Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu’s August heat is the real-world event behind this market, with the contract settling on the day’s highest temperature at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport. Climatology points to a warm, humid start to the month: WeatherSpark puts the average daily high on 1 August at 87°F, while other historical summaries place early-August highs around 30°C to 34°C, with record extremes well above that level[1][4][16]. That makes the market structurally sensitive to whether the airport sees a standard summer peak or an outlier hot spell, rather than to the monthly mean.

The current 0% implied chance of a higher bracket is easier to read against that baseline than as a literal forecast of no heat. Chengdu’s August distribution is broad enough that temperatures often sit in the high-20s or low-30s Celsius, but the upper tail can push into the mid-30s when the basin is under persistent heat and weaker cloud cover[2][3][16]. The most relevant historical comparison is that early August is already close to the seasonal high point, so any move in probability is likely to come from forecast revisions around the airport’s daytime maximum rather than from a long-run average.

For traders, the key catalysts are short-range forecast updates, especially the 24- to 72-hour temperature outlook for Chengdu, plus any signal of a heat advisory, monsoon disruption, or cloud-and-rain regime that would cap the daytime high. The market is leaning on the weather setup at the airport itself, so the decisive input will be the local daily maximum rather than citywide conditions elsewhere in Sichuan[14]. Current month-ahead climate guides still describe August as broadly hot and muggy in Chengdu, but the resolution will follow the single observed maximum on the Wunderground station page[9][18].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 1? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.