Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Marta Kostyuk and Mirra Andreeva are scheduled to meet in the Roland Garros women's draw on 4 June 2026. The market currently implies a 55 per cent probability that Kostyuk advances, reflecting modest confidence in the Ukrainian player despite Andreeva's rapid ascent through the professional ranks. Both players are in their mid-twenties and have demonstrated capacity to compete at Grand Slam level, though neither has yet won a major title.

Kostyuk's record against comparable opponents suggests she performs more consistently in best-of-three formats on clay courts. Her baseline game and defensive capabilities have yielded respectable runs at Roland Garros in prior years, though she has not advanced beyond the quarter-final stage. Andreeva, by contrast, represents the emerging generation of Russian-trained players and has shown explosive improvement in 2025–2026, with several WTA 500 titles and deep runs at Masters events. Historical precedent indicates that younger players with momentum often underperform expectations at majors when facing experienced competitors who have navigated the tournament's physical demands before.

Traders should monitor both players' form in the weeks preceding the tournament, particularly their performance at the Rome Masters and other clay-court events in May 2026. Injury reports and surface-specific practice schedules will provide concrete signals about readiness. The settlement window closes on 11 June at 13:00 UTC, allowing seven days beyond the scheduled date for completion. Any withdrawal or cancellation prior to play would trigger a 50-50 resolution, a material risk given the demanding schedule leading into Roland Garros.

Methodology

This page tracks Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. Election Predictions UK routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Election Predictions UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Election Predictions UK?

Zero. Election Predictions UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.