Highest temperature in Beijing on July 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing's weather in late July typically falls within the city's hottest period, with historical records showing maximum temperatures frequently exceeding 35°C during this season. The settlement window closes at midday on 21 July 2026, capturing the peak heating hours before afternoon thunderstorms potentially develop. Historical data from Beijing Capital International Airport Station—the official resolution source—shows July averages around 26°C, though daily highs routinely reach the mid-to-high 30s. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the specific temperature bands offered or expect conditions substantially cooler than typical for this date.

Comparable July days at Beijing's airport station provide the primary benchmark for calibration. Over the past decade, maximum temperatures on mid-to-late July dates have ranged between 32°C and 38°C, with 2010 recording 41.1°C as an extreme outlier during an exceptional heatwave. The China Meteorological Administration publishes seasonal forecasts in June, though sub-seasonal precision for individual days remains limited beyond two weeks. Traders should monitor early July 2026 weather patterns and any anomalous atmospheric conditions—such as persistent high-pressure systems or unusual monsoon behaviour—that might shift temperatures materially above or below the 35–37°C range typical for this period.

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Beijing on July 21? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Election Predictions UK provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.