Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Election Predictions UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
91% | 9% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
91% | 9% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 204.5 | 91% |
| O/U 206.5 | 89% |
| O/U 208.5 | 86% |
| O/U 210.5 | 84% |
| O/U 212.5 | 80% |
| O/U 214.5 | 77% |
| 1Q O/U 53.5 | 74% |
| O/U 216.5 | 73% |
| Warriors 1H O/U 55.5 | 71% |
| O/U 218.5 | 69% |
| Suns 1H O/U 53.5 | 69% |
| 2Q O/U 53.5 | 68% |
| O/U 220.5 | 67% |
| 1Q O/U 55.5 | 67% |
| 1H O/U 111.5 | 67% |
| Suns O/U 108.5 | 65% |
| Suns 1H O/U 55.5 | 64% |
| O/U 222.5 | 61% |
| Warriors 1H O/U 57.5 | 61% |
| 1H O/U 113.5 | 61% |
| 2Q O/U 55.5 | 60% |
| Collin Gillespie: Assists O/U 3.5 | 58% |
| O/U 224.5 | 57% |
| Miles Bridges: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 57% |
| Brandin Podziemski: Assists O/U 1.5 | 57% |
| 1Q O/U 57.5 | 57% |
| Warriors O/U 113.5 | 57% |
| Suns O/U 110.5 | 57% |
| Spread -1.5 | 56% |
| Collin Gillespie: Assists O/U 1.5 | 56% |
| 1H O/U 115.5 | 56% |
| Miles Bridges: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 55% |
| Devin Booker: Points O/U 14.5 | 54% |
| Dillon Brooks: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 54% |
| O/U 226.5 | 53% |
| 2Q O/U 57.5 | 53% |
| Spread -2.5 | 52% |
| O/U 227.5 | 52% |
| Jalen Green: Points O/U 9.5 | 52% |
| Miles Bridges: Points O/U 9.5 | 52% |
| Brandin Podziemski: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 52% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 52% |
| Suns O/U 112.5 | 52% |
| Miles Bridges: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| Devin Booker: Assists O/U 3.5 | 51% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 51% |
| Warriors O/U 115.5 | 51% |
| Suns 1H O/U 57.5 | 51% |
| Team to Score First | 50% |
| Odd/Even Score | 50% |
| Overtime? | 50% |
| Race to 10 | 50% |
| Race to 20 | 50% |
| Race to 30 | 50% |
| Jalen Green: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Khaman Maluach: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Brandin Podziemski: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 55.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 53.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 55.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 51.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| Warriors O/U 111.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| Warriors O/U 119.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 49.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Goodwin: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Goodwin: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Goodwin: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Goodwin: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Goodwin: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Goodwin: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Warriors O/U 109.5 | 50% |
| Suns O/U 106.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 123.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 65.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 61.5 | 50% |
| Warriors O/U 121.5 | 50% |
| Suns O/U 118.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 109.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 51.5 | 50% |
| Warriors O/U 107.5 | 50% |
| Suns O/U 104.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 67.5 | 50% |
| Warriors O/U 123.5 | 50% |
| Suns O/U 120.5 | 50% |
| O/U 228.5 | 49% |
| Khaman Maluach: Points O/U 4.5 | 49% |
| Khaman Maluach: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Khaman Maluach: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 49% |
| Collin Gillespie: Points O/U 4.5 | 49% |
| Devin Booker: Points O/U 9.5 | 49% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 49% |
| Devin Booker: Assists O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Miles Bridges: Assists O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Brandin Podziemski: Steals O/U 0.5 | 49% |
| Brandin Podziemski: Steals O/U 2.5 | 49% |
| Collin Gillespie: Steals O/U 0.5 | 49% |
| Collin Gillespie: Steals O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Collin Gillespie: Steals O/U 2.5 | 49% |
| Jalen Green: Steals O/U 2.5 | 49% |
| Khaman Maluach: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 49% |
| Khaman Maluach: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Khaman Maluach: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 49% |
| 4Q O/U 53.5 | 49% |
| Warriors 1H O/U 59.5 | 49% |
| 4Q O/U 51.5 | 49% |
| Spread -3.5 | 48% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Points O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| Devin Booker: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 48% |
| Jalen Green: Assists O/U 1.5 | 48% |
| Brandin Podziemski: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 48% |
| 1H O/U 117.5 | 48% |
| 1Q O/U 59.5 | 48% |
| O/U 229.5 | 47% |
| Khaman Maluach: Points O/U 8.5 | 47% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Points O/U 29.5 | 47% |
| Collin Gillespie: Assists O/U 9.5 | 47% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Assists O/U 1.5 | 47% |
| Brandin Podziemski: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 47% |
| Brandin Podziemski: Points O/U 29.5 | 47% |
| Miles Bridges: Points O/U 29.5 | 47% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Points O/U 34.5 | 47% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 47% |
| Collin Gillespie: Points O/U 9.5 | 46% |
| Devin Booker: Points O/U 19.5 | 46% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Points O/U 19.5 | 46% |
| Collin Gillespie: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 46% |
| Brandin Podziemski: Assists O/U 9.5 | 46% |
| Collin Gillespie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 46% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 46% |
| Spread -4.5 | 45% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 45% |
| Brandin Podziemski: Assists O/U 3.5 | 45% |
| Jalen Green: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 45% |
| Suns vs. Warriors | 44% |
| O/U 230.5 | 44% |
| Brandin Podziemski: Points O/U 9.5 | 44% |
| Dillon Brooks: Points O/U 9.5 | 44% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Assists O/U 3.5 | 44% |
| Dillon Brooks: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 44% |
| Miles Bridges: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 44% |
| 1H Moneyline | 44% |
| 2Q O/U 59.5 | 43% |
| Warriors O/U 117.5 | 43% |
| Suns O/U 114.5 | 43% |
| Spread -5.5 | 42% |
| Dillon Brooks: Points O/U 16.5 | 42% |
| Khaman Maluach: Points O/U 19.5 | 42% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 42% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 42% |
| 1H O/U 119.5 | 42% |
| Jalen Green: Points O/U 14.5 | 41% |
| Devin Booker: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 41% |
| Devin Booker: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 41% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 41% |
| O/U 232.5 | 40% |
| Spread -1.5 | 40% |
| Dillon Brooks: Points O/U 14.5 | 40% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Points O/U 14.5 | 40% |
| Dillon Brooks: Assists O/U 1.5 | 40% |
| Khaman Maluach: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 40% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 40% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 40% |
| Spread -6.5 | 39% |
| Miles Bridges: Points O/U 14.5 | 39% |
| Dillon Brooks: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 38% |
| Jalen Green: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 38% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 38% |
| Collin Gillespie: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 37% |
| Brandin Podziemski: Points O/U 14.5 | 37% |
| Devin Booker: Assists O/U 9.5 | 37% |
| Collin Gillespie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 37% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 37% |
| 1Q O/U 61.5 | 37% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 37% |
| Warriors 1H O/U 61.5 | 37% |
| Suns O/U 116.5 | 37% |
| Spread -7.5 | 36% |
| O/U 234.5 | 36% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 36% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 36% |
| Devin Booker: Points O/U 22.5 | 35% |
| Devin Booker: Assists O/U 5.5 | 35% |
| Devin Booker: Points O/U 24.5 | 35% |
| Jalen Green: Steals O/U 0.5 | 35% |
| 1H O/U 121.5 | 35% |
| 2Q O/U 61.5 | 35% |
| Spread -3.5 | 34% |
| Brandin Podziemski: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 34% |
| 1Q O/U 63.5 | 34% |
| Spread -8.5 | 33% |
| Devin Booker: Points O/U 39.5 | 33% |
| Brandin Podziemski: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 33% |
| Brandin Podziemski: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 33% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 33% |
| Collin Gillespie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 6.5 | 33% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 33% |
| O/U 236.5 | 32% |
| Khaman Maluach: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 32% |
| Dillon Brooks: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 32% |
| Miles Bridges: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 32% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 32% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 32% |
| Jalen Green: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 31% |
| Spread -9.5 | 30% |
| O/U 238.5 | 30% |
| Khaman Maluach: Points O/U 14.5 | 30% |
| Miles Bridges: Assists O/U 2.5 | 30% |
| Jalen Green: Assists O/U 2.5 | 30% |
| Miles Bridges: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 30% |
| Khaman Maluach: Points O/U 9.5 | 29% |
| Khaman Maluach: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 29% |
| Warriors 1H O/U 63.5 | 29% |
| Suns 1H O/U 61.5 | 29% |
| Spread -5.5 | 28% |
| Miles Bridges: Points O/U 15.5 | 28% |
| Jalen Green: Points O/U 15.5 | 28% |
| Suns 1H O/U 59.5 | 28% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 28% |
| Spread -10.5 | 27% |
| Devin Booker: Points O/U 23.5 | 27% |
| Khaman Maluach: Points O/U 7.5 | 27% |
| Devin Booker: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 27% |
| Dillon Brooks: Points O/U 34.5 | 26% |
| Dillon Brooks: Points O/U 15.5 | 26% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 26% |
| O/U 240.5 | 25% |
| Spread -11.5 | 25% |
| Miles Bridges: Points O/U 19.5 | 25% |
| Miles Bridges: Assists O/U 3.5 | 25% |
| Khaman Maluach: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 24% |
| Miles Bridges: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 24% |
| Jalen Green: Assists O/U 3.5 | 24% |
| Collin Gillespie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 24% |
| Brandin Podziemski: Steals O/U 1.5 | 24% |
| O/U 242.5 | 23% |
| Spread -12.5 | 23% |
| Collin Gillespie: Assists O/U 4.5 | 23% |
| Spread -7.5 | 22% |
| Dillon Brooks: Points O/U 17.5 | 22% |
| Dillon Brooks: Assists O/U 2.5 | 22% |
| Jordan Goodwin: Assists O/U 2.5 | 22% |
| Devin Booker: Points O/U 29.5 | 22% |
| Dillon Brooks: Points O/U 19.5 | 22% |
| Devin Booker: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 21% |
| Collin Gillespie: Assists O/U 5.5 | 21% |
| Brandin Podziemski: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 21% |
| Dillon Brooks: Points O/U 29.5 | 20% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 20% |
| O/U 244.5 | 19% |
| Jalen Green: Points O/U 19.5 | 19% |
| Brandin Podziemski: Assists O/U 5.5 | 19% |
| Dillon Brooks: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 19% |
| Miles Bridges: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 19% |
| Jalen Green: Points O/U 29.5 | 19% |
| Spread -14.5 | 18% |
| Spread -9.5 | 18% |
| Collin Gillespie: Points O/U 14.5 | 18% |
| Jalen Green: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 18% |
| Jalen Green: Steals O/U 1.5 | 18% |
| O/U 246.5 | 17% |
| Brandin Podziemski: Points O/U 19.5 | 17% |
| Dillon Brooks: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 17% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 17% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Points O/U 24.5 | 16% |
| Spread -16.5 | 15% |
| O/U 248.5 | 14% |
| Spread -11.5 | 14% |
| Dillon Brooks: Assists O/U 3.5 | 14% |
| Collin Gillespie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 14% |
| Devin Booker: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 14% |
| Jalen Green: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 13% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Assists O/U 5.5 | 13% |
| O/U 250.5 | 12% |
| Spread -13.5 | 12% |
| Devin Booker: Assists O/U 7.5 | 12% |
| Spread -18.5 | 11% |
| Brandin Podziemski: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 11% |
| Collin Gillespie: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 11% |
| Brandin Podziemski: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 11% |
| O/U 252.5 | 10% |
| Dillon Brooks: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 10% |
| Miles Bridges: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 10% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 10% |
| Spread -32.5 | 9% |
| Jalen Green: Points O/U 24.5 | 9% |
| Miles Bridges: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 9% |
| Jalen Green: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 9% |
| Spread -20.5 | 8% |
| Spread -15.5 | 8% |
| O/U 258.5 | 8% |
| Miles Bridges: Points O/U 24.5 | 8% |
| Devin Booker: Points O/U 34.5 | 8% |
| Collin Gillespie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 8% |
| Spread -22.5 | 7% |
| O/U 254.5 | 7% |
| O/U 256.5 | 7% |
| Spread -17.5 | 7% |
| O/U 260.5 | 7% |
| Dillon Brooks: Points O/U 24.5 | 7% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 7% |
| Devin Booker: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 7% |
| Spread -24.5 | 6% |
| Brandin Podziemski: Points O/U 24.5 | 6% |
| Brandin Podziemski: Assists O/U 7.5 | 6% |
| Jalen Green: Assists O/U 5.5 | 6% |
| Miles Bridges: Assists O/U 5.5 | 6% |
| Brandin Podziemski: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 6% |
| Collin Gillespie: Points O/U 19.5 | 6% |
| Devin Booker: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 6% |
| Collin Gillespie: Assists O/U 7.5 | 6% |
| Spread -26.5 | 5% |
| Spread -19.5 | 5% |
| Dillon Brooks: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 5% |
| Jalen Green: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 5% |
| Dillon Brooks: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 5% |
| Jalen Green: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 5% |
| Miles Bridges: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 5% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 5% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Assists O/U 7.5 | 5% |
| Spread -34.5 | 4% |
| Dillon Brooks: Assists O/U 5.5 | 4% |
| Collin Gillespie: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 4% |
| Devin Booker: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 4% |
| Spread -28.5 | 3% |
| Spread -30.5 | 3% |
| Spread -21.5 | 3% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 91% probability to suns vs. warriors. In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for November 2 at 10:00PM ET: If the Suns win, the market will resolve to "Suns". If the Warriors win, the market will resolve to "Warriors". If the game is postpon…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $338K.
Methodology
Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Suns vs. Warriors plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.
Resolution & payout
For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- How accurate are political prediction markets?
- Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.
- Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?
- Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.
- Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?
- Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.
- How fast do political markets react to news?
- High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.
- Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?
- Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.
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