Highest temperature in Beijing on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing is entering its hottest month, with July historically delivering peak heat that frequently breaches 35°C and occasionally reaches 40°C at the Capital International Airport station. The market’s current 0% YES probability implies the crowd expects temperatures to stay below the lowest defined range, a stance that contradicts recent climatic trends where the city recorded its hottest July on record in 2023 and 2024, with highs hitting 40°C and 41.8°C respectively [1][3][5].

Historical data shows daily high temperatures in Beijing during July average around 31°C (88°F), rarely falling below 26°C (78°F) or exceeding 35°C (96°F), with the month’s peak average occurring around 17 July [2]. Given that 12 July sits just five days before this typical peak, the 0% probability appears misaligned with the region’s established pattern of extreme heat, especially following China’s national record for the hottest month in recent history in July 2024 [9].

Traders should monitor real-time Wunderground updates for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station (ZBAA) as the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC today, since resolution depends entirely on the highest recorded temperature for 12 July 2026 [10]. While no scheduled political debates or campaign disclosures directly influence weather, the market is leaning on the immediate catalyst of the day’s actual meteorological reading, which will override any prior probabilistic assumptions once the data is published [10].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Beijing on July 12? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.