Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Election Predictions UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
95% | 5% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
95% | 5% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 203.5 | 95% |
| O/U 205.5 | 94% |
| O/U 207.5 | 93% |
| O/U 209.5 | 91% |
| O/U 211.5 | 89% |
| Spurs vs. Mavericks | 84% |
| O/U 213.5 | 84% |
| Spurs O/U 111.5 | 84% |
| O/U 215.5 | 82% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 19.5 | 82% |
| Mavericks O/U 98.5 | 82% |
| Spread -2.5 | 80% |
| 1H O/U 102.5 | 80% |
| 1H O/U 108.5 | 80% |
| O/U 217.5 | 79% |
| Spread -3.5 | 78% |
| 1H O/U 112.5 | 78% |
| Spurs O/U 113.5 | 78% |
| Mavericks O/U 100.5 | 77% |
| Spread -4.5 | 76% |
| O/U 219.5 | 76% |
| 1H Moneyline | 76% |
| 1H O/U 104.5 | 76% |
| 1H O/U 106.5 | 76% |
| Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 75% |
| 1H O/U 110.5 | 75% |
| Spread -5.5 | 73% |
| O/U 220.5 | 73% |
| Spurs O/U 115.5 | 73% |
| Mavericks O/U 102.5 | 72% |
| Spread -6.5 | 70% |
| O/U 221.5 | 70% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 69% |
| Mavericks O/U 96.5 | 68% |
| O/U 223.5 | 67% |
| Spread -7.5 | 67% |
| Stephon Castle: Points O/U 14.5 | 67% |
| Spurs O/U 117.5 | 67% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 66% |
| 1H O/U 114.5 | 66% |
| Mavericks O/U 104.5 | 66% |
| Spread -8.5 | 64% |
| O/U 225.5 | 63% |
| Spread -9.5 | 62% |
| O/U 226.5 | 61% |
| Spurs O/U 119.5 | 61% |
| 1H O/U 116.5 | 60% |
| Mavericks O/U 106.5 | 60% |
| Spread -10.5 | 59% |
| O/U 227.5 | 59% |
| Devin Vassell: Points O/U 9.5 | 59% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 24.5 | 59% |
| Naji Marshall: Points O/U 14.5 | 59% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 57% |
| Spread -11.5 | 56% |
| O/U 228.5 | 56% |
| Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 5.5 | 56% |
| 1H O/U 118.5 | 55% |
| O/U 229.5 | 54% |
| Dylan Harper: Assists O/U 3.5 | 54% |
| Spurs O/U 121.5 | 54% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 53% |
| O/U 230.5 | 52% |
| Spread -12.5 | 52% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 52% |
| Spurs O/U 109.5 | 52% |
| P.J. Washington: Assists O/U 1.5 | 52% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 51% |
| Dylan Harper: Assists O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Steals O/U 2.5 | 51% |
| Naji Marshall: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| 1Q O/U 60.5 | 51% |
| Mavericks O/U 108.5 | 51% |
| Daniel Gafford: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| Team to Score First | 50% |
| Odd/Even Score | 50% |
| Overtime? | 50% |
| Race to 10 | 50% |
| Race to 20 | 50% |
| Race to 30 | 50% |
| O/U 231.5 | 50% |
| Devin Vassell: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Stephon Castle: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Dylan Harper: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Stephon Castle: Points O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Dylan Harper: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Dylan Harper: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Dylan Harper: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Stephon Castle: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Stephon Castle: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Stephon Castle: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Blocks O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Blocks O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Blocks O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Kyrie Irving: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Kyrie Irving: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Kyrie Irving: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Kyrie Irving: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Kyrie Irving: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Naji Marshall: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Naji Marshall: Assists O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Naji Marshall: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Naji Marshall: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Naji Marshall: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -25.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 62.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 64.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 48.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 50.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 52.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 50.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 52.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 52.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks 1H O/U 51.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks 1H O/U 53.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks 1H O/U 55.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks 1H O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks 1H O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks 2H O/U 50.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks 2H O/U 52.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks 2H O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks 2H O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks 2H O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| Spurs 1H O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| Spurs 1H O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| Spurs 1H O/U 62.5 | 50% |
| Spurs 2H O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| Spurs 2H O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| Spurs 2H O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| Spurs 2H O/U 62.5 | 50% |
| Spurs 2H O/U 64.5 | 50% |
| Daniel Gafford: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Max Christie: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| P.J. Washington: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Daniel Gafford: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Daniel Gafford: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Daniel Gafford: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| P.J. Washington: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| P.J. Washington: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| P.J. Washington: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Devin Vassell: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Devin Vassell: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Devin Vassell: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 49% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 14.5 | 49% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Devin Vassell: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Kyrie Irving: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 49% |
| Naji Marshall: Assists O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| P.J. Washington: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 49% |
| Spread -13.5 | 48% |
| Dylan Harper: Points O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 3.5 | 48% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 1.5 | 48% |
| Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 48% |
| Kyrie Irving: Assists O/U 1.5 | 48% |
| Naji Marshall: Points O/U 29.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -11.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -15.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -19.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -23.5 | 48% |
| 4Q O/U 56.5 | 48% |
| Max Christie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 48% |
| Devin Vassell: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 47% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 5.5 | 47% |
| Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 3.5 | 47% |
| Devin Vassell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 47% |
| Victor Wembanyama: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 47% |
| Naji Marshall: Points O/U 9.5 | 47% |
| 1H O/U 120.5 | 47% |
| Max Christie: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 47% |
| Max Christie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 47% |
| Max Christie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 47% |
| O/U 233.5 | 46% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 46% |
| Spurs O/U 123.5 | 46% |
| Daniel Gafford: Points O/U 19.5 | 46% |
| Daniel Gafford: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 46% |
| Kyrie Irving: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 46% |
| Spread -14.5 | 45% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 9.5 | 45% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 45% |
| Daniel Gafford: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 45% |
| Mavericks O/U 110.5 | 44% |
| P.J. Washington: Points O/U 29.5 | 44% |
| P.J. Washington: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 44% |
| O/U 234.5 | 43% |
| Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 43% |
| Dylan Harper: Assists O/U 9.5 | 43% |
| De'Aaron Fox: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 43% |
| P.J. Washington: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 43% |
| Devin Vassell: Assists O/U 1.5 | 42% |
| Stephon Castle: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 42% |
| Kyrie Irving: Points O/U 14.5 | 42% |
| P.J. Washington: Points O/U 9.5 | 42% |
| Daniel Gafford: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 42% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 11.5 | 41% |
| Dylan Harper: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 41% |
| 1H O/U 122.5 | 41% |
| 2Q O/U 62.5 | 41% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 41% |
| Max Christie: Points O/U 24.5 | 41% |
| O/U 236.5 | 40% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 7.5 | 40% |
| Naji Marshall: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 40% |
| Naji Marshall: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 40% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 40% |
| Mavericks O/U 112.5 | 40% |
| Spread -16.5 | 39% |
| Daniel Gafford: Points O/U 9.5 | 39% |
| Dylan Harper: Points O/U 34.5 | 38% |
| 2Q O/U 60.5 | 38% |
| P.J. Washington: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 38% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 37% |
| Devin Vassell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 37% |
| Kyrie Irving: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 37% |
| Dylan Harper: Points O/U 14.5 | 36% |
| Dylan Harper: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 35% |
| Kyrie Irving: Assists O/U 3.5 | 35% |
| Mavericks O/U 114.5 | 35% |
| Kyrie Irving: Points O/U 39.5 | 35% |
| Daniel Gafford: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 35% |
| O/U 239.5 | 34% |
| Spread -18.5 | 34% |
| Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 11.5 | 34% |
| Kyrie Irving: Points O/U 19.5 | 34% |
| Max Christie: Assists O/U 1.5 | 34% |
| Max Christie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 34% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 44.5 | 33% |
| Naji Marshall: Assists O/U 3.5 | 33% |
| 3Q O/U 56.5 | 33% |
| Spurs 1H O/U 64.5 | 33% |
| Max Christie: Points O/U 9.5 | 33% |
| Spread -19.5 | 32% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 2.5 | 32% |
| 4Q O/U 54.5 | 32% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 29.5 | 31% |
| Victor Wembanyama: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 31% |
| Victor Wembanyama: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 31% |
| 3Q O/U 62.5 | 31% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 31% |
| Naji Marshall: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 30% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 29% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 | 29% |
| O/U 242.5 | 28% |
| Spread -20.5 | 28% |
| Stephon Castle: Points O/U 17.5 | 28% |
| Devin Vassell: Points O/U 11.5 | 28% |
| Dylan Harper: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 28% |
| Devin Vassell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 28% |
| Kyrie Irving: Points O/U 21.5 | 28% |
| Kyrie Irving: Points O/U 34.5 | 28% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 28% |
| Mavericks O/U 116.5 | 28% |
| Spurs O/U 129.5 | 28% |
| Kyrie Irving: Points O/U 20.5 | 28% |
| P.J. Washington: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 28% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 28.5 | 27% |
| Dylan Harper: Points O/U 17.5 | 27% |
| De'Aaron Fox: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 27% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 27% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 27% |
| Spurs 1H O/U 66.5 | 27% |
| Stephon Castle: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 26% |
| Kyrie Irving: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 26% |
| P.J. Washington: Points O/U 14.5 | 26% |
| Max Christie: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 26% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 25% |
| Spread -22.5 | 24% |
| Kyrie Irving: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 24% |
| Mavericks O/U 118.5 | 24% |
| P.J. Washington: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 24% |
| O/U 245.5 | 22% |
| Stephon Castle: Points O/U 19.5 | 22% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 29.5 | 22% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 3.5 | 22% |
| Dylan Harper: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 22% |
| Spurs O/U 131.5 | 22% |
| Devin Vassell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 21% |
| Naji Marshall: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 21% |
| 1H O/U 124.5 | 21% |
| Dylan Harper: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 20% |
| 1H O/U 126.5 | 20% |
| Daniel Gafford: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 20% |
| Spread -24.5 | 19% |
| Dylan Harper: Points O/U 19.5 | 19% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 19% |
| Devin Vassell: Points O/U 14.5 | 18% |
| Devin Vassell: Assists O/U 3.5 | 18% |
| Victor Wembanyama: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 18% |
| Kyrie Irving: Points O/U 24.5 | 18% |
| Naji Marshall: Points O/U 19.5 | 18% |
| Naji Marshall: Assists O/U 5.5 | 18% |
| Max Christie: Points O/U 14.5 | 18% |
| 1H O/U 128.5 | 17% |
| 1H O/U 130.5 | 17% |
| Spurs O/U 133.5 | 17% |
| Spread -26.5 | 16% |
| Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 7.5 | 16% |
| Dylan Harper: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 16% |
| Mavericks O/U 120.5 | 16% |
| P.J. Washington: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 16% |
| Dylan Harper: Assists O/U 5.5 | 15% |
| 1H O/U 132.5 | 15% |
| P.J. Washington: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 15% |
| Spread -2.5 | 14% |
| Spread -1.5 | 14% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 19.5 | 14% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 14% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 7.5 | 14% |
| De'Aaron Fox: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 14% |
| Stephon Castle: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 14% |
| Kyrie Irving: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 14% |
| 1H O/U 134.5 | 14% |
| Max Christie: Assists O/U 3.5 | 14% |
| Spread -28.5 | 13% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 34.5 | 13% |
| Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 13% |
| Kyrie Irving: Assists O/U 5.5 | 13% |
| P.J. Washington: Points O/U 19.5 | 13% |
| Spread -3.5 | 12% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 39.5 | 12% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 12% |
| Devin Vassell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 12% |
| Daniel Gafford: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 12% |
| Max Christie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 12% |
| Stephon Castle: Points O/U 29.5 | 11% |
| Devin Vassell: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 11% |
| Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 11% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 9.5 | 11% |
| Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 9.5 | 11% |
| Kyrie Irving: Points O/U 29.5 | 11% |
| Kyrie Irving: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 11% |
| Naji Marshall: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 11% |
| Naji Marshall: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 11% |
| Spread -30.5 | 10% |
| Dylan Harper: Points O/U 24.5 | 10% |
| Dylan Harper: Points O/U 29.5 | 10% |
| Stephon Castle: Points O/U 24.5 | 10% |
| Dylan Harper: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 10% |
| Devin Vassell: Points O/U 24.5 | 10% |
| Victor Wembanyama: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 10% |
| Naji Marshall: Points O/U 24.5 | 10% |
| Max Christie: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 10% |
| P.J. Washington: Assists O/U 3.5 | 10% |
| Spread -5.5 | 9% |
| Kyrie Irving: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 9% |
| Daniel Gafford: Points O/U 14.5 | 9% |
| Spread -7.5 | 8% |
| Spread -32.5 | 8% |
| Devin Vassell: Points O/U 19.5 | 8% |
| Dylan Harper: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 8% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 5.5 | 8% |
| De'Aaron Fox: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 8% |
| Stephon Castle: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 8% |
| Naji Marshall: Assists O/U 7.5 | 8% |
| Max Christie: Points O/U 19.5 | 8% |
| Max Christie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 8% |
| P.J. Washington: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 8% |
| Spread -34.5 | 7% |
| Devin Vassell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 7% |
| Victor Wembanyama: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 7% |
| P.J. Washington: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 7% |
| Dylan Harper: Assists O/U 7.5 | 6% |
| De'Aaron Fox: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 6% |
| Dylan Harper: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 6% |
| Stephon Castle: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 6% |
| Naji Marshall: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 6% |
| P.J. Washington: Points O/U 24.5 | 6% |
| Kyrie Irving: Assists O/U 7.5 | 6% |
| P.J. Washington: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 6% |
| Spread -11.5 | 5% |
| Spread -13.5 | 5% |
| Spread -9.5 | 5% |
| Spread -36.5 | 5% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 24.5 | 5% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 5% |
| Devin Vassell: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 5% |
| Devin Vassell: Assists O/U 5.5 | 5% |
| Kyrie Irving: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 5% |
| Max Christie: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 5% |
| Max Christie: Assists O/U 5.5 | 5% |
| P.J. Washington: Assists O/U 5.5 | 5% |
| Spread -19.5 | 3% |
| Spread -15.5 | 3% |
| Spread -17.5 | 2% |
Market context
Market consensus: 95% chance of spurs vs. mavericks. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 24 at 8:00PM ET: If the Spurs win, the market will resolve to "Spurs". If the Mavericks win, the market will resolve to "Mavericks".…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $377K.
Methodology
This page tracks Spurs vs. Mavericks across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Election Predictions UK provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.
Resolution & payout
Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- How accurate are political prediction markets?
- Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.
- Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?
- Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.
- How fast do political markets react to news?
- High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.
- Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?
- Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.
- Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?
- Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.
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