Market statistics
- Total volume
- $1.8M
- 24h volume
- $1.7M
- Open interest
- $1.0M
Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Available prediction outcomes (11)
Sorted by descending live probability. Click any outcome to trade it on PolyGram.
Market context
Elina Svitolina and Marta Kostyuk are scheduled to meet in the women's singles draw at Roland Garros on 2 June 2026. Both players are Ukrainian nationals competing on the professional tennis circuit. The market currently reflects a 100% implied probability, suggesting traders expect the match to proceed as scheduled and be completed within the settlement window closing 9 June 2026.
Historical context for Ukrainian players at Roland Garros shows mixed reliability in fixture completion. Svitolina has competed regularly at the French Open since 2014, reaching the quarter-finals in 2015 and 2018, whilst Kostyuk, the younger player, has made steady progress through qualifying and main-draw rounds in recent editions. Neither player has a documented pattern of late withdrawals or scheduling conflicts at this Grand Slam. The 100% probability reflects confidence that both players will be fit and available for their scheduled encounter, though this remains contingent on injury status in the weeks preceding the tournament.
Traders should monitor injury reports and warm-up tournament results through May 2026, particularly from events like the Italian Open and Madrid Masters where both players typically compete. WTA official draw confirmations and any scheduling changes announced by the French Tennis Federation will be critical. The early morning start time (5:00 AM ET) presents no historical barrier to completion. Any withdrawal, illness, or injury announcement from either player's camp in the fortnight before the match would be the primary catalyst for market repricing away from the current consensus.
Wikipedia Context
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Stade Roland GarrosStade Roland Garros is a complex of tennis courts, including stadiums, located in Paris that hosts the French Open. That tournament, also known as Roland Garros, is a major tennis championship played annually in late May and early June. The complex is named after Roland Garros (1888–1918), a pioneering French aviator, and was constructed in 1928 to host Fran
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Roland Garros (aviator)Eugène Adrien Roland Georges Garros was a French aviation pioneer and fighter pilot. A self-taught pilot, he performed many early aviation feats such as the first-ever airplane crossing of the Mediterranean Sea in 1913. He later joined the French Army and became one of the earliest fighter pilots during First World War.
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Roland Garros AirportRoland Garros Airport, formerly known as Gillot Airport, is an international airport located in Sainte-Marie on Réunion, France. The airport is 7 kilometres (3.8 NM) east of Saint-Denis; it is named after the French aviator Roland Garros, who was born in Saint-Denis.
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French OpenRoland-Garros, also known as the French Open, is a tennis tournament organized by the French Tennis Federation annually at Stade Roland Garros in Paris, France. It is chronologically the second of the four Grand Slam tennis events every year, held after the Australian Open and before Wimbledon and the US Open. It was established in 1891 but it did not become
Methodology
Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.
Resolution & payout
Resolution source: This market settles from the official publication at https://www.wtatennis.com/scores. A proposer submits the result to the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon, the two-hour challenge window opens, and the smart contract pays out in USDC.
For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.
FAQ
- What resolution source is used for elections?
- Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.
- Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?
- Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like PolyGram route into the same order book at 0% fees.
- How fast do political markets react to news?
- High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.
- Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?
- Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.
- Which political events have the biggest volume?
- US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.
Trade Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk on PolyGram
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