Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Filippo Romano and Jack Pinnington Jones are scheduled to meet in the Ilkley tournament on 11 June 2026, with the market currently reflecting near-certainty that the match will be completed and produce a decisive winner. The settlement window extends to 18 June, allowing a seven-day buffer for rescheduling should weather or other disruptions affect the original fixture. The 100% implied probability for a completed match suggests traders are pricing in high confidence that both players will arrive and the tournament will proceed without cancellation.

Historical precedent from ATP and WTA grass-court events indicates that Ilkley, as a smaller ATP 250 tournament, has maintained reliable scheduling records compared to larger Grand Slam venues. Matches at this level rarely extend beyond the seven-day resolution window unless severe weather systems or player injury forces substantial delays. The early-morning start time (5:00 AM ET, typical for European morning broadcasts) reduces exposure to afternoon thunderstorms common in English June weather, further supporting completion odds.

Traders should monitor official ATP communications regarding tournament status and player withdrawals in the fortnight preceding the match. Recent tournament schedules from the ATP website and Ilkley's official announcements will signal any fixture changes. Player injury reports or late withdrawals from either Romano or Pinnington Jones could shift the market sharply, though the current probability reflects baseline expectations that both competitors will be fit and present. Any announcement of tournament postponement or venue changes would be the primary catalyst for market movement away from the current consensus.

Methodology

This page tracks Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. Election Predictions UK routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Election Predictions UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Election Predictions UK?

Zero. Election Predictions UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Election Predictions UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.