Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu’s August heat is the real-world event behind this market, with the settlement tied to the highest temperature recorded at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station on 6 August. Long-run climate data point to a city that is typically hot, humid and often rainy in August, with average highs around 30°C and occasional spikes well into the mid-30s Celsius, so the relevant question is whether the day finishes in a broadly seasonal range or pushes towards an upper-tail outcome.[1][4][6][20]

That history matters because the current crowd-implied 0% YES suggests the market is pricing a very low chance of a notably high reading, even though Chengdu can still produce 33°C-35°C days in August. Comparable forecasts from recent weather services have continued to show Chengdu in the low-30s Celsius around this part of the month, including a Chinese city forecast of 21°C-35°C and independent August guidance centred on roughly 24°C-34°C, which argues that the distribution is not unusually cold by local standards.[4][9][17]

The main catalyst to watch is the day’s actual observation profile at the airport station, not the broader city forecast, because the market resolves off the recorded maximum rather than a forecasted high. Traders will therefore be leaning most on short-range temperature updates and whether any late-morning to mid-afternoon surge develops before showers or cloud cover cap the maximum; recent city forecasts have already flagged rain or showers for Chengdu, which can blunt the top end even in a hot summer pattern.[3][5][9]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 6? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

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UK Frequently Asked Questions

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

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Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.

Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?

Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.