Wild vs. Avalanche

Platform comparison

Market context

The Minnesota Wild face the Colorado Avalanche in an NHL playoff match scheduled for 13 May at 8:00PM ET, with the settlement window closing the following day. The market currently implies an 86% probability of a Wild victory, reflecting substantial confidence in Minnesota's chances despite the Avalanche being a formidable opponent in recent seasons.

Historical matchups between these teams provide context for evaluating the current odds. Over the past five seasons, the Wild and Avalanche have split regular-season encounters fairly evenly, though Colorado has generally finished with stronger playoff seeding. The 86% implied probability suggests traders are pricing in either significant roster advantages for Minnesota, recent form disparities, or specific playoff positioning dynamics that favour the Wild considerably. Comparable playoff scenarios where underdogs have been priced at 14% or lower success rates typically reflect either dominant recent performance by the favoured team or substantial injury concerns affecting the challenger.

Traders should monitor roster updates and injury reports through to puck drop, particularly regarding key players on either side. The settlement mechanism accounts for overtime and shootouts, with shootout victories credited as one additional goal for resolution purposes. Recent team performance metrics, goaltender form, and any last-minute lineup changes announced by either franchise will be critical catalysts. The single-day settlement window following the match means the result will be determined definitively on 14 May, with no ambiguity regarding postponement or cancellation scenarios unless the game fails to be rescheduled.

Methodology

This page tracks Wild vs. Avalanche across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like PolyGram provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

Resolution source: This market settles from the official publication at https://www.nhl.com/scores. A proposer submits the result to the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon, the two-hour challenge window opens, and the smart contract pays out in USDC.

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.