Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Negotiations between the United States and Iran over nuclear policy, sanctions relief, and regional security have repeatedly stalled since the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Donald Trump withdrew the US from that agreement in 2018, reimposing sanctions. A new bilateral accord signed by either Trump or another US official would represent a significant reversal of recent diplomatic trajectory, requiring both parties to overcome years of escalating tensions, proxy conflicts, and mutual mistrust. The 18% probability reflects scepticism that such a breakthrough is achievable within the 18-month window, though not dismissal of the possibility entirely.

Historical precedent offers limited guidance. The JCPOA itself took over a decade of intermittent talks to conclude, involved multiple countries beyond the US and Iran, and faced immediate reversal under Trump's administration. Bilateral US-Iran agreements of substance are rarer still; the last significant accord was the 1981 Algiers Accords resolving the hostage crisis. The current market is implicitly leaning on the assumption that Trump, if re-elected, might pursue unconventional diplomacy with Iran as part of a broader Middle East realignment, though no campaign statements have signalled this as a priority.

Traders should monitor statements from Trump's foreign policy advisers, any scheduled meetings with Iranian officials, and developments in regional conflicts that might create negotiating pressure. Reuters reported in late 2024 that Trump's team was exploring various diplomatic channels, though specifics remained unclear. The market's low probability suggests most participants view a signed agreement as unlikely absent major geopolitical shifts or explicit campaign commitments to such negotiations.

Methodology

This page tracks Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. Election Predictions UK routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Election Predictions UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Election Predictions UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Election Predictions UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.