Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu is experiencing peak summer heat as July 11, 2026, unfolds, with the city’s meteorological profile historically supporting highs between 30°C and 35°C, though recent years show a trend toward 35°C+ extremes due to intensifying regional warming[1][3]. The current 0% crowd-implied probability for any specific outcome suggests traders are either hedging against uncertainty or awaiting definitive data before committing, a stance that contrasts with the city’s documented capacity for extreme heat, including a record 38.6°C recorded in August 2022[9].

Historical parallels indicate that mid-July in Chengdu frequently produces temperatures near the upper end of the seasonal range, with the middle ten days of July and August being the hottest period of the year[4]. Comparable cases from 2022 and 2026 show that 37°C is not anomalous; indeed, Chengdu hit 37°C on July 6, 2026, resolving a similar market at that outcome and validating the upper-range potential for this week[10]. This precedent frames the current 0% probability as potentially premature, given the station’s location at Shuangliu International Airport, which aligns with the Wunderground data source used for settlement[1].

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground’s daily history page for ZUUU, the official resolution source, as temperatures can spike rapidly during afternoon hours[1]. The China Meteorological Administration has reported that since July 11, temperatures exceeding 40°C have primarily affected southeastern regions, but Chengdu’s fuggy, Singapore-like conditions in July mean even 38°C is plausible[3][6]. No scheduled political debates or campaign disclosures influence this weather market; the sole catalyst is the hourly temperature feed, with settlement finalising at 12:00:00Z on 11 July 2026.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 11? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.