Highest temperature in Beijing on July 25?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing's weather in late July typically falls within a narrow band of high temperatures. Historical data from the China Meteorological Administration shows that July 25th averages a high of 29–31°C at Beijing Capital International Airport, with extremes ranging from 25°C in unusually cool years to 37°C during heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the exact range thresholds or awaiting clarity on how Wunderground will record the day's peak temperature. Comparable July dates over the past two decades show that temperatures exceeding 35°C occur in roughly one year out of every three, whilst readings below 26°C are rare events tied to significant weather systems.

The primary catalyst affecting this market is the accuracy and timing of Wunderground's historical data publication for July 25, 2026. Settlement depends entirely on the highest temperature recorded at Beijing Capital International Airport Station on that specific date, with the resolution window closing at 12:00 UTC on July 25th. Traders should monitor whether Wunderground updates its historical records promptly after the date passes, as delays or data corrections could affect settlement timing. Secondary considerations include any unusual atmospheric patterns developing in East Asia during summer 2026, though such forecasts remain speculative at this distance. The market's current zero probability likely reflects the absence of binding temperature forecasts rather than genuine market conviction about the outcome.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Beijing on July 25? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.