Highest temperature in Atlanta on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market seeks to predict the highest temperature recorded at Atlanta's Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport on 13 July 2026, with settlement based on historical weather data from Weather Underground. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the specific temperature range or awaiting clarification on which bands are available for trading.

Atlanta's July temperatures show consistent patterns across decades. The city's average high in mid-July hovers around 32°C (90°F), with record highs reaching 39°C (102°F) in extreme years. The National Weather Service records for the airport station indicate that temperatures exceeding 35°C (95°F) occur in roughly one-third of July days, whilst readings above 37°C (99°F) remain relatively rare, occurring perhaps once every five to ten years. The 1980 heat wave and 2019 summer provide reference points for unusually hot periods, though neither produced record-breaking temperatures specifically on mid-July dates.

Traders monitoring this market should track seasonal climate patterns as spring 2026 progresses, particularly any emerging consensus from meteorological forecasts issued in early July. La Niña or El Niño conditions, if present, could shift temperature probabilities. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's monthly outlooks, typically released around the first of each month, will offer guidance on whether summer 2026 is tracking toward above or below-normal temperatures for the Southeast. Additionally, any significant drought conditions developing across Georgia in the months preceding July could elevate maximum temperatures, whilst tropical systems or unusual cloud cover could suppress them.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Atlanta on July 13? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.