Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Election Predictions UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
62% | 38% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
62% | 38% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Team Liquid (-3.5) vs TYLOO (+3.5) | 62% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Liquid (-2.5) vs TYLOO (+2.5) | 57% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Liquid (-2.5) vs TYLOO (+2.5) | 56% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 55% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 54% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 54% |
| Map Handicap: TL (-1.5) vs TYLOO (+1.5) | 52% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 52% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Liquid (-3.5) vs TYLOO (+3.5) | 49% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Liquid (-3.5) vs TYLOO (+3.5) | 49% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 49% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 47% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 46% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 45% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 43% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 41% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 41% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Team Liquid (-2.5) vs TYLOO (+2.5) | 39% |
| Map 1 Winner | 29% |
| Map 2 Winner | 29% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 27% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 26% |
| Match Winner | 21% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, valorant: tyloo vs team liquid (bo3) - vct champions group c stands at 62% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the Valorant Elimination match between TYLOO and Team Liquid in the VCT Champions Group C, initially scheduled for October 1, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET. This market…
Methodology
Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Valorant: TYLOO vs Team Liquid (BO3) - VCT Champions Group C plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.
Resolution & payout
Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- How accurate are political prediction markets?
- Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.
- What resolution source is used for elections?
- Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.
- Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?
- Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.
- Are political prediction markets legal in my country?
- It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.
- Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?
- Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.
Trade Valorant: TYLOO vs Team Liquid (BO3) - VCT Champions… on Election Predictions UK
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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