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Raptors vs. Bucks

"Raptors vs. Bucks" across the four most-traded political prediction venues — live data, regulatory notes, every CTA to Election Predictions UK.

Collin Murray-Boyles: Points O/U 4.5 100% Ja'Kobe Walter: Points O/U 4.5 100% Brayden Burries: Rebounds O/U 4.5 100% Kyle Kuzma: Points O/U 4.5 100% Volume: $1.9M Liquidity: $999K Closes: 7 Nov 2026
Open live market →
Raptors vs. Bucks

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Election Predictions UK) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
100% 0% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
100% 0% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Trade this market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
— — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
— — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Trade this market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
— — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Collin Murray-Boyles: Points O/U 4.5100%
Ja'Kobe Walter: Points O/U 4.5100%
Brayden Burries: Rebounds O/U 4.5100%
Kyle Kuzma: Points O/U 4.5100%
Ryan Rollins: Points O/U 4.5100%
Kyle Kuzma: Rebounds O/U 1.5100%
Brayden Burries: Points O/U 4.5100%
Brayden Burries: Points O/U 9.5100%
Brayden Burries: Rebounds O/U 1.5100%
Brayden Burries: Rebounds O/U 3.5100%
Brayden Burries: Rebounds O/U 5.5100%
Jakob Poeltl: Rebounds O/U 1.5100%
Jamal Shead: Assists O/U 1.5100%
Jamal Shead: Assists O/U 3.5100%
1Q Spread -1.5100%
1Q O/U 50.5100%
1Q O/U 48.5100%
1Q O/U 46.5100%
1Q O/U 44.5100%
Kel'el Ware: Blocks O/U 0.5100%
Jamal Shead: Steals O/U 0.5100%
Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Rebounds O/U 1.593%
1H O/U 98.583%
O/U 204.581%
Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Points O/U 9.580%
Ryan Rollins: Points O/U 9.580%
O/U 206.579%
Kyle Kuzma: Rebounds O/U 3.579%
Brayden Burries: Rebounds O/U 7.579%
Jamal Shead: Assists O/U 7.579%
Jamal Shead: Assists O/U 9.579%
Collin Murray-Boyles: Points O/U 9.578%
Kyle Kuzma: Points O/U 9.575%
1H O/U 102.574%
1H O/U 100.573%
O/U 202.571%
1H Spread -2.571%
O/U 208.569%
Collin Murray-Boyles: Rebounds O/U 3.569%
Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Points O/U 14.567%
O/U 212.566%
O/U 210.566%
Jakob Poeltl: Rebounds O/U 5.566%
O/U 220.565%
O/U 214.565%
O/U 216.563%
O/U 218.562%
1H Spread -4.561%
1H Spread -6.557%
Spread -2.556%
RJ Barrett: Rebounds O/U 3.556%
1H O/U 106.555%
1H O/U 104.555%
Collin Murray-Boyles: Points O/U 14.554%
Brayden Burries: Points O/U 14.553%
1Q O/U 52.553%
1Q Spread -3.553%
Spread -4.552%
1H Spread -10.552%
O/U 222.551%
Kyle Kuzma: Assists O/U 1.551%
Jaime Jaquez Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.551%
Jakob Poeltl: Points O/U 9.551%
3Q O/U 56.551%
1H O/U 96.551%
Kel'el Ware: Rebounds O/U 1.551%
Kyle Kuzma: Steals O/U 0.551%
Kel'el Ware: Blocks O/U 1.551%
Jamal Shead: Steals O/U 1.551%
RJ Barrett: Points O/U 22.550%
Ja'Kobe Walter: Points O/U 11.550%
Collin Murray-Boyles: Points O/U 11.550%
Immanuel Quickley: Points O/U 9.550%
Scottie Barnes: Rebounds O/U 8.550%
Collin Murray-Boyles: Rebounds O/U 5.550%
Immanuel Quickley: Points O/U 29.550%
Ja'Kobe Walter: Rebounds O/U 3.550%
Ja'Kobe Walter: Points O/U 9.550%
Scottie Barnes: Assists O/U 5.550%
RJ Barrett: Assists O/U 4.550%
Ja'Kobe Walter: Points O/U 19.550%
RJ Barrett: Points O/U 9.550%
Ja'Kobe Walter: Assists O/U 1.550%
RJ Barrett: Points O/U 14.550%
RJ Barrett: Points O/U 19.550%
RJ Barrett: Points O/U 29.550%
RJ Barrett: Points O/U 39.550%
Collin Murray-Boyles: Rebounds O/U 1.550%
Collin Murray-Boyles: Rebounds O/U 7.550%
Collin Murray-Boyles: Rebounds O/U 9.550%
Immanuel Quickley: Rebounds O/U 1.550%
Immanuel Quickley: Rebounds O/U 5.550%
Ja'Kobe Walter: Rebounds O/U 1.550%
RJ Barrett: Rebounds O/U 1.550%
RJ Barrett: Rebounds O/U 9.550%
Collin Murray-Boyles: Assists O/U 3.550%
Immanuel Quickley: Assists O/U 1.550%
Immanuel Quickley: Assists O/U 3.550%
Immanuel Quickley: Assists O/U 5.550%
Immanuel Quickley: Assists O/U 7.550%
Immanuel Quickley: Assists O/U 9.550%
Immanuel Quickley: Assists O/U 11.550%
Ja'Kobe Walter: Assists O/U 3.550%
RJ Barrett: Assists O/U 1.550%
RJ Barrett: Assists O/U 9.550%
Brayden Burries: Points O/U 11.550%
Brayden Burries: Assists O/U 2.550%
Kyle Kuzma: Points O/U 19.550%
Myles Turner: Points O/U 4.550%
Myles Turner: Points O/U 14.550%
Myles Turner: Points O/U 19.550%
Tyler Herro: Points O/U 9.550%
Tyler Herro: Points O/U 24.550%
Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Rebounds O/U 3.550%
Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Rebounds O/U 7.550%
Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Rebounds O/U 9.550%
Kyle Kuzma: Rebounds O/U 5.550%
Kyle Kuzma: Rebounds O/U 7.550%
Kyle Kuzma: Rebounds O/U 9.550%
Myles Turner: Rebounds O/U 1.550%
Myles Turner: Rebounds O/U 3.550%
Myles Turner: Rebounds O/U 7.550%
Myles Turner: Rebounds O/U 9.550%
Ryan Rollins: Rebounds O/U 1.550%
Ryan Rollins: Rebounds O/U 3.550%
Ryan Rollins: Rebounds O/U 5.550%
Tyler Herro: Rebounds O/U 1.550%
Tyler Herro: Rebounds O/U 3.550%
Tyler Herro: Rebounds O/U 5.550%
Tyler Herro: Rebounds O/U 9.550%
Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Assists O/U 1.550%
Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Assists O/U 5.550%
Kyle Kuzma: Assists O/U 3.550%
Kyle Kuzma: Assists O/U 5.550%
Myles Turner: Assists O/U 1.550%
Myles Turner: Assists O/U 3.550%
Ryan Rollins: Assists O/U 1.550%
Ryan Rollins: Assists O/U 3.550%
Ryan Rollins: Assists O/U 5.550%
Tyler Herro: Assists O/U 1.550%
Ryan Rollins: Assists O/U 9.550%
Tyler Herro: Assists O/U 5.550%
Immanuel Quickley: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.550%
Immanuel Quickley: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.550%
Immanuel Quickley: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.550%
Immanuel Quickley: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.550%
Immanuel Quickley: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.550%
Ja'Kobe Walter: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.550%
Ja'Kobe Walter: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.550%
Ja'Kobe Walter: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.550%
Ja'Kobe Walter: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.550%
Ja'Kobe Walter: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.550%
Jaime Jaquez Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.550%
Jaime Jaquez Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.550%
Kyle Kuzma: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.550%
Kyle Kuzma: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.550%
Kyle Kuzma: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.550%
Myles Turner: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.550%
Myles Turner: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.550%
Myles Turner: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.550%
RJ Barrett: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.550%
RJ Barrett: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.550%
RJ Barrett: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.550%
Ryan Rollins: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.550%
Ryan Rollins: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.550%
Ryan Rollins: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.550%
Tyler Herro: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.550%
Tyler Herro: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.550%
Tyler Herro: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.550%
Tyler Herro: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.550%
Tyler Herro: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.550%
Brayden Burries: Rebounds O/U 9.550%
Brayden Burries: Assists O/U 1.550%
Brayden Burries: Assists O/U 3.550%
Brayden Burries: Assists O/U 5.550%
Brayden Burries: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.550%
Brayden Burries: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.550%
Brayden Burries: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.550%
Immanuel Quickley: Steals O/U 0.550%
Immanuel Quickley: Steals O/U 1.550%
Immanuel Quickley: Steals O/U 2.550%
Ja'Kobe Walter: Steals O/U 0.550%
Ja'Kobe Walter: Steals O/U 1.550%
Ja'Kobe Walter: Steals O/U 2.550%
Collin Murray-Boyles: Blocks O/U 0.550%
Collin Murray-Boyles: Blocks O/U 1.550%
Collin Murray-Boyles: Blocks O/U 2.550%
Myles Turner: Blocks O/U 1.550%
Myles Turner: Blocks O/U 2.550%
Myles Turner: Blocks O/U 3.550%
Myles Turner: Blocks O/U 4.550%
Scottie Barnes: Rebounds O/U 7.550%
Jakob Poeltl: Points O/U 4.550%
Jamal Shead: Points O/U 4.550%
Jakob Poeltl: Rebounds O/U 3.550%
Jakob Poeltl: Rebounds O/U 9.550%
Ryan Rollins: Rebounds O/U 7.550%
Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Assists O/U 7.550%
Jamal Shead: Assists O/U 5.550%
Ryan Rollins: Assists O/U 7.550%
Tyler Herro: Assists O/U 7.550%
Collin Murray-Boyles: Assists O/U 5.550%
RJ Barrett: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.550%
2Q O/U 55.550%
3Q O/U 60.550%
4Q O/U 57.550%
Bucks O/U 112.550%
Raptors O/U 119.550%
Bucks 1H O/U 54.550%
Raptors 1H O/U 57.550%
Odd/Even Score50%
Overtime?50%
2Q O/U 53.550%
3Q O/U 58.550%
4Q O/U 55.550%
Bucks O/U 110.550%
Raptors O/U 117.550%
Bucks 1H O/U 52.550%
Raptors 1H O/U 55.550%
2Q Spread -0.550%
2Q O/U 57.550%
3Q Spread -0.550%
3Q O/U 62.550%
4Q Spread -0.550%
4Q O/U 59.550%
Brayden Burries: Points O/U 10.550%
Bucks O/U 114.550%
Raptors O/U 121.550%
Bucks 1H O/U 56.550%
Raptors 1H O/U 59.550%
2Q O/U 51.550%
Bucks O/U 108.550%
Raptors O/U 115.550%
Bucks 1H O/U 50.550%
Raptors 1H O/U 53.550%
1H Spread -0.550%
2Q O/U 59.550%
3Q O/U 64.550%
Bucks O/U 116.550%
Raptors O/U 123.550%
Bucks 1H O/U 58.550%
Raptors 1H O/U 61.550%
3Q O/U 54.550%
Bucks O/U 106.550%
Raptors O/U 113.550%
3Q Spread -4.550%
3Q O/U 66.550%
Bucks O/U 118.550%
Raptors O/U 125.550%
Bucks O/U 104.550%
Raptors O/U 111.550%
Bucks O/U 120.550%
Raptors O/U 127.550%
Bucks O/U 102.550%
Raptors O/U 109.550%
Ja'Kobe Walter: Assists O/U 5.550%
Bucks O/U 122.550%
Raptors O/U 129.550%
Bucks O/U 100.550%
Raptors O/U 107.550%
Bucks O/U 124.550%
Raptors O/U 131.550%
Immanuel Quickley: Rebounds O/U 7.550%
Jaime Jaquez Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.550%
RJ Barrett: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.550%
Ryan Rollins: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.550%
1H Spread -2.550%
1H O/U 111.550%
2Q Spread -0.550%
2Q O/U 54.550%
4Q Spread -0.550%
Bucks O/U 113.550%
Raptors 1H O/U 56.550%
Ja'Kobe Walter: Rebounds O/U 9.550%
RJ Barrett: Points O/U 25.550%
RJ Barrett: Rebounds O/U 6.550%
Collin Murray-Boyles: Rebounds O/U 6.550%
Ja'Kobe Walter: Rebounds O/U 4.550%
Collin Murray-Boyles: Assists O/U 2.550%
Ja'Kobe Walter: Assists O/U 2.550%
Ja'Kobe Walter: Rebounds O/U 7.550%
Jamal Shead: Rebounds O/U 1.550%
Jamal Shead: Rebounds O/U 3.550%
Jamal Shead: Rebounds O/U 5.550%
Jamal Shead: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.550%
Jamal Shead: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.550%
Jamal Shead: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.550%
Jakob Poeltl: Points O/U 19.550%
Bucks 2H O/U 56.550%
Raptors 2H O/U 58.550%
Collin Murray-Boyles: Points O/U 24.550%
Bucks 2H O/U 54.550%
Raptors 2H O/U 56.550%
Bucks 2H O/U 58.550%
Raptors 2H O/U 60.550%
Bucks 2H O/U 52.550%
Raptors 2H O/U 54.550%
Bucks 2H O/U 60.550%
Raptors 2H O/U 62.550%
Myles Turner: Blocks O/U 0.550%
3Q Spread -0.550%
3Q O/U 59.550%
Raptors O/U 116.550%
RJ Barrett: Points O/U 26.550%
AJ Green: Points O/U 4.550%
AJ Green: Points O/U 9.550%
AJ Green: Points O/U 14.550%
Kasparas Jakucionis: Points O/U 4.550%
Kasparas Jakucionis: Points O/U 9.550%
Kasparas Jakucionis: Points O/U 14.550%
Kel'el Ware: Points O/U 4.550%
Kel'el Ware: Points O/U 9.550%
Kel'el Ware: Points O/U 14.550%
AJ Green: Rebounds O/U 1.550%
AJ Green: Rebounds O/U 3.550%
Collin Murray-Boyles: Rebounds O/U 15.550%
Collin Murray-Boyles: Rebounds O/U 17.550%
Kasparas Jakucionis: Rebounds O/U 1.550%
Kasparas Jakucionis: Rebounds O/U 3.550%
Kasparas Jakucionis: Rebounds O/U 5.550%
Kel'el Ware: Rebounds O/U 3.550%
Kel'el Ware: Rebounds O/U 5.550%
Kel'el Ware: Rebounds O/U 7.550%
Kel'el Ware: Rebounds O/U 9.550%
Kel'el Ware: Rebounds O/U 11.550%
AJ Green: Assists O/U 3.550%
Jakob Poeltl: Assists O/U 3.550%
Jamal Shead: Assists O/U 15.550%
Kasparas Jakucionis: Assists O/U 1.550%
Kasparas Jakucionis: Assists O/U 5.550%
Kel'el Ware: Assists O/U 1.550%
Kel'el Ware: Assists O/U 3.550%
AJ Green: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.550%
AJ Green: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.550%
AJ Green: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.550%
Collin Murray-Boyles: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.550%
Collin Murray-Boyles: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.550%
Kel'el Ware: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.550%
Kel'el Ware: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.550%
Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Steals O/U 0.550%
Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Steals O/U 1.550%
Kyle Kuzma: Steals O/U 1.550%
Myles Turner: Steals O/U 0.550%
Myles Turner: Steals O/U 1.550%
Ryan Rollins: Steals O/U 0.550%
Ryan Rollins: Steals O/U 1.550%
Tyler Herro: Steals O/U 0.550%
Tyler Herro: Steals O/U 1.550%
Raptors 2H O/U 57.550%
Jamal Shead: Points O/U 19.550%
Kel'el Ware: Points O/U 19.550%
AJ Green: Rebounds O/U 5.550%
Jakob Poeltl: Rebounds O/U 11.550%
Jamal Shead: Assists O/U 11.550%
AJ Green: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.550%
Brayden Burries: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.550%
Jamal Shead: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.550%
Collin Murray-Boyles: Steals O/U 0.550%
Collin Murray-Boyles: Steals O/U 1.550%
Collin Murray-Boyles: Steals O/U 2.550%
Jamal Shead: Steals O/U 2.550%
RJ Barrett: Steals O/U 0.550%
RJ Barrett: Steals O/U 1.550%
Tyler Herro: Points O/U 14.549%
Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Assists O/U 3.549%
Tyler Herro: Assists O/U 3.549%
4Q Spread -1.549%
1H O/U 122.549%
3Q Spread -1.548%
Immanuel Quickley: Points O/U 18.547%
1Q O/U 56.547%
1Q O/U 54.547%
O/U 224.546%
1H O/U 126.546%
AJ Green: Assists O/U 1.546%
Jakob Poeltl: Assists O/U 1.546%
Immanuel Quickley: Points O/U 19.544%
Immanuel Quickley: Rebounds O/U 3.544%
Immanuel Quickley: Assists O/U 6.544%
1H O/U 124.544%
Immanuel Quickley: Points O/U 24.543%
Collin Murray-Boyles: Assists O/U 1.543%
Tyler Herro: Rebounds O/U 7.543%
4Q Spread -3.543%
Immanuel Quickley: Points O/U 14.542%
Ryan Rollins: Points O/U 14.542%
O/U 226.541%
RJ Barrett: Points O/U 24.541%
3Q Spread -3.541%
1H O/U 108.541%
Ryan Rollins: Points O/U 19.540%
Tyler Herro: Points O/U 19.540%
Team to Score First40%
Kasparas Jakucionis: Assists O/U 3.540%
Raptors vs. Bucks39%
Ja'Kobe Walter: Points O/U 14.539%
2Q Spread -2.539%
1H Spread -8.539%
O/U 227.539%
RJ Barrett: Rebounds O/U 5.538%
Myles Turner: Rebounds O/U 5.538%
O/U 228.536%
Spread -1.535%
Spread -8.535%
Spread -35.535%
Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Rebounds O/U 5.535%
O/U 244.534%
O/U 246.534%
Spread -6.534%
Ja'Kobe Walter: Rebounds O/U 5.534%
Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Points O/U 19.534%
Spread -2.533%
Kyle Kuzma: Points O/U 14.533%
Jakob Poeltl: Rebounds O/U 7.533%
1H O/U 110.533%
4Q Spread -5.533%
3Q Spread -2.533%
O/U 229.533%
Myles Turner: Points O/U 9.532%
2Q Spread -1.532%
O/U 230.531%
O/U 248.531%
RJ Barrett: Assists O/U 3.531%
O/U 254.530%
O/U 258.530%
O/U 250.529%
4Q Spread -2.529%
Spread -4.528%
Spread -3.528%
O/U 256.528%
O/U 231.528%
Jamal Shead: Points O/U 9.528%
3Q Spread -5.528%
O/U 232.527%
Spread -25.527%
Spread -10.527%
2Q Spread -3.527%
Collin Murray-Boyles: Points O/U 19.526%
O/U 252.524%
Brayden Burries: Points O/U 19.524%
1H Spread -12.523%
Spread -5.522%
Spread -12.522%
1H O/U 112.522%
3Q Spread -7.522%
O/U 234.521%
1H Moneyline21%
1H O/U 120.521%
Spread -20.520%
Spread -6.519%
O/U 236.519%
Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Points O/U 24.519%
2Q Spread -5.519%
1H O/U 114.518%
RJ Barrett: Assists O/U 7.517%
Jakob Poeltl: Points O/U 14.517%
1H O/U 118.517%
1H O/U 128.517%
RJ Barrett: Rebounds O/U 7.516%
RJ Barrett: Assists O/U 5.516%
1H Spread -14.516%
O/U 238.515%
Tyler Herro: Points O/U 29.515%
Spread -7.514%
Spread -14.514%
1H O/U 116.513%
Spread -8.512%
O/U 240.512%
Jamal Shead: Points O/U 14.512%
1H Spread -1.512%
Ja'Kobe Walter: Points O/U 24.512%
O/U 242.511%
Spread -16.511%
Spread -18.511%
Spread -9.510%
RJ Barrett: Points O/U 34.510%
1H Spread -5.510%
Spread -10.59%
Spread -13.59%
1H Spread -3.58%
Spread -11.57%
Spread -12.57%
Spread -17.57%
Spread -19.57%
1H Spread -9.57%
1H Spread -11.57%
1H Spread -13.57%
1H Spread -17.57%
Spread -21.56%
Spread -23.56%
1H Spread -15.56%
Spread -15.55%
1H Spread -19.55%
Spread -27.54%
1H Spread -21.54%
Spread -29.53%
Spread -31.53%
Spread -33.53%
1H Spread -7.53%
Scottie Barnes: Points O/U 22.51%
Race to 301%
1Q O/U 60.51%
1Q Spread -2.50%
Race to 100%
Race to 200%
1Q Spread -4.50%
1Q Spread -0.50%
1Q O/U 58.50%
1Q Spread -6.50%
1Q Spread -8.50%
1Q O/U 62.50%
1Q O/U 64.50%
1Q O/U 66.50%
1Q O/U 68.50%
1Q Spread -1.50%
1Q O/U 55.50%

Market context

Based on real-money crowd forecasting, raptors vs. bucks stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. In the upcoming NBA game between Raptors and Bucks, originally scheduled for Friday, November 6, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET (as of creation of the first market related to the event): If th…

Live Data & Statistics

The Polymarket order book prices Collin Murray-Boyles: Points O/U 4.5 at 100% for "Raptors vs. Bucks".

Collin Murray-Boyles: Points O/U 4.5 100% Other 0%

Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $1.9M.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Raptors vs. Bucks plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How accurate are political prediction markets?
Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.
What resolution source is used for elections?
Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.
Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?
Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.
Are political prediction markets legal in my country?
It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.
Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?
Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.
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