Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Election Predictions UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
94% | 6% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
94% | 6% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 24.5 | 94% |
| Eagles O/U 10.5 | 91% |
| O/U 26.5 | 90% |
| O/U 27.5 | 89% |
| O/U 28.5 | 88% |
| O/U 29.5 | 86% |
| Eagles O/U 13.5 | 85% |
| O/U 30.5 | 83% |
| O/U 31.5 | 82% |
| Bears O/U 10.5 | 81% |
| O/U 32.5 | 79% |
| Eagles 1H O/U 6.5 | 78% |
| Bears O/U 12.5 | 77% |
| O/U 33.5 | 76% |
| Eagles O/U 16.5 | 76% |
| O/U 34.5 | 72% |
| Bears O/U 13.5 | 72% |
| O/U 35.5 | 71% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 71% |
| O/U 36.5 | 69% |
| Eagles O/U 19.5 | 65% |
| Eagles vs. Bears | 64% |
| O/U 37.5 | 64% |
| O/U 38.5 | 61% |
| 1H Moneyline | 60% |
| O/U 39.5 | 59% |
| Spread -1.5 | 59% |
| Eagles O/U 20.5 | 59% |
| Bears 1H O/U 6.5 | 58% |
| Spread -2.5 | 57% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 57% |
| O/U 40.5 | 55% |
| O/U 41.5 | 52% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 52% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 51% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| Eagles O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Eagles by 25+ | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Eagles by 19-24 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Eagles by 13-18 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Eagles by 7-12 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Eagles by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bears by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bears by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bears by 14-20 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bears by 21+ | 50% |
| Safety? | 50% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 50% |
| Eagles Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Bears Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Eagles vs. Bears: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Bears O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Eagles 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Eagles 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Eagles 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Bears 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Bears 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Bears 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Eagles 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Eagles 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Eagles 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Eagles 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Eagles 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Eagles 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Eagles 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Eagles 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Eagles Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Bears Total Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Bears Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 49% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 49% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 49% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 49% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 49% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 49% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 49% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 49% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 49% |
| O/U 42.5 | 49% |
| Bears 1H O/U 19.5 | 49% |
| Bears 1H O/U 20.5 | 49% |
| Spread -3.5 | 48% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 48% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 48% |
| Eagles O/U 23.5 | 47% |
| O/U 43.5 | 45% |
| Spread -4.5 | 45% |
| Bears O/U 20.5 | 44% |
| Eagles 1H O/U 13.5 | 44% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 43% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 43% |
| O/U 44.5 | 42% |
| Spread -5.5 | 42% |
| Spread -6.5 | 41% |
| Eagles 1H O/U 16.5 | 41% |
| O/U 45.5 | 39% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 38% |
| O/U 46.5 | 37% |
| Spread -0.5 | 36% |
| Eagles O/U 26.5 | 36% |
| Spread -1.5 | 35% |
| Spread -7.5 | 35% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 35% |
| Bears O/U 16.5 | 35% |
| Eagles 1H O/U 19.5 | 35% |
| Spread -2.5 | 33% |
| O/U 47.5 | 33% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 33% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 33% |
| Eagles 1H O/U 20.5 | 32% |
| O/U 48.5 | 31% |
| Spread -8.5 | 31% |
| Spread -9.5 | 31% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 31% |
| Eagles O/U 27.5 | 31% |
| Bears O/U 23.5 | 31% |
| O/U 49.5 | 30% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 30% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 30% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 28% |
| Bears 1H O/U 13.5 | 28% |
| Spread -10.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 26% |
| Spread -3.5 | 25% |
| O/U 50.5 | 25% |
| Spread -4.5 | 24% |
| O/U 51.5 | 23% |
| Spread -13.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 23% |
| Spread -5.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 22% |
| Eagles O/U 30.5 | 22% |
| O/U 52.5 | 21% |
| Bears O/U 26.5 | 21% |
| Spread -14.5 | 20% |
| Spread -6.5 | 20% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 20% |
| O/U 53.5 | 19% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 19% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 19% |
| Spread -16.5 | 18% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 18% |
| O/U 54.5 | 17% |
| O/U 55.5 | 16% |
| Spread -7.5 | 16% |
| Bears O/U 27.5 | 16% |
| Bears 1H O/U 16.5 | 16% |
| Spread -17.5 | 15% |
| Spread -8.5 | 14% |
| Spread -9.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| O/U 56.5 | 14% |
| O/U 57.5 | 13% |
| Spread -19.5 | 11% |
| Spread -20.5 | 11% |
| Spread -10.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 11% |
| O/U 58.5 | 11% |
| Bears O/U 30.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 10% |
| Eagles O/U 34.5 | 10% |
| O/U 59.5 | 9% |
| Spread -13.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 8% |
| O/U 60.5 | 8% |
| O/U 61.5 | 7% |
| Spread -21.5 | 7% |
| O/U 63.5 | 6% |
| O/U 67.5 | 6% |
| Spread -14.5 | 6% |
| Spread -16.5 | 6% |
| Spread -17.5 | 6% |
| Bears O/U 34.5 | 6% |
| Spread -21.5 | 5% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 5% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 5% |
| O/U 62.5 | 5% |
| O/U 64.5 | 5% |
| O/U 65.5 | 4% |
| Spread -19.5 | 4% |
| Spread -20.5 | 4% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 4% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 3% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, eagles vs. bears stands at 94% likelihood according to current market consensus. In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 28 at 8:15PM ET: If Eagles wins, the market will resolve to "Eagles". If Bears wins, the market will resolve to "Bears". If the ga…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $324K.
Methodology
Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Eagles vs. Bears plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.
Resolution & payout
Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- What resolution source is used for elections?
- Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.
- Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?
- Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.
- How fast do political markets react to news?
- High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.
- Are political prediction markets legal in my country?
- It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.
- Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?
- Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.
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