Highest temperature in Beijing on July 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing is currently experiencing its hottest month, with July 2026 forecast to see daily highs reaching up to 99°F (37.2°C) as the city enters its peak summer heatwave period[5]. The market’s 0% implied probability for a specific temperature outcome appears to stem from the extreme volatility of daily peaks, where recorded highs in recent years have surged to 40°C, with an all-time record of 41.9°C set in 1999[1][2]. Historical data shows that while average highs cluster around 31.1°C, temperatures rarely fall below 25.6°C or exceed 35.6°C, creating a wide distribution that makes pinpointing a single range difficult for traders[3].

Traders should monitor the Beijing Meteorological Bureau’s daily heatwave declarations, which often trigger emergency cooling protocols and influence temperature readings at the Capital International Airport station. Recent reports indicate authorities are urging residents to limit outdoor exposure due to record-breaking heat, a signal that peak temperatures may exceed seasonal norms[2]. The market leans heavily on the Wunderground resolution source, which aggregates real-time data from the ZBAA station; any sudden shift in cloud cover or precipitation, such as the patchy rain observed in recent days, could drastically alter the final settlement figure[6]. With China having recorded its hottest month in recent history in July 2017, the current atmospheric conditions suggest a high likelihood of temperatures approaching or surpassing the 37°C threshold[10].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Beijing on July 11? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Election Predictions UK provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.