How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.

FC Vaduz vs. FC St. Gallen 1879 | Election Predictions 2026

Name: FC Vaduz vs. FC St. Gallen 1879
Start: 2026-07-28T16:02:48.000Z
End: 2026-08-02T12:00:00.000Z

Platform comparison

Platform	YES odds	NO odds	Fee	KYC	Settlement
Polymarket (via Election Predictions UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker)	100%	0%	0% (USDC on-chain)	No-KYC up to $1,500	USDC, auto via UMA oracle	Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com	100%	0%	0%	Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU	USDC, on-chain	Trade this market →
Kalshi kalshi.com	—	—	Up to 7% per trade	US-only, KYC required	USD	Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange betfair.com	—	—	2-5% commission	Full KYC from first trade	GBP / EUR	Trade this market →
Manifold Markets manifold.markets	—	—	Play-money (mana)	None — play-money	Mana (no cash-out)	Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

Outcome	Probability
FC St. Gallen 1879	100%
FC Vaduz	0%
Draw	0%

Market context

Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to fc vaduz vs. fc st. gallen 1879. This event is for the upcoming Switzerland Super League game, scheduled for Sunday, August 2, 2026 between FC Vaduz and FC St. Gallen 1879.

Live Data & Statistics

The Polymarket order book prices FC St. Gallen 1879 at 100% for "FC Vaduz vs. FC St. Gallen 1879".

FC St. Gallen 1879 100% Other 0%

Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $131K.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for FC Vaduz vs. FC St. Gallen 1879 plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?: Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.
What resolution source is used for elections?: Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.
Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?: Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.
Are political prediction markets legal in my country?: It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.
Which political events have the biggest volume?: US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.

David ParkSports Data Analystand

Oliver HughesBlockchain & Crypto Reporter

Trade FC Vaduz vs. FC St. Gallen 1879 on Election Predictions UK

Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.

Open live market →

FC Vaduz vs. FC St. Gallen 1879

Platform comparison

Outcome probabilities

Market context

Live Data & Statistics

Methodology

Resolution & payout

FAQ

Trade FC Vaduz vs. FC St. Gallen 1879 on Election Predictions UK

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