Bunschoten: Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Filippo Romano

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is a men’s singles tennis match at the Bunschoten tournament between Gilles Arnaud Bailly and Filippo Romano, originally set for 4:00 AM ET on 13 July 2026. The market currently implies a 0 % chance that Bailly advances, suggesting the crowd views Romano as the overwhelming favourite or the match as highly unlikely to proceed under normal conditions.

Historically, 0 % implied probabilities in tennis prediction markets often signal either a confirmed withdrawal, a severe injury, or a scheduling error rather than a genuine skill gap; comparable cases from ATP Challenger events show that such extremes usually resolve to the 50–50 default when matches are cancelled or delayed beyond the seven-day window, as seen in the 2024 Brest Challenger when a top-100 player withdrew pre-tournament and all related markets settled neutrally.

Traders should monitor the official Bunschoten tournament schedule on the ATP website for any updates on player participation, as well as recent injury reports from the ITF or ATP injury tracker, since a withdrawal by either player would trigger the 50–50 settlement clause. No recent campaign-finance disclosures or political declarations apply here, as this is a sporting event; the key catalyst is the tournament’s official confirmation of whether the match will be played before the 20 July 2026 settlement deadline.

Methodology

This page tracks Bunschoten: Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Filippo Romano across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Election Predictions UK provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.