Highest temperature in Beijing on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing’s 31 July maximum is a straight weather outcome, and the market is really asking where the day’s highest reading at Beijing Capital International Airport ends up relative to the listed ranges. July is the city’s warmest month on average, with typical highs around 31.8°C, but the date still sits in a season where both ordinary heat and sharp spikes are common.[1][15]

For framing, the historical guide is that late-July Beijing often prints in the low- to mid-30s, with the 31 July climatological average high around 31°C and the date’s long-run extreme high recorded at 37°C in the available historical table.[2] Broader Beijing records show that summer heat can run much higher than the monthly norm, with the city’s all-time July record high reaching 41.9°C in the climate box data.[4] Against that backdrop, a 0% implied chance for the lowest outcome band suggests the market is leaning on the idea that an unusually cool finish is far less likely than an ordinary warm reading or a hot afternoon.[2][4]

The main catalyst is the day’s actual airport observations, because the market resolves to the highest temperature recorded on 31 July at Beijing Capital International Airport Station via Wunderground.[14] Traders should watch whether Beijing sits under a hot continental air mass or breaks into cloud, rain, or convective showers, since July is also one of the wetter months and rainfall can cap afternoon highs even when the morning starts warm.[1][2][11] The relevant dependency is simple: once the airport’s daily peak is set, the final band follows that reading, so late-day heating and any passing rain remain the key short-term drivers.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Beijing on July 31? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.