Highest temperature in Beijing on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing's highest temperature on 11 August 2026 will be measured at the Capital International Airport Station and resolved against Weather Underground's Daily Observations table. The market currently shows 0% probability across all temperature ranges, suggesting either insufficient trader participation or expectation that settlement data will not be available by the deadline.

August represents peak summer in Beijing, with historical daily highs typically ranging from 29°C to 33°C during this period. Data from the China Meteorological Administration shows that extreme heat events—temperatures exceeding 35°C—occur in roughly one-third of Augusts in the capital, though such occurrences cluster around early to mid-month rather than the 11th specifically. The 0% crowd probability appears disconnected from seasonal norms, indicating the market may lack sufficient liquidity or trader confidence in Weather Underground's data availability for this specific date and location.

Traders should monitor Weather Underground's operational status and data collection protocols for Beijing Capital International Airport through summer 2026, as the resolution mechanism depends entirely on that source's Daily Observations table rather than alternative meteorological databases. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 11 August, creating a tight deadline for data confirmation. Any disruptions to the airport station's weather monitoring equipment or delays in data publication could affect resolution, making the operational reliability of the specific monitoring station a critical dependency rather than weather patterns alone.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Beijing on August 11? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.

Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?

Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.