Highest temperature in Busan on August 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market concerns the highest temperature recorded at Gimhae International Airport in Busan on 15 August 2026, measured in degrees Celsius using Weather Underground's Daily Observations table as the authoritative source. Busan's August temperatures typically peak in the 28–32°C range, though heat waves can push readings several degrees higher. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the specific threshold being tested or expect conditions well below historical August extremes.

Busan's August climate is shaped by the East Asian summer monsoon and occasional tropical systems. Historical data from the Korea Meteorological Administration shows that mid-August highs at Gimhae have exceeded 33°C in roughly one-third of years since 2000, with the station recording 34–35°C on several occasions during heat waves. The current probability assignment may reflect uncertainty about which temperature band the market is actually testing, since the resolution criteria specify a range without stating the exact boundaries traders are evaluating.

Traders should monitor long-range weather forecasts issued in early August 2026, particularly from the Korea Meteorological Administration and international models tracking potential heat domes or tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific. Any significant atmospheric pattern shifts—such as a strengthened Tibetan high-pressure system or tropical moisture influx—would materially alter the likelihood of extreme heat. The settlement window closes at midday on 15 August, leaving minimal time for forecast revisions once the day's conditions become apparent.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Busan on August 15? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.

Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?

Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.