Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of global oil transits, has experienced significant disruption since October 2023 following Houthi attacks on commercial shipping. Daily transit calls—measured by IMF Portwatch arrivals data across container, tanker, dry bulk and general cargo vessels—have remained well below historical norms of 60+ vessels per week. The market asks whether a 7-day moving average will recover to 60 or above by end-May 2026, with the crowd currently assigning just 1% probability to normalisation within that timeframe.

Comparable disruptions to major chokepoints offer limited precedent for rapid recovery. The Suez Canal blockage in March 2021 took roughly three months to clear, though shipping resumed within weeks at reduced capacity. The current Hormuz situation differs in that it stems from sustained, deliberate attacks rather than a single incident, suggesting normalisation depends on geopolitical de-escalation rather than infrastructure repair. Shipping patterns have adapted through rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope, a shift that typically persists even after immediate threats recede, as operators rebuild confidence and adjust contract terms.

The critical catalyst remains the trajectory of Houthi operations and any US-led or regional military intervention. Recent statements from the Houthis indicate no intention to cease attacks absent a ceasefire in Gaza, a condition unlikely to be met by May 2026. Lloyd's List and maritime security analysts have noted that even temporary ceasefires produce only modest upticks in transit activity. Without either a sustained regional peace agreement or a decisive shift in Houthi capability, the 60-vessel threshold remains a distant prospect, explaining the market's extreme scepticism.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Election Predictions UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Election Predictions UK?

Zero. Election Predictions UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.