Trump out as President by June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

Donald Trump would need to resign, be removed through impeachment and conviction, or be declared constitutionally ineligible before 30 June 2026 for this market to resolve affirmatively. The settlement window covers Trump's first eighteen months in his second term, following his November 2024 election victory. Permanent removal is the only qualifying condition; temporary invocations of the 25th Amendment do not trigger resolution.

The 1% implied probability reflects the rarity of presidential removal in American history. No sitting president has ever been removed through impeachment and conviction; Richard Nixon resigned in 1974 to avoid near-certain removal over Watergate, whilst Andrew Johnson and Bill Clinton survived impeachment votes. The 25th Amendment has never been invoked to remove a president permanently. Constitutional ineligibility findings remain untested at the presidential level, though several states attempted to bar Trump from ballots in 2024 under the 14th Amendment's insurrection clause before the Supreme Court intervened. These historical precedents suggest removal requires either voluntary resignation or an extraordinary political rupture.

Near-term catalysts centre on Trump's legal exposure. Multiple criminal cases remain pending, including federal charges related to classified documents and January 6th; sentencing in the New York state case occurred in January 2025. Congressional Republicans control both chambers, making impeachment unlikely absent dramatic circumstances. Health concerns could theoretically prompt resignation, though no credible reporting suggests imminent medical issues. Markets are effectively pricing removal as contingent on either a severe legal crisis forcing resignation or an unprecedented political fracture within the Republican Party sufficient to enable conviction.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Trump out as President by June 30? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Election Predictions UK?

Zero. Election Predictions UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.