Highest temperature in Amsterdam on July 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

Amsterdam’s reading on 30 July is set by the day’s *high* at Schiphol, so the market is really about whether the airport’s maximum temperature lands in an unusually warm band rather than the city’s broad monthly average. July in Amsterdam typically tops out in the low 20s Celsius: one climate guide puts the average July high at about 22.5°C, while another July history page shows the end-of-month average high around 21–24°C depending on the dataset used.[12][1] That makes a very hot outcome possible, but not the base case, and it helps explain why the crowd has priced **0% YES** if the contract is tied to a specific upper range rather than the more common 20s band.[12][7]

The historical comparator is that Amsterdam can spike well above its average on individual summer days, but those extremes are still infrequent. A KNMI-linked statistics page shows July daily maxima in the low-to-mid 30s on some dates, including a 34.4°C record for 9 July, while recent monthly histories for Amsterdam also show several July highs in the 20s and low 30s rather than anything close to a permanent heatwave.[4][3] For a contract that resolves on the highest temperature recorded in a single day at Schiphol, the key question is not the monthly mean but whether a short-lived warm surge pushes the day into the relevant range.

The catalyst to watch is the meteorological setup over the Netherlands: any late-afternoon sunshine, wind shift, or a passing front can move the airport’s maximum by several degrees. Traders should focus on the forecast for Amsterdam Schiphol and any updates from Dutch or airport-linked weather reporting, because the settlement source is a station-specific daily maximum, not a citywide average.[11][4] If forecasts show temperatures clustering in the low 20s Celsius, the market will tend to remain anchored away from higher bands; if a warmer-than-normal reading develops, the highest-temperature bucket becomes materially more live.[7][12]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Amsterdam on July 30? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Election Predictions UK provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.