Highest temperature in Beijing on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market hinges on whether Beijing’s highest temperature on 10 July 2026 at the Capital International Airport reaches the 29°C threshold, with crowd-implied probability sitting at 97% YES. Historical data shows July is Beijing’s hottest month, with daily highs typically around 31°C and rarely dipping below 28°C. In 1959, the airport recorded 37°C on 10 July, while 2001 saw 40°C on 11 July, confirming that temperatures well above 29°C are standard for this period[4][1]. Even in cooler years, daily highs seldom fall below 28°C, making the 29°C bar a low-risk proposition for traders[3].

Traders should monitor real-time weather updates from Wunderground, the official resolution source, as well as any sudden shifts in humidity or cloud cover that could suppress peak temperatures[9]. While no scheduled political debates or campaign-finance disclosures directly influence weather, authorities have recently urged residents to limit outdoor exposure during extreme heat, reflecting heightened awareness of rising temperatures in northern China[2]. The market leans heavily on climatological certainty rather than external catalysts, with Reuters confirming China recorded its hottest July in recent history in 2024, reinforcing the trend of elevated summer temperatures[10]. Given thin trading volume and forecast risk ahead of the noon resolution, the 97% probability appears well-supported by historical precedent.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Beijing on July 10? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Election Predictions UK provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.