Highest temperature in Beijing on June 15?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Beijing's weather on 15 June 2026 will be measured against historical temperature records for that specific date and location. Mid-June in Beijing typically falls within the early summer monsoon season, when daily highs routinely exceed 30°C. The settlement mechanism relies on data from Beijing Capital International Airport Station, the official meteorological observation point, with resolution sourced through Weather Underground's historical records.

Historical temperature patterns for mid-June in Beijing show consistent clustering in the 28–35°C range over the past two decades. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about which temperature bracket will occur or the market structure presents resolution ambiguity. Comparable June 15th observations from 2015–2024 indicate that temperatures below 25°C are rare but not unprecedented during anomalous weather systems, whilst readings above 36°C occur occasionally during heat waves. The wide range of plausible outcomes—from cool, wet monsoon conditions to intense heat—explains the current lack of consensus.

Traders should monitor seasonal weather forecasts released in late May and early June 2026, particularly from the China Meteorological Administration and international models tracking monsoon intensity. Unusual atmospheric patterns—such as early heat waves or delayed monsoon onset—would shift expectations materially. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on 15 June, meaning final forecasts from 12–24 hours prior will carry the most weight for late trading activity. Historical volatility in Beijing's June temperatures suggests meaningful probability shifts are likely as the date approaches.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Beijing on June 15? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Election Predictions UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Election Predictions UK?

Zero. Election Predictions UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Election Predictions UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.