Highest temperature in Beijing on June 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is the peak daily temperature recorded at Beijing Capital International Airport on 28 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. With the crowd-implied probability for "YES" sitting at 0%, the market currently dismisses the possibility of the temperature exceeding the highest threshold, a stance that contradicts recent historical extremes. In June 2023, Beijing shattered a 60-year record when temperatures soared to 41.1°C, the city's second-highest reading ever, as heatwaves returned to northern China[1][3]. Historical averages for June typically see daily highs exceeding 30°C, with roughly ten days reaching 35°C or more, suggesting that a 0% probability for the upper range is an outlier compared to the region's blistering summer climate[4][5].

Traders must monitor upcoming weather forecasts and official announcements from Chinese meteorological authorities as the primary catalysts, rather than political debates or campaign-finance disclosures, which hold little relevance for this meteorological outcome. The market is leaning heavily on the immediate atmospheric conditions and the reliability of the Wunderground data source, which will resolve the event based on the highest temperature recorded for all times on that day[2]. While political events often drive volume in election-focused markets, this specific prediction relies entirely on the physical heatwave intensity, making real-time weather bulletins from the AccuWeather or Reuters weather desks the critical dependencies for any shift in probability[8]. The absence of political catalysts means the price action will remain tethered strictly to the evolving forecast for the Beijing region.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Beijing on June 28? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.