Highest temperature in Beijing on June 4?

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Market context

Beijing's weather in early June typically falls within the warm-to-hot range as the city transitions into summer. Historical data from the Beijing Capital International Airport Station shows that early June temperatures commonly peak between 28°C and 32°C, though extremes have occasionally reached into the mid-30s during particularly intense heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the exact temperature range or are awaiting clearer forecasting data as the settlement date approaches.

Seasonal patterns provide the primary framework for assessing June 4th temperatures. Over the past decade, early June highs at Beijing's airport station have ranged from approximately 26°C to 35°C depending on prevailing weather systems. Years with active monsoon influence tend toward cooler readings in the 28–31°C band, whilst high-pressure systems and continental air masses can push temperatures toward 33–35°C. The current flat probability distribution reflects genuine meteorological uncertainty rather than consensus around any particular range.

Traders should monitor weather forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and international models as June approaches. Seasonal indicators—including sea-surface temperatures in the Western Pacific and the timing of the East Asian summer monsoon onset—will influence whether cooler or warmer conditions dominate. The settlement window closes at midday on June 4th, meaning only morning and early-afternoon observations count; this timing typically captures the day's peak temperature but excludes any evening cooling.

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Beijing on June 4? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. Election Predictions UK routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Election Predictions UK?

Zero. Election Predictions UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Election Predictions UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.