Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PolyGram Pick polygram.ink |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open on PolyGram → |
Polymarket polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open on PolyGram → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open on PolyGram → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open on PolyGram → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open on PolyGram → |
Live odds for Polymarket-based markets come from the Polygon order book. Non-Polymarket venues show attributes only; clicking any row opens the market on PolyGram.
Active sub-markets
| Geneva Open: Learner Tien vs Alexander Bublik | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Completed Match | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Geneva Open: Learner Tien vs Alexander Bublik Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Geneva Open: Learner Tien vs Alexander Bublik Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Geneva Open: Learner Tien vs Alexander Bublik Match O/U 23.5 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Geneva Open: Learner Tien vs Alexander Bublik Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Market context
This market refers to the tennis match between Learner Tien and Alexander Bublik in the Geneva Open, originally scheduled for May 22, 2026 at 9:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Learner Tien' if Learner Tien advances against Alexander Bublik. This market will resolve to 'Alexander Bublik' if Alexander Bublik advances against Learner Tien. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this marke
Methodology
This page tracks Geneva Open: Learner Tien vs Alexander Bublik across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. PolyGram routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?
- Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
Trade Geneva Open: Learner Tien vs Alexander Bublik on PolyGram
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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