Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 23?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu’s hottest reading on 23 July will be set by the maximum temperature reported at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, with the market resolving against the Wunderground daily history page for that site. At 6am UTC, the crowd is leaning towards **38°C** as the most likely outcome, with **39°C** the nearest alternative, which suggests traders are pricing a hot but not extreme afternoon peak.[1]

That pricing sits broadly in line with Chengdu’s July climate, when highs are often in the low 30s Celsius and day-to-day variation can still produce materially different daily maxima. The current 0% yes figure is therefore less a signal of settled certainty than a reflection of how these temperature markets often stay clustered around a few adjacent bands until the day’s actual peak is known; in practice, a single degree can move the result into a different settlement range.[2]

The main catalyst to watch is the live forecast and any late revisions to expected cloud cover, humidity and rainfall, because those factors drive whether Chengdu reaches the upper end of the current range. For traders, the key dependency is not a political calendar but the afternoon evolution of the weather itself: if the forecast holds near 32°C for the coming days, as one recent forecast source indicates, the market is leaning on a warm baseline rather than a heatwave breakout.[2]

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 23? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Election Predictions UK provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

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Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

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High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

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Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.