2026 U.S. Open: To Make the Cut

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The 2026 U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills is already under way, and the cut for the weekend is the familiar U.S. Open standard: the top 60 and ties after 36 holes. Official tournament information confirms the championship runs from 18–21 June and uses that 60-and-ties cut rule, while PGA Tour coverage notes there is no cut after the third round.[5][7]

A 0% YES price points to a market that is effectively treating qualification as settled or nearly settled, rather than as a live coin-flip on Friday evening. That fits the structure of major-championship cut markets: once two rounds are complete, the main uncertainty is not the rule itself but whether a player is already safely inside the projected line, or mathematically unable to recover if they are too far back.[5][7] Comparable coverage at Shinnecock has centred on a projected cut around four over par, with DataGolf giving that number the strongest likelihood in live updates.[1][3]

The main catalyst now is the final second-round scoring picture, not any off-course calendar event. Traders should watch the official leaderboard and cut-line updates, because the result turns on the low-60-plus-ties threshold and can shift as the round finishes and ties are resolved.[2][3][7] Recent reporting from Golfweek and Sporting News both show the market is leaning on real-time cut-line data rather than broader tournament narratives.[2][3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for 2026 U.S. Open: To Make the Cut plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Election Predictions UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Election Predictions UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Election Predictions UK?

Zero. Election Predictions UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.