Highest temperature in Beijing on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing’s afternoon heat is the real-world event behind this market, and the key question is whether the airport station reaches the upper band of its August range or stays closer to a cooler day. Long-run climate pages for Beijing put early- to mid-August highs around 31–34°C, with the 10 August average near 33.7°C in one historical table and around 31°C on another August climate summary, so a reading below the low 30s would be unexceptional, but not especially hot for the date.[16][6]

That is why the current **0% YES** crowd signal is best read as a statement that traders do not yet see a clear route to a top-end reading rather than as proof of certainty. Recent weather-history entries show Beijing can vary sharply from one August day to the next, with nearby dates ranging from the high 20s to the low 30s Celsius, so the market will usually track whether the day develops the kind of sustained sunshine and weak rain risk that supports a late-afternoon peak.[9][13]

The main catalyst to watch is the live Weather Underground daily observations feed for Beijing Capital International Airport, because settlement depends on the highest temperature in that table rather than the headline summary. If the morning starts around the mid-20s Celsius, the market will lean heavily on whether the afternoon forecast holds up through the peak heating window; any cloud, showers, or stronger winds would reduce the chance of reaching the top bracket, while a dry, sunny day would pull the probability higher. Time and Date’s Beijing forecast currently shows a hot, dry setup with a daytime high near 91°F and 0% precipitation chance, which is the sort of backdrop that would keep traders watching for upside rather than a cold miss.[13]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Beijing on August 10? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?

Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.