Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu's highest temperature on 14 August 2026 will be measured at Shuangliu International Airport Station and resolved against Weather Underground's Daily Observations table. The market currently shows 0% probability across all temperature ranges, suggesting either insufficient trader engagement or expectation that resolution data will not materialise as scheduled by the 12:00 UTC settlement window.

Chengdu experiences peak summer heat in mid-August, with historical August highs typically ranging between 32–35°C. The city's location in the Sichuan Basin creates a humid subtropical climate where afternoon temperatures regularly exceed 33°C during this period. August 2023 saw Chengdu reach 38.5°C, whilst August 2022 peaked at 37.1°C, providing benchmarks for extreme versus typical outcomes. The 0% crowd probability appears disconnected from these seasonal patterns, suggesting traders may be uncertain about data availability or the specific measurement methodology rather than dismissing the likelihood of heat itself.

The critical dependency is Weather Underground's Daily Observations table availability for 14 August 2026. Traders should monitor whether the platform maintains consistent reporting from Shuangliu station through the settlement window. Recent weather data disruptions in China have occasionally delayed or complicated international platform reporting. The distinction between the Daily Observations table and the Day High & Low summary section creates a potential resolution point; traders must verify which source Weather Underground prioritises when discrepancies occur. No scheduled weather events or atmospheric anomalies currently forecast unusual conditions for that date.

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 14? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Election Predictions UK provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?

Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.