Highest temperature in Amsterdam on August 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

Amsterdam's highest temperature on 15 August 2026 will be measured at Schiphol Airport and resolved against Weather Underground's Daily Observations table. The current 0% probability suggests traders expect temperatures to fall outside whatever range this market has defined, or that the market structure itself carries execution risk around data sourcing.

August temperatures in Amsterdam historically cluster between 18–24°C, with extremes rare. The city's maritime climate and northern latitude mean heat waves are episodic rather than sustained; the 40.7°C recorded across parts of the Netherlands in summer 2022 did not occur in Amsterdam proper. Weather Underground's Daily Observations table, which this market privileges over summary figures, occasionally diverges from airport station readings due to timing and sensor placement. Traders should note that Schiphol's location on polder land near water moderates temperatures compared to urban centre measurements, typically running 1–2°C cooler than central Amsterdam during warm spells.

The key dependency is whether August 2026 experiences an Atlantic ridge pattern or Atlantic low-pressure system. European weather forecasting models, updated weekly by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, will provide the most reliable guidance as the date approaches. Traders should monitor whether June and July 2026 establish anomalously warm conditions that might persist into mid-August, as this would shift probability distributions upward. The settlement window closes at noon UTC on the day itself, leaving only morning observations available for resolution.

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Amsterdam on August 15? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Election Predictions UK provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?

Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.