
| Cavaliers O/U 116.5 | 51% |
| Team to Score First | 50% |
| Odd/Even Score | 50% |
| Overtime? | 50% |
| Race to 10 | 50% |
| Race to 20 | 50% |
| Race to 30 | 50% |
| Isaiah Hartenstein: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 52.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| Cavaliers O/U 120.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| Spread -4.5 | 49% |
| James Harden: Points O/U 14.5 | 49% |
| Aday Mara: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 49% |
| Kenrich Williams: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Sam Merrill: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Aday Mara: Points O/U 19.5 | 49% |
| Thunder O/U 112.5 | 49% |
| Cavaliers 1H O/U 59.5 | 49% |
| Ajay Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 48% |
| Evan Mobley: Assists O/U 3.5 | 48% |
| James Harden: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 48% |
| Jared McCain: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 48% |
| 1H O/U 117.5 | 48% |
| O/U 230.5 | 47% |
| Jared McCain: Points O/U 14.5 | 47% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 5.5 | 47% |
| Jarrett Allen: Points O/U 9.5 | 47% |
| Jared McCain: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 47% |
| Jarrett Allen: Assists O/U 1.5 | 47% |
| Donovan Mitchell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 47% |
| Kenrich Williams: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 47% |
| Sam Merrill: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 47% |
| 1Q O/U 59.5 | 47% |
| Thunder O/U 113.5 | 47% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 46% |
| Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 46% |
| Spread -5.5 | 45% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 45% |
| Kenrich Williams: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 45% |
| James Harden: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 44% |
| Kenrich Williams: Points O/U 4.5 | 44% |
| Sam Merrill: Points O/U 9.5 | 44% |
| 1H O/U 119.5 | 44% |
| O/U 232.5 | 43% |
| Bennett Stirtz: Points O/U 4.5 | 43% |
| Aday Mara: Assists O/U 1.5 | 43% |
| Bennett Stirtz: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 43% |
| Aday Mara: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 43% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 43% |
| 2Q O/U 59.5 | 43% |
| Cavaliers O/U 118.5 | 43% |
| Thunder O/U 114.5 | 43% |
| Spread -6.5 | 42% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 24.5 | 42% |
| Isaiah Hartenstein: Rebounds O/U 17.5 | 42% |
| 1Q O/U 61.5 | 42% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 42% |
| Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 41% |
| Evan Mobley: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 41% |
| Jarrett Allen: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 41% |
| Kenrich Williams: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 41% |
| Sam Merrill: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 41% |
| Aday Mara: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 41% |
| 1H Moneyline | 41% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 41% |
| 3Q O/U 58.5 | 41% |
| Thunder vs. Cavaliers | 40% |
| James Harden: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 40% |
| Ajay Mitchell: Steals O/U 0.5 | 40% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 40% |
| Cavaliers 1H O/U 61.5 | 40% |
| Spread -7.5 | 39% |
| Donovan Mitchell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 39% |
| Bennett Stirtz: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 39% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 39% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 39% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 39% |
| Thunder 1H O/U 59.5 | 39% |
| O/U 234.5 | 38% |
| Ajay Mitchell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 38% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Steals O/U 0.5 | 38% |
| Jarrett Allen: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 38% |
| Spread -1.5 | 37% |
| Jared McCain: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 37% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Steals O/U 0.5 | 37% |
| Bennett Stirtz: Assists O/U 1.5 | 37% |
| 1H O/U 121.5 | 37% |
| Thunder O/U 116.5 | 37% |
| Spread -8.5 | 36% |
| James Harden: Steals O/U 0.5 | 36% |
| Kenrich Williams: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 36% |
| Sam Merrill: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 36% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 36% |
| O/U 236.5 | 35% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 22.5 | 35% |
| Evan Mobley: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 35% |
| Kenrich Williams: Points O/U 9.5 | 35% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 35% |
| James Harden: Assists O/U 7.5 | 34% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 34% |
| 1Q O/U 63.5 | 34% |
| Spread -9.5 | 33% |
| Aday Mara: Points O/U 9.5 | 33% |
| 3Q O/U 60.5 | 33% |
| Jared McCain: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 32% |
| Evan Mobley: Points O/U 19.5 | 32% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 32% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 32% |
| 1H O/U 123.5 | 32% |
| Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| O/U 238.5 | 31% |
| Isaiah Hartenstein: Assists O/U 3.5 | 31% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 31% |
| 2Q O/U 61.5 | 31% |
| Thunder 1H O/U 61.5 | 31% |
| Spread -10.5 | 30% |
| Ajay Mitchell: Points O/U 17.5 | 30% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 30% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Assists O/U 4.5 | 30% |
| Isaiah Hartenstein: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 30% |
| Donovan Mitchell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 6.5 | 30% |
| Cavaliers 1H O/U 63.5 | 30% |
| James Harden: Assists O/U 6.5 | 29% |
| James Harden: Points O/U 19.5 | 29% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 29% |
| O/U 240.5 | 28% |
| Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 8.5 | 28% |
| James Harden: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 28% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 34.5 | 28% |
| Jarrett Allen: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 28% |
| James Harden: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 28% |
| James Harden: Points O/U 18.5 | 27% |
| Ajay Mitchell: Points O/U 19.5 | 27% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Assists O/U 5.5 | 27% |
| Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 27% |
| Jared McCain: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 27% |
| Spread -12.5 | 26% |
| Spread -5.5 | 26% |
| Jarrett Allen: Points O/U 14.5 | 26% |
| Donovan Mitchell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 26% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 25% |
| Isaiah Hartenstein: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 25% |
| James Harden: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 25% |
| O/U 242.5 | 24% |
| Bennett Stirtz: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 24% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 24% |
| Ajay Mitchell: Steals O/U 1.5 | 23% |
| Spread -7.5 | 22% |
| Ajay Mitchell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 22% |
| Evan Mobley: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 22% |
| Spread -16.5 | 21% |
| O/U 244.5 | 21% |
| Bennett Stirtz: Points O/U 9.5 | 21% |
| Kenrich Williams: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 21% |
| Spread -14.5 | 20% |
| Isaiah Hartenstein: Points O/U 14.5 | 20% |
| Jared McCain: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 20% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Steals O/U 1.5 | 20% |
| Aday Mara: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 20% |
| Sam Merrill: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 20% |
| Ajay Mitchell: Assists O/U 5.5 | 19% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Steals O/U 1.5 | 19% |
| James Harden: Steals O/U 1.5 | 19% |
| O/U 246.5 | 18% |
| Jared McCain: Points O/U 19.5 | 18% |
| Isaiah Hartenstein: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 18% |
| Spread -9.5 | 17% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 17% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 7.5 | 17% |
| Evan Mobley: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 17% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 17% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 29.5 | 16% |
| Ajay Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 16% |
| Donovan Mitchell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 16% |
| James Harden: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 16% |
| Jared McCain: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 16% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 15% |
| Spread -18.5 | 14% |
| O/U 248.5 | 14% |
| Spread -28.5 | 14% |
| Ajay Mitchell: Points O/U 24.5 | 14% |
| Evan Mobley: Assists O/U 5.5 | 14% |
| Sam Merrill: Points O/U 14.5 | 14% |
| Bennett Stirtz: Assists O/U 3.5 | 14% |
| Sam Merrill: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 14% |
| Spread -11.5 | 13% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 9.5 | 13% |
| Isaiah Hartenstein: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 13% |
| Aday Mara: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 13% |
| O/U 250.5 | 12% |
| Ajay Mitchell: Points O/U 29.5 | 12% |
| James Harden: Points O/U 24.5 | 12% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 39.5 | 12% |
| Isaiah Hartenstein: Assists O/U 5.5 | 12% |
| Ajay Mitchell: Steals O/U 2.5 | 12% |
| Bennett Stirtz: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 12% |
| O/U 252.5 | 11% |
| Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 11% |
| Jarrett Allen: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 11% |
| Jarrett Allen: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 11% |
| Bennett Stirtz: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 11% |
| Spread -20.5 | 10% |
| Spread -13.5 | 10% |
| James Harden: Assists O/U 9.5 | 10% |
| Jared McCain: Assists O/U 3.5 | 10% |
| Ajay Mitchell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 10% |
| Bennett Stirtz: Points O/U 14.5 | 10% |
| Aday Mara: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 10% |
| Kenrich Williams: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 10% |
| O/U 254.5 | 9% |
| Donovan Mitchell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 9% |
| James Harden: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 9% |
| Jared McCain: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 9% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Steals O/U 2.5 | 9% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Steals O/U 2.5 | 9% |
| Evan Mobley: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 9% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 9% |
| Aday Mara: Points O/U 14.5 | 9% |
| Kenrich Williams: Points O/U 14.5 | 9% |
| Spread -22.5 | 8% |
| Spread -15.5 | 8% |
| Evan Mobley: Points O/U 24.5 | 8% |
| Jarrett Allen: Points O/U 19.5 | 8% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 8% |
| James Harden: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 8% |
| Jared McCain: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 8% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Assists O/U 7.5 | 8% |
| Bennett Stirtz: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 8% |
| Spread -24.5 | 7% |
| Spread -26.5 | 7% |
| Spread -19.5 | 7% |
| Spread -30.5 | 7% |
| Jared McCain: Points O/U 24.5 | 7% |
| Sam Merrill: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 7% |
| Jared McCain: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 7% |
| Spread -17.5 | 6% |
| Spread -21.5 | 6% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 34.5 | 6% |
| James Harden: Points O/U 29.5 | 6% |
| Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 6% |
| Isaiah Hartenstein: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 6% |
| Jarrett Allen: Assists O/U 3.5 | 6% |
| Ajay Mitchell: Assists O/U 7.5 | 6% |
| Sam Merrill: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 6% |
| Aday Mara: Assists O/U 3.5 | 6% |
| Jarrett Allen: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 6% |
| Spread -23.5 | 5% |
| Spread -32.5 | 5% |
| Isaiah Hartenstein: Points O/U 19.5 | 5% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 44.5 | 5% |
| James Harden: Assists O/U 11.5 | 5% |
| Evan Mobley: Assists O/U 7.5 | 5% |
| Ajay Mitchell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 5% |
| Kenrich Williams: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 5% |
| Bennett Stirtz: Assists O/U 5.5 | 5% |
| James Harden: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 5% |
| Evan Mobley: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 5% |
| Evan Mobley: Points O/U 29.5 | 5% |
| Sam Merrill: Points O/U 19.5 | 5% |
| Aday Mara: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 5% |
| Ajay Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 5% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 5% |
| Donovan Mitchell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 5% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 39.5 | 4% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 4% |
| James Harden: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 4% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Assists O/U 9.5 | 4% |
| Jarrett Allen: Points O/U 24.5 | 4% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 4% |
| Kenrich Williams: Points O/U 19.5 | 4% |
| Bennett Stirtz: Points O/U 19.5 | 4% |
| Isaiah Hartenstein: Assists O/U 7.5 | 3% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 65.5 | 0% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 0% |
| 3Q O/U 62.5 | 0% |
| Cavaliers O/U 122.5 | 0% |
| Thunder O/U 118.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 109.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 51.5 | 0% |
| Cavaliers O/U 108.5 | 0% |
| Thunder O/U 104.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 125.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 67.5 | 0% |
| Cavaliers O/U 124.5 | 0% |
| Thunder O/U 120.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 107.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 49.5 | 0% |
| Cavaliers O/U 106.5 | 0% |
| Thunder O/U 102.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -11.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 127.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 69.5 | 0% |
| Cavaliers O/U 126.5 | 0% |
| Thunder O/U 122.5 | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, thunder vs. cavaliers stands at 96% likelihood according to current market consensus. In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for November 2 at 7:00PM ET: If the Thunder win, the market will resolve to "Thunder". If the Cavaliers win, the market will resolve to "Cavalie…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $389K.
Methodology
This page tracks Thunder vs. Cavaliers across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Election Predictions UK provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.
Resolution & payout
Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- How accurate are political prediction markets?
- Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.
- What resolution source is used for elections?
- Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.
- Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?
- Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.
- How fast do political markets react to news?
- High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.
- Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?
- Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.
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