Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu’s July climate is defined by intense humidity and frequent rainfall, with average daily highs hovering around 31°C and afternoon peaks occasionally reaching 33°C. The 0% implied probability for any specific high-temperature range suggests the market currently expects a resolution outside the most likely bands, or perhaps reflects a lack of sufficient data to price the event accurately given the settlement window extends to July 2026. Historically, sustained extreme heat comparable to eastern China’s interior is rare in Chengdu, where the 24-hour mean stays near 25°C despite sporadic afternoon spikes [2].

Traders should monitor long-range meteorological models and seasonal climate declarations from the China Meteorological Administration, as these often precede shifts in temperature forecasts for the Sichuan basin. While no immediate political debates or campaign-finance disclosures directly influence weather outcomes, the market’s current pricing may be leaning on the absence of confirmed heatwave warnings for mid-July 2026, a period typically marked by moderate precipitation and 50% daily rain probability [1]. Any deviation from the norm—such as an official declaration of an extreme heat event—would likely trigger rapid poll movements in related weather prediction markets.

Given the settlement date falls during Chengdu’s rainy season, with average daily precipitation of 17mm on wet days, the likelihood of record-breaking temperatures remains statistically constrained unless a significant atmospheric anomaly occurs [1]. The market’s zero probability stance aligns with historical patterns where sustained heat is uncommon, though isolated peaks above 33°C have been recorded in recent summers [2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 20? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Election Predictions UK provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.